Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Because unless you have experience in all those things, you have no right to criticize or question Elon Musk.

I ‘ve never been president or an NFL quarterback and I have strong opinions about both. Is that OK?

Depends on your opinion. Mine is that I would pay good money to have them taken off the air. I'm not really a hockey fan.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think the big question is, if I buy stocks from money earned in one country, and sell many years down the line in another, which country tax code do I have to follow?

Tax discussion, strategies and questions

 

[Krugerrand]

I think what MD70 is trying to say is that Tesla has not effectively communicated how they are going to increase production from 1.8M across four plants to 2.4M when no new factories are being built to be ready for production this year.

That’s not actually what he said or he’d have said that. And with your kind of comprehension skills, I hope Tesla doesn’t guide for 2024 because I can’t even imagine how you’ll interpret it.

And just so you don’t think I’m picking on you; I believe a vast majority of people comprehend at your level.

GigaBerlin seems to have trouble increasing production or hiring for it.
GigaMexico hasn’t broken ground. GigaIndia is hasn’t been announced.
GigaChina II hasn’t…. You get the idea.

Yeah, I get the idea via historical data that the less Tesla says the less that information can be used against Tesla. I welcome with open arms for Tesla to say less than nothing about everything until they’re good and ready to speak.

Hopefully, some enthusiasm for growth will be communicated at the Q4 results call and not doom and gloom from an inflation-fearing Elon.

That certainly would lift the spirits of doubters (for all of five seconds). In reality the team will just speak the truth of where they are at in the moment and where they want to be down the road.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I’m glad my first cup of coffee was empty.

Close to priceless!

Pro tip: Put water in before you press the button.

 

[Mengy]

View attachment 1010945Whenever the 50DMA (green) settles between the 100 and 200, it is indication the spring has coiled, and we get a large move. It's coming!

I know stock TA is popular but to me it's largely meaningless. Financial fundamentals are more telling to me than drawing lines on a chart are, and lowered car prices plus compressed margins coupled with slower production growth make me believe we won't be seeing a meaningful TSLA increase for a year or two yet. Not until interest rates drop quite a bit, or we see meaningful revenues coming from new sources like Megapacks or FSD/Bot sales or Gen 3 production.

Just my expectations, though I'd absolutely LOVE to be wrong and see a new ATH in 2024.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

View attachment 1010945Whenever the 50DMA (green) settles between the 100 and 200, it is indication the spring has coiled, and we get a large move. It's coming!

Which direction?

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I know stock TA is popular but to me it's largely meaningless.

When I retire, I plan to do a deep dive on TA. I'm going to try to determine the probabilities associated with established patterns. Maybe produce some kind of ebook if I come up with clear and interesting data.

 

[unk45]

For those that have jumped around countries a lot, what do you do with your portfolio? Do you leave it in your home country or do a ACATS every now and then with each move? Maybe @unk45 is fit to answer that since as Johnny Cash said, he has been everywhere man

And what are the taxes implications? I tried to find a clear answer for this without luck

...

I sent you a PM

 

[cliff harris]

I am a long term holder so I can wait but the last couple of years seem a wasted opportunity in terms of long term planning.

I agree that there have been some mis-steps. But then we had covid + ukraine, and now the red sea. I don't think any multinational companies plans have gone smoothly for the last 5 years...

But to criticize long term planning?
The bot is super-long term
Dojo is long term
Building a flipping lithium refinery is long term planning
FSD is long term

I think you could make a good case that Tesla's short-term planning has fumbled lately, but certainly not its long term planning. Tesla has always 100% been a long-term company. Short-termism would have bought battery packs from 3rd parties, outsourced all the code, still be using mobileye, and would have made a generic looking pickup truck.

 

[CorneliusXX]

The price of LFP appears to be getting crushed at the moment. Interesting to see how this plays out.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1748866795463749795

 

[Stretch2727]

This is interesting given Elon's comments on the unreliability of pouch cells.

BYD to stop pouch type battery production amid durability concerns: report

Electric vehicle maker BYD is reportedly planning to phase out the pouch-type batteries that have been used in its best-selling hybrids.

www.teslarati.com

 

[unk45]

Originally, the short players were trying to drive Tesla to zero and bankruptcy. When that didn't happen, due to the Model S' success, the stock jumped after which gamblers started purchasing options on future values. This caused Tesla to have a reputation for volatility which the MMs and Hedge Funds have worked on ever since. It won't be the end of it because AAPL pays dividends and still is shorted, but the swings are not as wild because it's way too easy to lose more than was invested. Shorting is a dangerous game.

Still, AAPL has paid a quarterly dividend since 2012. The company also paid a quarterly dividend from November 1988 to November 1995 before suspending it for seventeen years. Their volatility certainly has not ceased but the endemic naked shorting of TSLA is much easier than it is for AAPL, which risk even diminishes a little more because of share buybacks.

TSLA has had similar psychological issues, but AAPL predicability has stabilized and the drama of the past has largely been excised. TSLA still has open questions about operating stability and competitive risks. Both of those comments made from analyst perspectives.

In my opinion Tesla volatility will continue until market dynamics are impossible to dismiss. Remember AAPL only became 'politically respectable' around 2015 or so, when it became obvious that Tim Cook brought both boring stability and logistical prowess.

In the meantime HODL for TSLA is my only clear choice. Not a recommendation to anyone else. That has worked quite well for AAPL too, through TSLA-like drama.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I wonder if someone more knowledgeable would care to comment on what seems to be the complete stall of the V4 supercharger rollout. Or at least the higher power version. I know there have been some faux 400 volt locations installed (pseudo V3’s). With the apparent dismal cybertruck charging speeds on V3’s I would have thought the V4 rollout would be further along. Is this related to the poor performance of the 4680 batteries and maybe their tolerance for more aggressive charging?

Feel free to take me to school on this.

Thanks in advance.

 

[cliff harris]

There was a tweet regarding V4s saying the cables were being improved.

 

[geometro]

I know there are a bunch of different uses of capital possible but a modest share buyback would be a nice signal from Tesla that the shares are cheap.

 

[jerry33]

I wonder if someone more knowledgeable would care to comment on what seems to be the complete stall of the V4 supercharger rollout. Or at least the higher power version. I know there have been some faux 400 volt locations installed (pseudo V3’s). With the apparent dismal cybertruck charging speeds on V3’s I would have thought the V4 rollout would be further along. Is this related to the poor performance of the 4680 batteries and maybe their tolerance for more aggressive charging?

Feel free to take me to school on this.

Thanks in advance.

It's likely more related to the ability of the grid to provide the required current. (or the price they want to do the upgrade)

 

[Krugerrand]

Maybe OT here. What’s the quality of TSLA that makes it so options heavy and subject to all the MM dealings? Structurally Couldn’t this happen to any stock?

Is the end of it, like many suggested, when dividends or other ironclad things increase the price of shorting and manufacturing shares?

That would be that the head of company did this - - to everyone that currently controls the world.

 

[Krugerrand]

Because unless you have experience in all those things, you have no right to criticize or question Elon Musk.

I ‘ve never been president or an NFL quarterback and I have strong opinions about both. Is that OK?

Opinions are awesome, they’re just simply full of hot air and worth less. Not worthless, but worth less. For our literary experts. Just wanted you to know the space wasn’t a mistake.

 

[geometro]

This nonsense needs to stop… they don’t bother to mention anything about reducing reliance on Middle East oil, reducing greenhouse gases or any of the other benefits. They take a very (unnecessary) political angle… reminds me of ten years ago and all of the nonsense back then:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ford-f-150-lightning-production-electric-vehicles-biden-administration-1c3fc8d0

 

[Krugerrand]

To me, "Disruption" is the key word for unlocking the answer.

Sure, it could happen to any stock, but it is easier to hit Tesla as the volatility is being driven by media campaigns championed by those being disrupted by Elon's creations.

There is a long list of the dearly disrupted which, among others, includes:

• Fossil Fuel Energy players, and their supporting industries
• ICE automotive players and their supporting industries
• Advertising companies and their well-developed network of outlets
• Social Media outlets with any specific bias
• News companies with any specific bias

These are the tip of the ICEberg and the greater disruption and transformation toward a world of abundance will impact other players who have depended upon tools like control of the price of energy to dictate technical progress, wealth distribution, and classes of lifestyle.

The potential of the long-term effects of Tesla, and other Musk companies, threatens age-old regimes that have concentrated wealth and progress to be controlled by a plethora of power brokers.

Take a gander at some of the Tony Seba videos on YouTube to get more detail on where the world is headed, why it is headed that way, and then think about who will be affected negatively by such a paradigm shift.

This isn't a conspiracy. It is an affront to a wide variety of players who each are finding they have an axe to grind and will make their subtle attempts to put off their own demise and maintain their station in life.

This leads to Tesla being THE stock most affected, creating an environment where the folks on Wall Street can most easily capitalize on the action that results.

Add to this the rules governing naked shorting and Wally's work becomes easy to accomplish when given a suitable target.

Yeah, that too. I just didn’t feel like a soliloquy this morning. That’s not a jab at your thorough, thoughtful posts. Accurately, it’s me not you.