Musskiah
DisGruntled
I
Can't edit this post further. I just noticed the typo "Larry Goldberg...makes a compelling case for **2025** 35% TE Margins..."@Zaddy Daddy
Using a graph of past prices does not convey a thing about future prices. MY prices will be on the rise in both Europe and US in weeks. This is a sign we are at a local bottom and near/at stabilization. I didn't mean to imply price cuts were only because of interest rates, so I agree with you the depth of the ruthless price cuts Tesla exacted on the competition was not commensurate with interest rates - it was in fact more of a a coup de grâce!
By stating "Tesla may be approaching a 'natural limit' " (this is their words from most recent earnings) I was aknowledging that Tesla expects less cost declines - I agree with you. As @unk45 has shared, cost declines are still expected to come from batteries, and I would add other commodities. This will not be insignificant.
You forgot to add Deferred Tesla Energy Revenue to your forecast. Tesla has already stated $1.05B of this Revenue will be realized in the next 12 months (2024). In 2025, this will be well over $2B and perhaps as much as $4B by my estimation - I don't really want to get into the math here, but it's plain to see this if you examine the difference in this Deferred Energy Revenue between 2022 and 2023. This Revenue alone will contribute nearly $1EPS (or more) ON TOP of the 2 Megapacktories. Your margins are low for Energy in 2025- I would put them at between 25-30%. Otherwise, I generally agree with your numbers. I stand by my CONSERVATIVE $2 FY2025 EPS forecast from Energy (Deferred and 2 Megapacktories combined). Larry Goldburg, though we may take his forecast with a grain of salt, makes a fairly compelling case for 2035 35% Energy Margins with $10B profit (FWIW 2024 Energy forecast is 25% margins with $4B profit). For those who missed it, here is the link again: Start at 9:30
I like your FSD assessment, that is reasonable, and probably rightly conservative. Of course, it is entirely possible we could be in for a monster suprise here!
Tesla targets 50k ramp in semis by EOY 2025. I think 20k in 2025 is reasonable with 15k coming in the second half. I think your margins are low as they will preferentially sell the $250k version along with, perhaps, premium upgrades as they always do. I can live with $0.40 EPS
I am glad we agree on Cybertruck, this means we have tested our theories with rigor from different perspectives and arrived at, perhaps, the most accurate conclusion of all.
Google Finance - Stock Market Prices, Real-time Quotes & Business News
Tesla Inc (TSLA) - Services and Other Revenue is at a current level of 8.319B, up from 6.091B one year ago. This is a change of 36.58% from one year ago. The growth is Supercharger revenue, in particular, comes from Tesla's growing fleet. Even if they ONLY add another 2M cars in 2024, that's another 2M paying customers to the network.
I really like your conclusion, IF you were to add in the Deferred Energy Revenue of $1 EPS, and then modify the arithmetic accordingly. One thing is certain, you and I both agree Tesla is currently undervalued: You think 56%, I think something closer to 100%.
On a personal note: @Zaddy Daddy I genuinely have always appreciated your analysis. You have helped me realize that, perhaps, it is not that you are a contrarian as much as I am an eternal optimist. Thank you for continuing to help me temper my assumptions.