Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Tesla settled the Walter Huang AP death case.
Related context-
You can install our site as a web app on your iOS device by utilizing the Add to Home Screen feature in Safari. Please see this thread for more details on this.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
Given this and the fact Tesla saw a YoY decline in auto sales while the majority of the ICE auto industry saw YoY increases, I think one would have to conclude EVs are experiencing some demand softening. Clearly this isn’t just a Tesla thing; BYD posted poor numbers as well. However, since legacy auto has posted a string of solid quarters, it doesn’t appear to be channel stuffing.
One could conclude softening EV demand without the appropriate facts. Allow me to provide them:Even after adjusted for interest rates, the Model 3 and Y are already more affordable by thousands of dollars than they were 2 years ago. The TAM for each should have at least doubled. And yet they are still slashing inventory prices. They delivered less cars than a year ago while the cars are more affordable! Demand is obviously soft.
I agree a super long range MY is unlikely, in the US at least, which is why I said "over 500mi miles of range potential in MY." However, as battery supply ramps, they may revisit this little baby... Tesla files for a near 400-mile Model Y in ChinaTesla would likely never make a 500 mile Model Y. It uses too many resources, and decreases efficiency at the same time.
Look at the recent OOS Ocean-to-Ocean race with the EV trucks currently on the market.
Even with almost double the size battery and 43% more range the Chevy wasn't really any faster than the Cybertruck over an approximately 40 hour trip. Yes, it had to make fewer stops, but most people aren't bladder busting drivers.
- Chevy Silverado EV WT4 in first place (~430 mile range with ~220kWh battery)
- Tesla Cybertruck Cyberbeast: Just a few minutes slower (~300 range with 123kWh battery)
- Rivian R1T: About half an hour slower (~290 mile range)
- Ford F-150 Lightning: multiple hours slower (~280 mile range)
There is some indication they could be close to 50k annualized runrate, though it isn't a certainty. Tesla produces 1k Cybertrucks' worth of 4680 cells at Giga Texas last weekSure. But there are still things called production ramps. The Cybertruck still isn't even at 50,000 units a year yet (AFAIK).
My "sources" tell me there's a Tesla Trunk Monkey being developed that will cure that behavior very quickly;I also think people are dreaming if they think existing consumer owned X/S/3/Y can be put into the robotaxi fleet. How would you ever keep passengers from grabbing the wheel/yoke and mashing the go pedal?
I was sure they would fight this one to the bitter end
Tesla settled the Walter Huang AP death case.
Related context-
Yes, but whom did he run over? Was he on Autopilot?...
Neighbour from across the street had to run over yesterday while I was in the driveway and tell me to sell our car while it was still worth something. Elon cancelled all new cars and the company is going bankrupt. No. I’m not kidding.
MOD NOTE: Re "free speech." This is as good a place as any to remind all that I set this site up with extremely specific rules as to what may and what may not be written here. Think of it as a benevolent tyrrany. You are even permitted to X out that "benevolent" if you wish: that's how benevolent I am.So, do we not believe in free speech?
Whether he was pompous, completely wrong or trolling, we all have the ability to tune him out and not respond. And, put him/her on ignore!
This forum should be for anyone to give their opinion. As long as he does not shoot anyone or cause harm to others, does it really effect you, or any of us... this is what free speech is all about...and, I would hope, Elon would agree as well, considering all of the groups trying to silence him.
I was by no means making an argument in Reuters's favor. I was more commenting on how journalists and their publishers keep getting away with falsehoods about Tesla, as long as they claim there are "sources." ...."We were only reporting what our precious sources told us...and no, you don't get to know who the sources are."How do you know Reuters didn't lie?
Even if they didn't, I think there's a fine line between outright stating things that are blatantly untrue and fabricating a set of events that allow you to technically report something and/or report something that you didn't fabricate but know not to be true. In that case it's tantamount to lying IMO.
One could conclude softening EV demand without the appropriate facts. Allow me to provide them:
The cumulative U.S. inventory (see below) is similar to peak inventory throughout Q323 and Q423. MX inventory has improved, as well as M3. MY demand is soft, yes, which is exemplified by the deep MY discounts in the US only. The demand for the other three models seem to be as good or better than with recent historical trends. Blanket statements like "EV demand is soft" misses the point I have just articulated, because it is not wholly true. This is also true of Q223 (not pictured) which looks similar to 2023-07-14 below, where M3 MX and MS all remain stable. Of course, as M3 Highland ramps, we should watch this chart to ensure the refresh continues to draw demand.
The point is this: we are talking 6000MY inventory vehicles in the US being discounted $5-7k. We are talking a $32-42M maximum possible discount. This is like 1.5% of all Teslas that will be sold in Q2. These discounts are a rounding error (especially in light of Energy Revenue explosion which will eclipse thes discounts [pun intended Eclipse Day]). If these levels remain stable, within just a couple quarters, Austin and Fremont lines have to go down in quick succession to retool for Juniper, while concurrently interest rates drop - this should solve the temporary build up in MY inventory over the long run. Also, Tesla will want substantial MY inventory going into the MY refresh.
Lastly, remember Tesla has stated time and again that they WANT to maintain inventory to flatten the wave. I think we can see below inventories become less wave-like.
I open the floor for those who want to kill my hopium vibe. J/K I love the banter. Thanks everyone sincerely for the counter arguments. The healthy back-and-forth discussion is what I love about this place!
CUMULATIVE US INVENTORY 4/23-PRESENT
View attachment 1036805
Europe is hardly out of the ordinary, well within historical norms, hence no deep MY discounts. My concern would be M3 refresh isn't taking hold if M3 inventories continue to rise.
CUMULATIVE EUROPEAN INV 4/23-PRES
View attachment 1036816
CHINA LESS THAN 500 CUMULATIVE. ITS NORMAL, SO I DIDNT SHOW IT.
SOURCE: Tesla New Inventory Counts, aggregated at a Europe level
With steer-by-wire the wheel can be disabled via software and can eventually fold into the dashboard.Waymo allows passenger front seat access as well, at least in Gen5 vehicles from what I have seen.
Why do you think Tesla couldn't keep the driver's door locked? (It is electronic, so they can program it any way they want.)
When the tech is mature how much effort will it take to have removable physical controls on all existing models via a refresh? Clearly not impossible.I also think people are dreaming if they think existing consumer owned X/S/3/Y can be put into the robotaxi fleet. How would you ever keep passengers from grabbing the wheel/yoke and mashing the go pedal?
“The point is this: we are talking 6000MY inventory vehicles in the US being discounted $5-7k. We are talking a $32-42M maximum possible discount. This is like 1.5% of all Teslas that will be sold in Q2. These discounts are a rounding error”
Are you assuming that Tesla will stop giving inventory discounts after the current inventory (the 6000 number you mention) is sold? They had inventory discounts all through quarter one, as inventory was continually sold and resupplied.
Moreover, as we all know the clients always right. If they want to pull on the steering or punch the accelerator you need to let them do that.When the tech is mature how much effort will it take to have removable physical controls on all existing models via a refresh? Clearly not impossible.
.
Just like children’s ‘cars’ shopping carts in supermarkets, let those passenger move the wheels as much as they desire!Moreover, as we all know the clients always right. If they want to pull on the steering or punch the accelerator you need to let them do that.
...
Look, if you want to bury your head in the sand on how Elon has misled customers and investors, that's your prerogative. I'll stand on the side of truth.
Honestly what's the benefit to a government. From the govt POVI don't. This is transformative technology. No government wants to miss out on the benefits.
As long as Tesla robotaxi is proven to be safe and reliable there will be no stopping it. "Safe and reliable" will be the challenge. If Tesla can accomplish that, regulation will fall in line.