Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
This is great data! I didn't know this existed.Whole heartedly agree with most of your points. Just want to add one thing that people may underestimate how long the traditional OEM's pipeline is. The fed actually keeps track of a statistics that might reflect, the auto inventory/sales ratio, while it's recovered some from the sharp drop in 2021, it's still way below pre-pandemic level. OEMs are still stuffing the dealers.
Auto Inventory/Sales Ratio
Graph and download economic data for Auto Inventory/Sales Ratio (AISRSA) from Jan 1993 to Apr 2024 about ratio, inventories, vehicles, new, sales, and USA.fred.stlouisfed.org
Especially if we look at just inventory, not inventory/sales ratio, it is clear that there is substantially more production than sales lately in the US. However, I don't think "channel stuffing" is a good description, because inventory is bouncing back from almost zero, and it's still about 3-7x less than it used to be. That being said, the total amount of inventory buildup left would be at most a few weeks worth of sales.
Interestingly, I see that inventory was already plummeting in the years before 2020. I wonder why.
New vehicle sales are still about 15% less than pre-pandemic. Meanwhile, used vehicle sales post-2020 remain at an all-time high, and show massively greater seasonality for some reason.
Inventory/Sales
Inventory
Sales
Note that I zoomed in on 2005-present for this one
Used Car Sales