2023 also had low retail weeks
YoY accumulated deltas (now to past in thousands): -9, -4, -7, -4, +2, +6, +7, +7, +10
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2023 also had low retail weeks
Does this mean RT will never drive in cold weather?That's the key. In an RT there won't be any "regen unavailable" situations . . . because it won't let itself get into those.
The Semi has to be ready when it's shipped. Fleets won't tolerate a truck that doesn't do the job, so breakdowns, poor tire wear, etc. have to be fixed before wide release. It can't be an iterative release the way it can be for consumers. This means a lot of testing and refining. Also there is not really any charging infrastructure for Semi at this point, so that needs to be remedied and enough short distance fleets need to commit to purchasing a charger and installing it so the Semis made can be sold immediately. Long distance fleets will wait until there is a charging network.I really don't think there is a go-slow on semi due to cash. Tesla has a staggering amount of cash in the bank right now. The impression I get is that the semi release is slow because they are collecting as much real-world long term data as they can on the existing prototype built models.
Also its very hard, without being part of the project management team, to look at a construction project and say 'there is no urgency'. Maybe they are delayed temporarily by something completely out of their control involving permitting or infrastructure.
I do think once the production facility is complete people will be surprised how many semi's Tesla builds. Its a perfect market for them, based on numbers and economics and not consumer sentiment and FUD.
One option: subsidize rides to mass transit and subsidize pooled rides while charging a congestion fee to trips toward the center? Cities have different levers at their disposal and the smart ones will use robotaxi to reduce overall car traffic and make cities more livable. Hopefully at least some of them decide to be smart about this.
Or focus is now in the new CATL battery line?Elon managing cash flow. Nvidia chips will hurt this year.
If RTs are "fleet aware" i.e. if they can get instant information from and about every other RT, then couldn't that significantly reduce jams?It will be a period of change for folks, pooled rides is the only way RT will reduce congestion. Basically the benefits people cite have unfortunate side effects that are very negative. It will be just like the uber drivers constantly circling areas and causing traffic jams. We already know what will happen, how they plan around that I don't know. Pooled rides seems to be the most logical.
Huge month = soft EV salesTesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) doubled its sales of electric vehicles (EVs) in China in March compared to February, with exports from its Shanghai plant down slightly.
No biggie, just one of the biggest weeks of all time. Must be soft demand?
Note: Chinese New Year was in February.Tesla EV sales in China double to 62,398 in Mar
In the first quarter, Tesla sold 132,420 vehicles in China, contributing 34.23 percent of its global deliveries.cnevpost.com
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) doubled its sales of electric vehicles (EVs) in China in March compared to February, with exports from its Shanghai plant down slightly.
The US EV maker sold 89,064 China-made vehicles in March, including 26,666 exported, according to data released today by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
That means Tesla sold 62,398 vehicles in China in March, up 107.02 percent from 30,141 in February, though down 18.61 percent from 76,663 a year earlier.
View attachment 1036915
If RTs are "fleet aware" i.e. if they can get instant information from and about every other RT, then couldn't that significantly reduce jams?
Great thoughts!
I bet RT first gig will be moving personnel around Giga Texa
The energy is just to feed the AIYou forgot energy.
For this week we were looking at:Huge month = soft EV sales
No biggie, just one of the biggest weeks of all time. Must be soft demand?
1 reasonSub-optimal
They have already announced Gen3 and have been working on PRODUCTION for over a year. this time it is not the same.View attachment 1036766
here is one person's experience. This can't be dismissed as "well, this is just one person, it works great for me". To be Robotaxi ready, everything needs to be green for everyone.
The fastest Tesla has gone between announcement and production is about a year, so the vehicle itself won't be ready for at least a year, then they have to make sure the software works well on that particular vehicle (the software just doesn't work on everything eg Cybertruck). Plus they have to make it more robust. All those things add up. They'll get there, but it isn't imminent.
The St Louis Fed does some good graphics on numerous subjects. For those who want to evaluate their source data and also have much more detail go here:This is great data! I didn't know this existed.
Especially if we look at just inventory, not inventory/sales ratio, it is clear that there is substantially more production than sales lately in the US. However, I don't think "channel stuffing" is a good description, because inventory is bouncing back from almost zero, and it's still about 3-7x less than it used to be. That being said, the total amount of inventory buildup left would be at most a few weeks worth of sales.
Interestingly, I see that inventory was already plummeting in the years before 2020. I wonder why.
New vehicle sales are still about 15% less than pre-pandemic. Meanwhile, used vehicle sales post-2020 remain at an all-time high, and show massively greater seasonality for some reason.
Inventory/Sales
View attachment 1036871
Inventory
View attachment 1036873
Sales
Note that I zoomed in on 2005-present for this one
View attachment 1036874
Used Car Sales
View attachment 1036875
higher off the ground, easier to get into than a model 3 for sure. It should be like a sci fi looking more aerodynamic Honda Jazz that all the old folks haveI don't see how a Robotaxi can be a compact car. I barely fit in a Model 3, and it's difficult for the old and out of shape to get into and out of. There is no way a robotaxi for all can be based on a compact model.
We heard Tesla operated about ~100 units (incl. with their Pepsi partner). How many more could they need to properly test the semi in real-word conditions?The Semi has to be ready when it's shipped. Fleets won't tolerate a truck that doesn't do the job, so breakdowns, poor tire wear, etc. have to be fixed before wide release. It can't be an iterative release the way it can be for consumers. This means a lot of testing and refining.
Is your concern just when there's no nav for FSD to follow?Not an AI expert by any means, but this behavior is strange, hard for me to explain, and makes me question the overall method. When I use the turn signals on FSD, it seems to take that command under advisement, starts to execute the request, but frequently changes it's mind after starting the lane change and ultimately ignores my command. This makes me question how much control Tesla has over the "black box" that is the NN....
There are two competing visions of a sustainable future.
The first is built on the idea that the only way to survive as a species is to limit growth, cut consumption, and live austerely.
The second is built on the idea that technological innovation can enable both sustainability and growth.
Tesla stands for the second one.
Maybe the Robotaxi is the van not the M2. You heard it here first.