Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[juanmedina]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1425186705410170881

 

[ninpb]

Call me cynical, but I think the chances of the EV tax credit happening in Sept are close to zero.

Reading Gary Black's tweet, he's just saying it could pass in Sept. The bill as I read it (still have a headache) is it applies to a car purchase starting Jan 1, 2022.

 

[keydiver]

Reading Gary Black's tweet, he's just saying it could pass in Sept. The bill as I read it (still have a headache) is it applies to a car purchase starting Jan 1, 2022.

Has there been any solid info on how the $10,000 credit will be handled? There were rumblings a few months ago that it would be taken off right at the sale by Tesla, or be a tax refund, where the IRS would actually send you a check for the difference. Not everyone can get a $10,000 tax credit under they old system. I just convinced a friend of mine to put in an order for a Model 3 SR+ for his wife, but they are retired, on fixed income. I'd like to think they can somehow get the full credit.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Well.. my tax-advisor said, that the interest-penalty on unpaid taxes in germany is just ~5% atm (LIBOR + 2% interest + 5% penalty, LIBOR is < 0 since years) .. so basically a cheap loan ..
not advice.

If you switch to IBKR you are on portfolio-margin & you can pay out all excess liquidity to yourself. If your cash goes negative you pay interest. If you sell 1-2 puts you should never have a negative balance

But beware: having > 100k Eur in cash (and not converted to e.g. USD) will make you pay negative interest (0.5% p.a. or something along those lines).

But beware:

Source:

Fund Your Account | Interactive Brokers LLC

We offer a number of flexible and convenient methods for funding your account.

www.interactivebrokers.com

Possible workaround:

Sell securities (hopefully not TSLA)
withdraw
purchase securities

Dumb 'regulatory reasons'.

 

[Flehmenlips]

I got a prepare for delivery email 3 days after I ordered Model X this week.
When I ordered, the web page had given an April-may 22 approx date.

At the moment I am not-prepared, so I haven't taken any action - and unsure whether this is just a generic email or it for real and if completed, i would get it in next 1-2 mths.

(+ ~ 120K with the bells and whistles .. need some more CC's in the bag)

Interesting. I am currently in a chat with Tesla re: ordering a model X and they are saying Mar-Apr delivery. I am in the Pacific Northwest USA. Would be good to know if it could actually arrive a lot sooner.

 

[Thekiwi]

Bloomberg TV currently doing there best to not understand Tesla’s normal China export/local split in first month of a quarter.

Started with a “reminder” that Tesla had to recall virtually every car they had sold in China recently (Without mentioning it was a trivial recall process).

The reporter (Ed Ludlow) at least mentioned that the growing number of exports “was not a bad thing”, but went on to emphasize the slowdown in China sales was a concern. Again - no mention whatsoever of the normal quarterly pattern of exporting majority of production in first two months of quarter and switching to majority domestic supply in last month of quarter.

 

[Knightshade]

Has there been any solid info on how the $10,000 credit will be handled? There were rumblings a few months ago that it would be taken off right at the sale by Tesla, or be a tax refund, where the IRS would actually send you a check for the difference. Not everyone can get a $10,000 tax credit under they old system. I just convinced a friend of mine to put in an order for a Model 3 SR+ for his wife, but they are retired, on fixed income. I'd like to think they can somehow get the full credit.

Until it passes everyone is just guessing.

There's been a number of different proposals varying the amount between 7500, 10k, and 12.5k (sometimes with and without caveats for some amounts)- some working like the old credit, some offering some degree of point-of-sale rebate.

What makes it into the final language? Nobody knows till it happens.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The Tesla SPAC is backfiring!

 

[MartinAustin]

Good on Ford. I continue to be impressed with the speed that Ford shows in changing. Maybe too late..maybe. But they are trying to turn the boat. The GM and Dodge ships seem to be adrift in ice and captains drunk on the floor.

(Sorry not TSLA-related) Uh... IMO that is not heavylifting, that is still marketing fluff.

THIS would be heavy lifting by Ford:

"In 2019 we sold 900,000 F-150's. We are going to cap our U.S. combustion-engined F-150 production in the following way:

2022 800,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2023 700,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2024 600,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2025 500,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2026 400,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2027 300,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2028 200,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2029 100,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2030 no more final assembly/sales of F-150 combustion-engined vehicles - only limited production for future parts needs going forward
2031 onwards we will be selling 100% battery-electric F-150 units."

THAT would be an admirable statement that even a skeptic like myself would cheer on. Legacy auto manufacturers need to announce the draw-down of their combustion-engine production to really set historic goals.

(EDIT: I should add... those figures might be Ford's actual sales figures, as Cybertruck eats into ICE sales. However, for Ford to pre-announce a draw-down in ICE production would be commendable.)

 

[thx1139]

(Sorry not TSLA-related) Uh... IMO that is not heavylifting, that is still marketing fluff.

THIS would be heavy lifting by Ford:

"In 2019 we sold 900,000 F-150's. We are going to cap our U.S. combustion-engined F-150 production in the following way:

2022 800,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2023 700,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2024 600,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2025 500,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2026 400,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2027 300,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2028 200,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2029 100,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2030 no more final assembly/sales of F-150 combustion-engined vehicles - only limited production for future parts needs going forward
2031 onwards we will be selling 100% battery-electric F-150 units."

THAT would be an admirable statement that even a skeptic like myself would cheer on. Legacy auto manufacturers need to announce the draw-down of their combustion-engine production to really set historic goals.

(EDIT: I should add... those figures might be Ford's actual sales figures, as Cybertruck eats into ICE sales. However, for Ford to pre-announce a draw-down in ICE production would be commendable.)

I would expect as F150L, CyberTruck and Rivians come into the market the ICE versions will drop faster. Only people that must have a new truck and cant get ahold of a F150L will buy a F150 ICE and that is only if they are hung up on getting a Ford.

 

[Singuy]

(Sorry not TSLA-related) Uh... IMO that is not heavylifting, that is still marketing fluff.

THIS would be heavy lifting by Ford:

"In 2019 we sold 900,000 F-150's. We are going to cap our U.S. combustion-engined F-150 production in the following way:

2022 800,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2023 700,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2024 600,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2025 500,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2026 400,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2027 300,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2028 200,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2029 100,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2030 no more final assembly/sales of F-150 combustion-engined vehicles - only limited production for future parts needs going forward
2031 onwards we will be selling 100% battery-electric F-150 units."

THAT would be an admirable statement that even a skeptic like myself would cheer on. Legacy auto manufacturers need to announce the draw-down of their combustion-engine production to really set historic goals.

(EDIT: I should add... those figures might be Ford's actual sales figures, as Cybertruck eats into ICE sales. However, for Ford to pre-announce a draw-down in ICE production would be commendable.)

LoL if they want to see their share price tank by purposely sack their revenue for EV transitions.

No the correct(and only play) is

1. Announce as many EV projects as possible with lofty ranges and cheap prices to Osbourne competitors
2. Announce some kind of battery tech by calling it a futuristic name but it's just LG CHEM underneath.
3. Continues to print money from their ICE line up.

 

[Accident]

Look at your mytesla account. There should be an estimate delivery date there; it probably says: April or something like that.

I ordered a Model S last week and the delivery date was blank before and it now says September 11-30th .Gary Black thinks that the $10,000 EV incentive might happen somewhere in September but who knows. My car will be funded all by CC's.

The latest version of the EV tax credit bill applies only to EVs that cost less than $80k. It will exclude the Model S at its current price.

 

[Unpilot]

I love how there is an attempt to push down the SP every day around 7.50ish.

Gotta set the trend

 

[Thekiwi]

The latest version of the EV tax credit bill applies only to EVs that cost less than $80k. It will exclude the Model S at its current price.

Would possibly be good if the cap was actually much lower, say $50k. Would be seen as less of a “rich people subsidy” and would benefit automakers who can make EVs retailing for <$50k profitably *cough*Tesla*cough*

 

[ReddyLeaf]

THEY don't need it lower, if it closed the week below $700 and they start paying out a lot of puts

If I had to pin the tail on the donkey for the week, I'd go for $706

That being said, last week we closed below the $700 put wall, although I have observed that the MM's are less bothered about being forced to buy shares close to the money on a Friday

View attachment 694914

Short sellers you say?
I’m a short seller

 

[MartinAustin]

I would expect as F150L, CyberTruck and Rivians come into the market the ICE versions will drop faster. Only people that must have a new truck and cant get ahold of a F150L will buy a F150 ICE and that is only if they are hung up on getting a Ford.

Fair point. I imagine there will be a glut of one-, two- and three-year-old F-150s going on the market as the overall fleet transitions to electric (from any manufacturer, not just Tesla) so there could well be lots of used bargains lying around for people who absolutely have to have ICE. Ford dealerships trying to sell additional brand-new ICE into that morass will find a difficult task ahead.

 

[WattsHappening]

Would possibly be good if the cap was actually much lower, say $50k. Would be seen as less of a “rich people subsidy” and would benefit automakers who can make EVs retailing for <$50k profitably *cough*Tesla*cough*

From a selfish point of view from one who has an order in for a Model Y, I think this is a terrible idea.

From a short-term TSLA investor's viewpoint, this would also suck. While it's clear Tesla is selling every vehicle they make and demand continues to outweigh supply, a long-term subsidy would allow Tesla to raise prices and earn more revenue and margin.

From the viewpoint of the common good as well as a long-term TSLA investor, your idea has merit.

 

[dhrivnak]

And you're not in EU.. if I want to import a car from Norway to Finland I'll have to pay 24% vat on top of car price

Has there been any solid info on how the $10,000 credit will be handled? There were rumblings a few months ago that it would be taken off right at the sale by Tesla, or be a tax refund, where the IRS would actually send you a check for the difference. Not everyone can get a $10,000 tax credit under they old system. I just convinced a friend of mine to put in an order for a Model 3 SR+ for his wife, but they are retired, on fixed income. I'd like to think they can somehow get the full credit.

I did this for my RAV4 Prime. Basically cashed part of my IRA and moved to a ROTH IRA. Still invested but saved the taxes.

 

[nativewolf]

(Sorry not TSLA-related) Uh... IMO that is not heavylifting, that is still marketing fluff.

THIS would be heavy lifting by Ford:

"In 2019 we sold 900,000 F-150's. We are going to cap our U.S. combustion-engined F-150 production in the following way:

2022 800,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2023 700,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2024 600,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2025 500,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2026 400,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2027 300,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2028 200,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2029 100,000 F-150 combustion-engined vehicles
2030 no more final assembly/sales of F-150 combustion-engined vehicles - only limited production for future parts needs going forward
2031 onwards we will be selling 100% battery-electric F-150 units."

THAT would be an admirable statement that even a skeptic like myself would cheer on. Legacy auto manufacturers need to announce the draw-down of their combustion-engine production to really set historic goals.

(EDIT: I should add... those figures might be Ford's actual sales figures, as Cybertruck eats into ICE sales. However, for Ford to pre-announce a draw-down in ICE production would be commendable.)

Well as things go I am not sure we can replace all that capacity at that rate. Frankly I don't see the battery capacity. Secondly, I don't see the required tow capacity. If you put a 26k payload behind either light truck it becomes somewhat useless. Not unusual for these f350 and even a 250 to pull huge payloads over 100 miles a day. These are work trucks, guys working 12 hour days is not unusual. We were loading sawdust into a truck on Sunday at 10am and then he put 10k lbs of fencing on top, plus trailer (18' dump) I am sure he was pushing close to 20k lb plus his bed was full of tools and fuel, maybe another 1000lbs. He had driven there sunday morning and still had life to live, hour drive back to farm, then on to church after dropping trailer. Point being that I am not sure you'll see 0 ICE trucks by 2030. Also making sure you know that the f150 number includes the 250/350. Maybe 60-70% are actually the f150 getting replaced by the lightening. In any case I think it is moot, both tesla and ford will sell every truck made. Neither can get enough battery capacity and Tesla is way ahead of Ford. Ford was a late mover. VW moved earlier as did GM, GM just didn't do anything useful with that huge headstart. The freaking Volt/bolt. I mean great 10 years ago but just a lost project and they wasted that huge govt subsidy.

 

[Cattledog]

Well as things go I am not sure we can replace all that capacity at that rate. Frankly I don't see the battery capacity. Secondly, I don't see the required tow capacity. If you put a 26k payload behind either light truck it becomes somewhat useless. Not unusual for these f350 and even a 250 to pull huge payloads over 100 miles a day. These are work trucks, guys working 12 hour days is not unusual. We were loading sawdust into a truck on Sunday at 10am and then he put 10k lbs of fencing on top, plus trailer (18' dump) I am sure he was pushing close to 20k lb plus his bed was full of tools and fuel, maybe another 1000lbs. He had driven there sunday morning and still had life to live, hour drive back to farm, then on to church after dropping trailer. Point being that I am not sure you'll see 0 ICE trucks by 2030. Also making sure you know that the f150 number includes the 250/350. Maybe 60-70% are actually the f150 getting replaced by the lightening. In any case I think it is moot, both tesla and ford will sell every truck made. Neither can get enough battery capacity and Tesla is way ahead of Ford. Ford was a late mover. VW moved earlier as did GM, GM just didn't do anything useful with that huge headstart. The freaking Volt/bolt. I mean great 10 years ago but just a lost project and they wasted that huge govt subsidy.

I wish we had real data for how many working people use truck as you describe and how may are posers. I suspect it's close to 10/90, but I don't really know.