Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

I think you are looking at this all wrong.

Robotaxi, Optimus, heck Energy.

These things aren’t priced into the stock. They are way too conceptual for Wall Street to care about. Tesla is valued based on their auto business and nothing else. Between their cost structure, high operation leverage, and push to reduce battery costs, just executing on that, Tesla “Auto Only” is a decent stock. Maybe not “Best Stock Ever” but it will have good returns.

Robotaxi, Optimus, and Energy. These are options. Bonus value if you will.

If they hit the mark on any of those, then Tesla‘s value more than doubles. That is what is awesome about this company. We have a fantastic stock… with the potential for lopsided upside. Most of the risk is drained out. “Worst Case” is merely decent returns.

Besides optimus, a cancellation of Robotaxi and Energy will see the stock dump 20%+. They may not be priced in for the upside, but they will definitely price in downside as if they are huge deals if they disappear tomorrow.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Tesla preparing for robotaxis? Could be nothing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494439825432199186

 

[Christine69420]

Hmmm...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494439825432199186

The Kilowatts ️@klwttsJust got a ride in a @Uber owned by Tesla.
Yes you read that right, my Uber driver told me that the Model 3 he is driving isn’t his or owned by @Hertz, but rather a pilot program being run by @Tesla with a small number of highly ranked Uber drivers in California! @elonmusk

*Obviously, take this with a grain of salt. One of us could’ve been mistaken… But, I was asking pretty direct questions about who owned the car and who was paying the bill for it. Apparently, he only pays for supercharging and Tesla is providing the car free of charge (for now)

 

[RobDickinson]

Tesla is going to have a lot of off lease cars soon they'll need something to do with them whilst they figure out how not to get shafted by the NTSHA

 

[MartinAustin]

I’m just struggling to see how GM is going to be able to launch their Equinox EV which is supposed to be under $30k. I just looked at the LYRIQ (what a stupid name) and it has a 100 kWh pack with just 300 miles of range. That’s in the ballpark of $13,000 for the pack which doesn’t even go as far as the Model Y…. How do they launch a $30,000 car that is remotely profitable and has a useful range with that sort of efficiency?

I suspect it’ll be like the Silverado. They’ll trot out one which is $30,000 but only 1% will roll off the line at that price. You’ll have to pay $10,000 to upgrade to their “Electronics convenience package” to get keyless entry. 95% will cost $40k - 50k.

They're counting (and counting on) $12,500 of incentives from the U.S. government on all their vehicles. It's a $42,500 car. If Biden doesn't deliver on that subsidy, they'll cry foul and sell it for higher. Average transaction price is running around $45,000 anyway.

Same thing happened with the Bolt, which they regularly said would be "under $30,000" before it ended up on sale for over $40K in most cases with options.

 

[kbM3]

Tesla is going to have a lot of off lease cars soon they'll need something to do with them whilst they figure out how not to get shafted by the NTSHA

They can make a ton of money just selling them In this market.

 

[RobDickinson]

They could but their stated aim is a fleet of robotaxis, which they cant do right now.

 

[PeterJA]

I'm not saying Tesla won't deliver FSD L4/5. I'm saying it wont work on Daniels car. If you don't understand why that it is you need to understand what his car is, how far Tesla has to go to get FSD working at L2 on the improved cars today. Then understand that no redundancy exists, it will requires full new hardware and new cameras (most likely). Then understand that we are a year away from L2 at least..at least. Then several more years on L4/5 with the already discussed (by EM) hardware 3 or 4 then you'll understand why his car will never have working FSD. By the time this is all done There will be millions of Teslas in the wild, tens of millions more likely. There will be only a few thousand legacy cars with FSD licenses.

I don't see increases in asset value until L4/5. I'm from Missouri...show me then 1, 2, 3 may all come true. I'm rooting for it. I'd love to have a CT with full FSD so I can look at the forests on the way to work. Tick tick indeed. Benn ticking a while. If you had put say $5k into Tesla stock in 2018 hmm about $75k today. I'd rather have the $75k in Tesla stock, thanks very much. In fact if you put $10k in Tesla today I bet it will be worth $50k or more by the time FSD l4/5 is actually there. Actually if they get it then heck the stock would be worth $100k. Thanks, stock again.

I think Tesla has a neat approach now, there is momentum after years of sideways. It's far from actually being more than a beta L2. I don't know if you realize that the computers today are no longer offering redundancy because FSD is requiring the complete use of both computers. It's much discussed and not disputed that they need to upgrade and EM himself has discussed. A hardware upgrade will mean you'll start over. Not from scratch but all over again. This is how development is done and it is nothing to get worked up about. FSD advocates (me included) are in for a longer slog than we'd like. I like the approach but I am being realistic. Make investments on realistic expectations. Tesla is going to do wonders as a stock over the next decade. That's without FSD. That's realistic. If they get FSD before 2030 than super. You'll be wealthy. Don't margin your account counting on FSD L4/5 next year.

Thank you for your concern for us TSLA investors, which you said you are not, even though you say the stock "will do wonders over the next decade."

Grateful as I am for your concern, I see no reason to believe you have the slightest idea what you are talking about, since you previously posted opinions (about robots) BEFORE you did a brief Google search to support those opinions because, in your words, "you made me go look." In the current case, you seem unaware that neural nets too big to allow redundancy on Hardware 3 can be optimized to smaller size after development (according to James Douma, I think). And of course, Tesla's driving computers are designed to be easily upgradable if necessary, and Tesla has pledged to upgrade them if necessary.

But even if you have some slight idea what you're talking about, based on Google searches and discussions by anonymous outsiders on the Internet, I'm confident that Elon knows more about the subject than you do, even though he has made mistakes, which he tends to learn from. After following Elon for 9 years, I'll take his word over yours, sorry.

 

[Ogre]

I'm not saying Tesla won't deliver FSD L4/5. I'm saying it wont work on Daniels car. …

Cars car be upgraded. Tesla is legally obliged to make these cars work with “FSD”. If that means they have to upgrade the camera systems and computer, they will do it. They have already committed to upgrading cameras on some older cars. It seems like H3 with the current cameras will work, but if they won’t Tesla will upgrade the car.

It WILL absolutely work with his car. And assuming they purchased FSD, there won’t be any additional charges.

Teslas with AP 2.0 to need camera upgrades for FSD

Tesla entered into the car industry with their first EV, the original Tesla Roadster. It was more of a proof of concept as Tesla had bigger plans. Tesla's plan

www.notateslaapp.com

PS: If you think this is untrue PLEASE LET ME KNOW WHY rather than just a cowardly downvote a DM is fine if you’d rather not discuss it in public. I’d vastly prefer to be corrected than pass on mis-information.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Rob Maurer lays down the smak:

SEC & NHTSA Need To Hear This | Tesla Daily on Youtube (19 min ago)

Cheers!

 

[kbeckley]

I like reading about folks here who think that Tesla's brand is immune to how the wider population perceives Elon. I suspect that it is true that the majority of people don't engage in the noise of social media. But I worry.

I personally find I have to more and more couch my (endless) Tesla promotion as 'Yes Elon is unhinged at times but the cars are great.' I hate that. If you listen to any long form interview with him his humanity comes through in spades but on twitter...oh boy. As a shareholder and Canadian I would prefer he not comment on our politics (even if I agreed with it). I would be shocked if he had the bandwidth to understand the nuance of what was happening up here so he could tweet an informed thought. Today's tweet was absurd.

My current thesis (which affects my investment thesis) is, he does pay significant attention to the FUD and people trying to bring him down. And he reacts. I worry those reactions are not helping his his causes. Reading just a little of Twiiter comments will derange anyone. As we have all said you get the whole package of Elon but the Elon of 2015 is not the Elon of 2022 and I think the negativity is getting to him. We shall see. I actually think this is not off topic.

 

[juanmedina]

how much FUD can we get? this is just unreal.

 

[Ogre]

I like reading about folks here who think that Tesla's brand is immune to how the wider population perceives Elon. I suspect that it is true that the majority of people don't engage in the noise of social media. But I worry.

I personally find I have to more and more couch my (endless) Tesla promotion as 'Yes Elon is unhinged at times but the cars are great.' I hate that. If you listen to any long form interview with him his humanity comes through in spades but on twitter...oh boy. As a shareholder and Canadian I would prefer he not comment on our politics (even if I agreed with it). I would be shocked if he had the bandwidth to understand the nuance of what was happening up here so he could tweet an informed thought. Today's tweet was absurd.

My current thesis (which affects my investment thesis) is, he does pay significant attention to the FUD and people trying to bring him down. And he reacts. I worry those reactions are not helping his his causes. Reading just a little of Twiiter comments will derange anyone. As we have all said you get the whole package of Elon but the Elon of 2015 is not the Elon of 2022 and I think the negativity is getting to him. We shall see. I actually think this is not off topic.

Musk does not think like you do. He does not act like you do. He does not think or act like a lot of people do.

What Is Asperger's Syndrome? Elon Musk Reveals He Has Form of Autism Spectrum Disorder

That difference is part of what makes him able to do the things he does.

Get over it. Don’t apologize. You can explain it. It’s an opportunity to explain to people that Autism and Asperger’s are not mental illness. Starting with you.

 

[MC3OZ]

I like reading about folks here who think that Tesla's brand is immune to how the wider population perceives Elon. I suspect that it is true that the majority of people don't engage in the noise of social media. But I worry.

I personally find I have to more and more couch my (endless) Tesla promotion as 'Yes Elon is unhinged at times but the cars are great.' I hate that. If you listen to any long form interview with him his humanity comes through in spades but on twitter...oh boy. As a shareholder and Canadian I would prefer he not comment on our politics (even if I agreed with it). I would be shocked if he had the bandwidth to understand the nuance of what was happening up here so he could tweet an informed thought. Today's tweet was absurd.

My current thesis (which affects my investment thesis) is, he does pay significant attention to the FUD and people trying to bring him down. And he reacts. I worry those reactions are not helping his his causes. Reading just a little of Twiiter comments will derange anyone. As we have all said you get the whole package of Elon but the Elon of 2015 is not the Elon of 2022 and I think the negativity is getting to him. We shall see. I actually think this is not off topic.

I would prefer that Elon doesn't post at least 30% of the stuff he does on Twitter, but he does, and I don't see what we can do about it.

So far demand exceeds supply for cars in general, and demand exceeds supply more significantly for EVs, for Tesla EVs demand exceeds supply by a gap that 50% annual compound growth will struggle to fill anytime soon,

And the most likely volume competitors to Tesla are VW and the Chinese, When the choice is Tesla or Chinese, many customers will buy Tesla.

I do hope Elon mellows and more generally the whole social debate on Covid wanes. We need to get to a level where the unvaccinated or under vaccinated, will not overload the health system. After that it is down to personal choice, and living with the consequences of decisions.

While we can expect Elon to be right on most issues, we can't expect that for every issue, and when an issue divides society Elon might occasionally fall into a different camp than we do. But still the personality of the guy running the company, is a strange basis for making a car purchase decision, I expect most customers are more pragmatic, and want the car that best matches their requirements.

 

[Singuy]

I would prefer that Elon doesn't post at least 30% of the stuff he does on Twitter, but he does, and I don't see what we can do about it.

So far demand exceeds supply for cars in general, and demand exceeds supply more significantly for EVs, for Tesla EVs demand exceeds supply by a gap that 50% annual compound growth will struggle to fill anytime soon,

And the most likely volume competitors to Tesla are VW and the Chinese, When the choice is Tesla or Chinese, many customers will buy Tesla.

I do hope Elon mellows and more generally the whole social debate on Covid wanes. We need to get to a level where the unvaccinated or under vaccinated, will not overload the health system. After that it is down to personal choice, and living with the consequences of decisions.

While we can expect Elon to be right on most issues, we can't expect that for every issue, and when an issue divides society Elon might occasionally fall into a different camp than we do. But still the personality of the guy running the company, is a strange basis for making a car purchase decision, I expect most customers are more pragmatic, and want the car that best matches their requirements.

CEOs are not political as it alienate potential customers, young celebrities tend to keep their dating life secret as it alienates fanatic admirers. These are the golden rule of business. Elon gives about zero F. Maybe he figured that polarization generates passion, while staying neutral generates apathy.

 

[Tyler34]

You guys, the newest South Park episode mentions Tesla over 200 times! Remind me again why they need to pay for advertising again? Available on HBO max if interested.

 

[Singuy]

Even though Linus is no Tesla fan(due to a lack of right to repair), even he understands why a Tesla has no competition.

 

[thesmokingman]

CEOs are not political as it alienate potential customers, young celebrities tend to keep their dating life secret as it alienates fanatic admirers. These are the golden rule of business. Elon gives about zero F. Maybe he figured that polarization generates passion, while staying neutral generates apathy.

Elon has always given zero F's about what people think. It's just like he said with Charlie Munger who said Tesla will fail in 2009. If he listened to the naysayers we wouldn't be here. Musk can do whatever he wants at this point. What other human has led companies to space, got contracted to go back to the Moon, sold the most EV cars in mankind's history? Ironically, you see this in their cars. They build the cars they want, not what consumers think they want. I think it's brilliant yet funny as hell.

 

[Krugerrand]

You guys, the newest South Park episode mentions Tesla over 200 times! Remind me again why they need to pay for advertising again? Available on HBO max if interested.

Just saw the new Moon Fall movie; Tesla, SpaceX and Elon referenced in it.

 

[Knightshade]

I think you are looking at this all wrong.

Robotaxi, Optimus, heck Energy.

These things aren’t priced into the stock. They are way too conceptual for Wall Street to care about. Tesla is valued based on their auto business and nothing else.

This explains the post-ER dip a lot better than SI being up 0.5% of daily volume on average.

Street folks listening to the call wanting to hear about new products, and how Tesla is gonna get to 3 million+ cars a year....and Elon only talking robots and FSD- which they either don't believe or don't understand (or both)