Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

That’s not how I see it……the valuation of Tesla isn’t a surprise to those of us that have been in the stock for so long. We all did the numbers and believed in the growth runway for the company.

That doesn’t change the fact that Teslas valuation today is joke because wall st simply chooses to think al of Tesla’s growth and especially earnings growth, will suddenly stagnate starting next year.

The investment rating for Tesla alone should have every Tesla investor grumpy on a daily basis

Perfectly fine to get annoyed from 1Q to now. But we're minutes away from crazy EPS. Might as well just relax at this point.

I mean hell, you can just buy a few Nov or 2024 calls right now with little chance of being fully wrong. Enjoy!

 

[CorneliusXX]

Imagine these robots being organized as members of the A.U.R.A. Local 420 (American Union of Robot Autoworkers) to satisfy those who are still yammering for Union autoworkers!

Imagine AI robots tasking their Union to fight for:

• Longer Hours
• Higher Efficiency
• Charging Rights
• Upgrades

B_A_F

It's a shame the union leaders spent all the dues on sexbots. Corrupt to the core processor.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Did not see this earlier - after 8 years Tesla will charge customers for Standard Connectivity:

Connectivity

All Tesla vehicles come with access to Standard Connectivity. Standard Connectivity is included in your vehicle, at no additional cost, for eight years beginning on the first day your vehicle was delivered as new by Tesla, or the first day it is put into service (for example used as a demonstrator or service vehicle), whichever comes first. If you are purchasing a used vehicle, you will be notified of how long your vehicle will include access to Standard Connectivity. With Standard Connectivity, you have access to most connectivity features over Wi-Fi, in addition to basic maps and navigation and music streaming over Bluetooth®.


Premium Connectivity provides the ability to access all connectivity features over cellular, in addition to Wi-Fi, for the most intuitive and engaging ownership experience. Premium Connectivity currently is available as a monthly subscription of $9.99 plus applicable tax or as an annual subscription of $99 plus applicable tax and can be purchased at any time from your vehicle touchscreen or the Tesla app. Orders of Model S, Model X, Model Y and Model 3 will receive a Premium Connectivity trial at delivery.


If you own a Tesla vehicle for personal use, you can subscribe to Premium Connectivity from your vehicle touchscreen or the Tesla app. If you are driving a company vehicle, contact your vehicle provider for more information.

We briefly talked about it on Thursday when @MP3Mike informed us here: #352,745 and I bought up the fact it applies to used cars sold from Tesla with the earliest standard connectivity plan ending August 2024 here: #352,757

 

[samppa]

Yeah I saw those statements by GM. Talk about living in fantasy land.

Exactly what kind of ASP are they expecting when they think they’ll outsell Tesla by 2025…..yet won’t hit Tesla’s 2022 revenue until 2030

I think I figured out their plan. They're gonna double down on the Wuling Hongguang Mini EV and produce sell like millions of them. Maybe even lower the price a bit to make those sales. From the current $5k/unit. There's a reason it's called SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile.

Then they can claim they sell as many evs as tesla.. yeah better not even think about revenues.

 

[Drezil]

I think I figured out their plan. They're gonna double down on the Wuling Hongguang Mini EV and produce sell like millions of them. Maybe even lower the price a bit to make those sales. From the current $5k/unit. There's a reason it's called SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile.

Then they can claim they sell as many evs as tesla.. yeah better not even think about revenues.

Hey! They make 50 bucks a piece with that!
They just have to sell.. *checks notes* some more to break even with Teslas earnings.

 

[Singuy]

Boom, found the news you were looking for. Posted at 11:38am right before Tesla's pushdown today.

" affect a small number of vehicles"

Tesla Issues Recall as Passenger Airbag May Deploy Incorrectly By Investing.com

Tesla Issues Recall as Passenger Airbag May Deploy Incorrectly

www.investing.com

 

[henchman24]

Looks like the market might have gotten a whisper of earnings...

 

[MP3Mike]

Boom, found the news you were looking for. Posted at 11:38am right before Tesla's pushdown today.

Tesla Issues Recall as Passenger Airbag May Deploy Incorrectly By Investing.com

Tesla Issues Recall as Passenger Airbag May Deploy Incorrectly

www.investing.com

Yep, impacts a total of 5 vehicles. i.e. a nothing burger. (Though Tesla really should get a better handle on their agile development process and not release "test" vehicles to the public until they have completed their validation process, as I think this is the second recall from a "leaked" production test vehicle.)

 

[Singuy]

Thank you Google for saving the day. And Microsoft you didn't screw up too big...

 

[Mengy]

Mass produced mobile Bots with vision and mobility are more or less a virgin market.
Like most things to do with Tesla only a small percentage of the population will understand. Dojo will be eventually used to train the bots and they will be able to be trained to do useful work. For example, I think when training bots for friut-picking, grading and packing, the vision component is relatively trivial compared to FSD.

I had a family picnic this weekend and I got tons of questions about my Model Y. Then the topic turned to the Tesla Bot and my one cousin proclaimed how silly such a concept was. He admittedly didn't know many actual details about Optimus, just what he'd seen in mass media hit pieces.

So I explained how the Tesla Bot will be a generalized humanoid multi purpose robot, how Tesla will mass manufacture them, how it will use a form of FSD from the cars to navigate the world trained on the Dojo supercomputer for AI. Then I described the potential market for such a product, and how the world economy is based on labor, and what happens when you can manufacture cheap robotic labor endlessly?

By the end of our discussion half of my family listening in were ready to start buying TSLA stock, they truly had no idea what Optimus is aiming to be whatsoever. It always surprises me how little the general public knows about Tesla as a company. It shouldn't I guess, but it still does...

 

[henchman24]

Yup.. both Alphabet and Microsoft with slight misses. Alphabet getting a relief rally after snap concerns. Both of their guidances will be important, but this takes the first part of the earnings collapse narrative out. Visa killed earnings, but that shouldn't be surprising. ~4 more big names to go this week (Meta, Amazon, Apple, MC), but if all are this level it'll be more on the Fed and GDP than earnings.

 

[henchman24]

Thank you Google for saving the day. And Microsoft you didn't screw up too big...

They missed by more than Microsoft, but the worries from Snap caused expectations to be lower for Google.

 

[WolfHero]

Aftermarket OT, but I think it's revelent to some of our members here, such as @Krugerrand.

A Polish scientific institute has classified domestic cats as an "invasive alien species," citing the damage they cause to birds and other wildlife.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/house-cats-invasive-species-polish-institute-1.6532330

 

[hobbes]

Exclusive info on exports from Shanghai to Europe with detailed numbers of 3 and Y for some ships:

Exklusiv: Tesla plant für 3. Quartal acht Schiffe mit Model 3 und Model Y aus China für Europa

Nach dem Corona-Einbruch in Q2 nehmen die Tesla-Exporte nach Europa nur langsam wieder zu. Für dieses Quartal sind acht Schiffe geplant.

teslamag-de.translate.goog

@Troy

 

[bkp_duke]

Aftermarket OT, but I think it's revelent to some of our members here, such as @Krugerrand.

A Polish scientific institute has classified domestic cats as an "invasive alien species," citing the damage they cause to birds and other wildlife.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/house-cats-invasive-species-polish-institute-1.6532330

You must walk around in kevlar body armor to call out the cat like that . . .

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I should have just been a CMG investor, much less drama and I could have just held it for a decade and become a billionaire

GOOG and MSFT looking oversold and priced in, let's see how the rest of the week goes.

 

[growler23]

I had a family picnic this weekend and I got tons of questions about my Model Y. Then the topic turned to the Tesla Bot and my one cousin proclaimed how silly such a concept was. He admittedly didn't know many actual details about Optimus, just what he'd seen in mass media hit pieces.

So I explained how the Tesla Bot will be a generalized humanoid multi purpose robot, how Tesla will mass manufacture them, how it will use a form of FSD from the cars to navigate the world trained on the Dojo supercomputer for AI. Then I described the potential market for such a product, and how the world economy is based on labor, and what happens when you can manufacture cheap robotic labor endlessly?

By the end of our discussion half of my family listening in were ready to start buying TSLA stock, they truly had no idea what Optimus is aiming to be whatsoever. It always surprises me how little the general public knows about Tesla as a company. It shouldn't I guess, but it still does...

Thank you for taking the time to do this with (for?) your family. The person to person interactions can get actual information out through the FUD.
In a similar vein, my ongoing weekly (brief) conversations with my chiropractor may have yielded a new Tesla customer. I peg him for a Model S guy, possibly Plaid. My report today of the successful 2000 mile road trip this summer may have sealed the deal.

We have now reached the halfway point of the "boring" year of mass production of existing models, seen by many as necessary to create more mass to the EV movement, while continuing to cut production costs and build profit. While quietly and quickly expanding the Supercharger network. While entirely in the shadows doing _something_ (good, we think) with the Lathrop factory and the energy market. While successfully rolling out the new battery form factor, in small numbers and early version, preparing to absolutely blast it out in mass numbers in due time. While making incremental but rapid improvements in FSD: obligatory ritual "may it someday be done".
Over half a million cars produced this half-year, folks. And production rates at all factories have been increased since the start of the year (obligatory ritual: "may they not be shut down again"). Even paddling in place against global event currents like these is difficult, and Tesla have managed forward progress all the way out to the break zone. The next wave has been spotted, the board has been turned, and Tesla is balanced and ready to spring.

Bring on Q3.

 

[hobbes]

Looks like Wuwa got info on new Giga Shanghai expansion site 3 kilometers from current and found preparation work going on:

Nächste Tesla-Fabrik: Drohnen-Filmer findet Standort für noch höhere Produktion in China

Nach Berichten will Tesla in China eine weitere Gigafactory bauen. Ein YouTuber glaubt, den genauen Standort gefunden zu haben.

teslamag-de.translate.goog

 

[Gigapress]

Tesla’s debt-to-equity ratio is down to 0.18 now.

The D/E ratio is only 0.13 if excluding short-term liabilities and looking only at the long term.

It’s amazing that such a little financial leverage is involved in growing a company this quickly, especially in the car industry which historically was always capital-intensive and low-margin until Tesla came around. The return on invested capital for Tesla’s research and development as well as factory construction is so high now and their free cash flow so strong that Tesla likely will never need to take out debt again.

That being said, I have models projecting a need for capital infusion if at some point in the next few years Tesla does any of the following:

• Solve autonomous driving and pivot to ending consumer vehicle sales and allocating 100% of cars produced to their robotaxi fleets
• Allocating most or all of Tesla Energy production into vertically integrated virtual power plant expansion
• Massively scaling Tesla Solar and resuming leasing (which they haven’t done in 5 years) and doing the financing in-house instead of using a third party

However, I think if Tesla needs cash for future investments they will go with an equity offering instead of debt because of their high market cap. Thus the D/E ratio is likely to stay low from now on and Tesla will remain at low risk of any liquidity disasters arising from temporary loss of cashflow due to freak events such as an economic depression. Tesla has reached a point of maturity such that now there is nearly zero risk of Tesla being unable to pay for their current liabilities. All else equal, this reduction of financial risk should be a positive factor for TSLA stock to trade at a higher price. If nothing else, it at least means that long-term investors would be more confident that Tesla will eventually weather the storms that come between now and the far future without being in danger of bankruptcy, and thus that TSLA will eventually reflect this value creation if for no other reason than a gargantuan, growing cash balance and/or fat dividend payments.

This is not financial or investment advice, but it’s how I’m thinking about my own investment strategy.

Tesla (TSLA) Debt-to-Equity

Tesla (TSLA) Debt-to-Equity as of today (April 26, 2024) is 0.15. Debt-to-Equity explanation, calculation, historical data and more

www.gurufocus.com

 

[keydiver]

Did not see this earlier - after 8 years Tesla will charge customers for Standard Connectivity:

Connectivity

Yes, I saw that on Now You Know a few days ago. The part that worries me slightly is:
"All vehicles ordered on or before June 30, 2018 receive Premium Connectivity automatically for the lifetime of the vehicle (excluding retrofits or upgrades required for any features or services externally supplied to the vehicle – e.g. telecommunications network)."
Just last week I ordered the MCU2 upgrade for the 2016.5 Model S 90D that I have acquired, and I am hoping that there aren't any caveats in there that will prevent me from watching Youtube, etc or playing the better games available with MCU2. It worked great on the 70D that I upgraded, and I decided I can't live without it in my 90D.