DarkandStormy
Active Member
Thanks for posting this. I stopped following Gary about a year ago and seeing him admit how wrong he was about Tesla, I’m glad I did.
Yes, he was quite wrong, eh?
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Thanks for posting this. I stopped following Gary about a year ago and seeing him admit how wrong he was about Tesla, I’m glad I did.
Not if you have an agenda...and that user definitely has a agenda.
Forgive me. It’s not my intent to disregard someone’s concerns. I’m only saying that the majority of the people with range concerns, have not actually experienced owning a Tesla. To be fair, I don’t know if that was the case with this person, but that has been the case with many folks I’ve encountered. In fact, I know quite a few folks who once had range anxiety confess it was a perception and not reality once they owned a Tesla.Please, one should not disregard others' concerns simply because they are not yours.
I have owned Teslas since 2017, and while range is not an issue for my day-to-day uses, it is most certainly an issue for some of my once-a-month-or-so uses. With a nod to the moderators, I won't re-ignite the endless discussions of why more SuperChargers are desperately needed and will be for the foreseeable future, or the endless discussions of why I would immediately upgrade to a 500mi version and perhaps enough others would as well to justify production, etc.
Instead, I would simply ask everyone to consider that when someone conveys a concern of theirs that is not a concern for us, perhaps the other person is horribly mis-informed. But also, perhaps, just maybe, the other person actually has a concern that is valid for them, and one shouldn't just be dismissive of it out of hand.
This has been my experience with the exceptions of people who live in very cold climates, tow trailers, or have experience local power outages on a trip (in this last case, gas cars are not immune). All would be rectified if there was no more than 50-75 miles between Superchargers.Forgive me. It’s not my intent to disregard someone’s concerns. I’m only saying that the majority of the people with range concerns, have not actually experienced owning a Tesla. To be fair, I don’t know if that was the case with this person, but that has been the case with many folks I’ve encountered. In fact, I know quite a few folks who once had range anxiety confess it was a perception and not reality once they owned a Tesla.
EM ignores the reality of the driving publics needs, profits come from dense urban areas and they are very focused niche needs. Not broad segments and not very many cars/market. Cars make lots of trips in the city where parking is a problem. They make lots of trips for people eating out and bar hopping. They ferry airport traffic to the detriment of rental car companies. This is the market at this time and I simply do not see how it expands in a Pollyanna fashion. To expand they'll have to make it dirt cheap and the physical constraints of ferrying someone from (for example) Herndon VA to downtown DC means that a car will ferry at most 2 commuters a day. If they do 2 trips they make at least 1 if not 2 empty rides. Anyway no need to dig this all back up, you will see what Waymo does in a year or two.I have made many statements about that Waymo's RT is bad business and have been discussed to the ground. Musk predicted from years ahead thar their style of RT has only one outcome, which is BK. You have to reduce opex and hardware cost. You have to enable all routes, not like a bus type program where it goes to specific routes. To make matter worst, waymo is extremely slow vs uber and cost more. It solves no problems beside "look ma, no hands!"
L5 with cheap easy to manufacture hardware and avalible to the masses for cheap Opex or bust. Musk knows this and it's why he will die on this hill even though Tesla could do what waymo is doing(many companies have done it with way less engineers and resources, it's not difficult besides the actual profitability part).
State of California for one. Man, it's your money, invest it how you like. Don't go around blabbering that RT is going to save Tesla because those revenues are not coming anytime soon. FSD software fees, sure. TaaS with RT...nope.FIFY, who says they "cannot"?
Goodbye #5...
Okay, he wasn’t all wrong, but even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Yeah…cold climates and towing, especially towing, are range killers. Having driven Teslas since 2016, I bought a diesel truck in 2021 to tow my 25’ camper. The diesel does what I need it to, but I will soon be towing the camper with my new Cybertruck. Sure, I’ll have to stop more often, and I won’t be driving 400-500 miles a day, but I’m sooo looking forward to driving electric and the maintenance free experience!This has been my experience with the exceptions of people who live in very cold climates, tow trailers, or have experience local power outages on a trip (in this last case, gas cars are not immune). All would be rectified if there was no more than 50-75 miles between Superchargers.
50-75 miles isn't necessarily enough for areas with outages. You need Superchargers where people go regularly.This has been my experience with the exceptions of people who live in very cold climates, tow trailers, or have experience local power outages on a trip (in this last case, gas cars are not immune). All would be rectified if there was no more than 50-75 miles between Superchargers.
Ok and Tesla is not hemorrhaging monies on FSD? Waymo is not even trying to make money yet, when they put the 50k RTs on the road then they will be trying to make money. Waymo is clearly setting out to solve driving in the major Uber profit centers in the USA, even a nimnut can see this. They are solving specific issues, they are mapping everything. You keep making a blanket statement that Waymo has yet to figure out how to operate at a profit, so I would point you to this very basic super clear plan. They will roll out services in the exact same spaces as Uber once they receive their 50k vehicles. Because...drum roll. 50k vehicles will suck nearly all the profit out of TaaS in the USA. That's it. That is the profit. From there they can expand but they'll be able to do this before Tesla. 50k cars doing 50 rides a day in dense urban areas. 2,500,000 rides a day is the profit in Uber.RT is a great business as long as you can make a profit.
Waymo has not shown a path to profitability because their technology is inferior. Not only are Waymo's specially-equipped vehicles expensive, their operation is still highly dependent on lots of human labor monitoring behind the scenes and with drivers deployed in the field for when the cars get stuck.
So the more cities Waymo rolls out to, the more money they lose. Waymo has to figure out how to operate at a profit.
Tesla's approach to autonomy is far advanced of Waymo's and will be much cheaper and more profitable. The difference is that Tesla's system has taken much longer to develop.
Tesla is creating purpose-built robotaxis at a fraction of Waymo's cost. Since there is no reliance on HD maps, Tesla can quickly roll out to larger service areas. And re-mapping will never be a problem when roads change or go under construction. I also expect that Tesla's robotaxis will need far less human labor behind the scenes. The reason is that Tesla's vehicles are learning how to drive like a human. FSD is being trained to avoid difficult situations and do advanced maneuvers that Waymo can't handle with its more heuristic approach.
So the way I see this playing out is that FSD is on a trajectory to improve very, very rapidly. While Waymo continues to hemorage money after all these years, Tesla's network will be profitable relatively soon after launching. Waymo's system simply won't be able to compete on cost. So in any market Tesla wants to enter, its robotaxis will undercut the prices of Waymo, Uber, and Lyft.
Tesla wins and you won't be able to see second place with a telescope.
Uber/Waymo and Tesla solves two different problems where the problem Tesla solves will make Waymo and Uber irrelevant.Ok and Tesla is not hemorrhaging monies on FSD? Waymo is not even trying to make money yet, when they put the 50k RTs on the road then they will be trying to make money. Waymo is clearly setting out to solve driving in the major Uber profit centers in the USA, even a nimnut can see this. They are solving specific issues, they are mapping everything. You keep making a blanket statement that Waymo has yet to figure out how to operate at a profit, so I would point you to this very basic super clear plan. They will roll out services in the exact same spaces as Uber once they receive their 50k vehicles. Because...drum roll. 50k vehicles will suck nearly all the profit out of TaaS in the USA. That's it. That is the profit. From there they can expand but they'll be able to do this before Tesla. 50k cars doing 50 rides a day in dense urban areas. 2,500,000 rides a day is the profit in Uber.
Re Uber and TaaS..I've studied it. I may not be correct in all aspects but I'd want an Uber executive to dispute my analysis. I know a few specific cities such as san fran having on average 6000 cars a day. I have no idea where pricing will go but it would not surprise me to see it be free for the first 100 rides/passenger just to kill Uber in a given geography. So it is not an product/services dumping issue. The standard rate will be low, low enough to keep the Uber drivers from coming back to work.
The actual number of people ushered out may exceed 20,000, according to people familiar with the company’s planning. Musk’s reasoning, according to one person with direct knowledge of his edicts, was that Tesla should reduce headcount by 20% because its vehicle deliveries dropped by that amount from the fourth quarter to the first quarter.
Hell YES! Let's do this, but don't f***ing tease me for another 5 years. Do it and do it quick.Uber/Waymo and Tesla solves two different problems where the problem Tesla solves will make Waymo and Uber irrelevant.
Uber/Waymo is giving urbanites a way to travel in connivence for an extra fee beyond public transportation. Getting people closer to their destination without having to wait for a bus or walk up and down the subway
Tesla's RT tackles the problem of complete and full self driving to anywhere at a fraction of the cost vs OWNING YOUR OWN CAR.
In it's master plan, these RT will just straight up replace everyone's cars because there will be millions running on the road. You can call one whenever you want with less than 5 min wait time. When it's solved, Uber/Waymo/ or even car buying becomes irrelevant. This is why no one is worried about Tesla giving Waymo the market. They can go ahead and take that market and then Tesla comes in at 1/4th their price and bankrupt them then if they actually make it to 50k cars.
Because Elon expected this 2 or 3 earning call earlier. He said demand would diminish and they would still lower prices to lower or even negative margin to pump cars out. He is doing exactly as planned and what he expected is happening.How come you can take the M3 MY demand drop so easily? That alone has caused probably $50 SP decrease, and we don’t see the problem going to be alleviated in Q2.
Regarding interest rate, that is not that bad in China, but the Tesla car sales is still decreasing.
I fail to see Tesla offering a viable path to not owning a vehicle. You and others keep stating this but show no viable mechanism for Tesla to achieve it. Please provide for me an example of a RT in metro DC/LA/Chicago/etc. Map it out. Count mins and miles. Average person in the USA example Pick any large metro region. I think you are in Seattle. Use Everett to Seattle. 24 miles. It's about average. To ensure you are there on time 19/20 days you need to count on 70 or so mins according to the data I see. One way...70 mins...for 1 passenger, twice a day. Now during the rest of the day....tell me what the cars are doing? It can't take an early commuter unless you think there is a rush at 530am. So it was busy from 7:45 to 9:00am and will be again from 5:00 to 6:15pm. It won't make it back to Seattle to get another commuter, even if it dead headed (riding with no load). So, it can take 1 person a day on commuting.Uber/Waymo and Tesla solves two different problems where the problem Tesla solves will make Waymo and Uber irrelevant.
Uber/Waymo is giving urbanites a way to travel in connivence for an extra fee beyond public transportation. Getting people closer to their destination without having to wait for a bus or walk up and down the subway
Tesla's RT tackles the problem of complete and full self driving to anywhere at a fraction of the cost vs OWNING YOUR OWN CAR.
In it's master plan, these RT will just straight up replace everyone's cars because there will be millions running on the road. You can call one whenever you want with less than 5 min wait time. When it's solved, Uber/Waymo/ or even car buying becomes irrelevant. This is why no one is worried about Tesla giving Waymo the market. They can go ahead and take that market and then Tesla comes in at 1/4th their price and bankrupt them then if they actually make it to 50k cars.
I’m not sure this is accurate, but if it is then it’s very odd logic. Can’t cut your way to growth.Elon Musk’s Robotaxi Dreams Plunge Tesla Into Chaos
The stock is sliding, a cheaper electric car is deprioritized and the CEO is riling the workforce with his biggest layoffs yet.www.bloomberg.com
Super genius at work.