TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ken830]

Man. I can't keep up with the pace of this thread so I'm sorry if this has already been discussed and I missed it in the last few pages... but in case it hasn't been mentioned here yet... Tesla appears to be preparing to deliver Performance AWD Model 3 next week. My Delivery Advisor said that from what she sees in logistics, my car will be scheduled for delivery between mid and late next week. I specifically asked her if I am among the first, and she said this is the first batch. Super stoked for the car and for the upcoming reviews!

 

[Do It]

Finally find my profile picture...

 

[bdy0627]

Anyone else enjoy seeing the WSJ diss on MBSpiegel?

 

[juanmedina]

Anyone else enjoy seeing the WSJ diss on MBSpiegel?

View attachment 318261

I wondering if he referring also to the performance part...

 

[MP3Mike]

I wondering if he referring also to the performance part...

I'm pretty sure that the 3P will crush it on yearly deliveries, and why not performance as well? (0-60 for sure 3.5 vs 4.3)

 

[juanmedina]

I'm pretty sure that the 3P will crush it on yearly deliveries, and why not performance as well? (0-60 for sure 3.5 vs 4.3)

Road coarse performance is the hard one

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Road coarse performance is the hard one

Dan doesn’t seem to think so....

 

[aznt1217]

A week or so ago I visited the San Diego service center (hit a pothole, tire had sidewall damage). I didn't actually count, but there were about 50 cars visible in the parking area, and there's another parking area out back that you can't see. Most were M3s. Oh, and three full car carriers parked in the street outside. Unfortunately the SC backs onto an active quarry, and your car is covered in dust within an hour of it being parked outside.

This dude is a clown. He’s trying to come off as intelligent by doing his “channel checks” and wording things in his broken English to create analytical framework. His abilities are limited. I debated replying to his tweets but found it to be a waste of time.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Whoooo boy, Elon's back with more AnAlYSTs aRE bOnEHeADs!

Elon Musk on Twitter

After today's downgrade did almost nothing, I don't think he's afraid of the aNaLYstS anymore haha

At this point all the ANaLySTs should just downgrade TSLA to Sell because it does nothing and no one cares, TSLA is already the most downgraded American company stock ever according to Bloomberg LMAO

Terms of Service Violation

 

[Boomer19]

Man. I can't keep up with the pace of this thread so I'm sorry if this has already been discussed and I missed it in the last few pages... but in case it hasn't been mentioned here yet... Tesla appears to be preparing to deliver Performance AWD Model 3 next week. My Delivery Advisor said that from what she sees in logistics, my car will be scheduled for delivery between mid and late next week. I specifically asked her if I am among the first, and she said this is the first batch. Super stoked for the car and for the upcoming reviews!

congrats man!
i have a few friends waiting for same. then AWD and more with the reg LR RWD that’s out there. and then more with SR RWD in future

 

[neroden]

Well...
I don't doubt demand in general, but demand in US only, for people ready to buy right now, cars starting at $50K+, yeah, I can see some (low) probability Tesla may have to pull a lever or two during the next 6 months to flush out all the money from the mattresses... Now, we know Tesla has those levers, but just the fact of Tesla pulling them, may create noise and FUD.

Like, Tesla might need to start producing AWD cars in high volume (hopefully early August), or start producing white interiors in volume (no idea when they'll deal with that bottleneck)? Yeah, they'll have to pull a lever or two like actually offering the options.

 

[neroden]

It could also be any one of their thousands of suppliers shipments was late with a shipment (even a day). Or really any other reason, a machine needed maintenance, they are testing something new, etc. Seriously, this level of microscopic detail is absurd. No other car company's production is tracked per model per day. This is going to produce the same type of errors/misconceptions as the batch to other countries (omg sales to norway are down 90% this month b/c none shipped to norway, instead to china ...omg china sales up 1200% this week)

I suspect in this case it's production retooling of one sort or another. They found the bottlenecks in prodction, now they're fixing them.

 

[neroden]

It's called labeling and something Tesla still seems to have a lot of trouble with, according to those slides from Andrej Karparthy that were linked some weeks ago. Google has been doing that for years and seems to have a pretty good working system.

It doesn't really work. Frankly I've caught Recaptcha making *errors* -- misclassifying stuff. Makes it very annoying.

 

[mmd]

Whoooo boy, Elon's back with more AnAlYSTs aRE bOnEHeADs!

Elon Musk on Twitter

After today's downgrade did almost nothing, I don't think he's afraid of the aNaLYstS anymore haha

At this point all the ANaLySTs should just downgrade TSLA to Sell because it does nothing and no one cares, TSLA is already the most downgraded American company stock ever according to Bloomberg LMAO

Terms of Service Violation

Dunno where this bs is coming from. Who knows about the future, but last week we had over 2000 S/X and 5000 Model 3 *new* net orders.

Does this 5000 include old reservations converting to "orders" or not? These terms are so mixed up, I can't figure out if apple is being compared to orange.

Was it also not the first week orders were opened to all? Yes, it was.
Tesla opens Model 3 order book to all as tax credits begin to wind down

What is known (based on Tesla statements) is that at end of Q1, there were 450k res. End of Q2, 18440 model 3 delivered and 420k res. So definitely, during Q2, net cancellations (cancellations - new res) were faster ((30000-18440)/13 = 889/week). If (new res - cancellations) can't keep up with 1418/week delivery rate, what's going to happen when 10k a week is reached?
No need to be an analyst to figure that one out!
Why are these res numbers always nicely rounded numbers ?

Number of people waiting for vin or delivery are declining (from Troy's sheet). Not sure if it tells something.

 

[ggr]

Does this 5000 include old reservations converting to "orders" or not? These terms are so mixed up, I can't figure out if apple is being compared to orange.

Was it also not the first week orders were opened to all?
Tesla opens Model 3 order book to all as tax credits begin to wind down

Number of people waiting for vin or delivery are declining (from Troy's sheet). Not sure if it tells something.
View attachment 318315

I think it tells that the cars are being delivered.

 

[oneday]

Does this 5000 include old reservations converting to "orders" or not? These terms are so mixed up, I can't figure out if apple is being compared to orange.

Was it also not the first week orders were opened to all? Yes, it was.
Tesla opens Model 3 order book to all as tax credits begin to wind down

What is known (based on Tesla statements) is that at end of Q1, there were 450k res. End of Q2, 18440 model 3 delivered and 420k res. So definitely, during Q2, net cancellations (cancellations - new res) were faster ((30000-18440)/13 = 889/week). If (new res - cancellations) can't keep up with 1418/week delivery rate, what's going to happen when 10k a week is reached?
No need to be an analyst to figure that one out!
Why are these res numbers always nicely rounded numbers ?

Number of people waiting for vin or delivery are declining (from Troy's sheet). Not sure if it tells something.
View attachment 318315

Elon specifically said new net orders. Net has one meaning here. If you strain really really hard you might be able to figure it out.

Troys data is coming from a smaller and smaller sample size compared to overall orders. The numbers need to be extrapolated out to estimate what is actually happening. The multiplication factor needs to go up as configuration rates go up.

 

[mmd]

I think it tells that the cars are being delivered.

But then, new people should be waiting for the next dellveries, right?

One possibility is that the cars are now being delivered faster,so fewer people are waiting for vin or delivery.
Or it could just be that new people don't report ti anymore, since there is no waiting for configuring.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Elon specifically said new net orders. Net has one meaning here. If you strain really really hard you might be able to figure it out.

Troys data is coming from a smaller and smaller sample size compared to overall orders. The numbers need to be extrapolated out to estimate what is actually happening. The multiplication factor goes up as people as configuration rates go up.

Firstly, I don't even know who are you debating and what he/she said.

However, with Musk, I wouldn't bet that I know what 'net new orders' mean.
Like, does conversion from reservation to order counts as an net new order (A)? Also, all the brand new orders that never vent through reservation state(B)?

If you're certain you know, good for you. I'm not. After years of observing Musk, parsing his words with benefits of hindsight, and also working with many, many Engineers on the spectrum, I'm very careful of Engineering use of language that is not 100% precise and requires making assumptions.

I would always confirm assumptions with the source if available. This is not even unique to Musk. I've blown a gasket many times when some of my Engineers thought their interpretation was the obvious one, while just about anyone else in the company understood it differently.

Oh, if I had to guess, I would guess net new orders = A+B-number_of_cancellations.
Yup, it doesn't make sense.
It doesn't even align with the tone of the tweet.
Yes, that's still my guess.

 

[Mich]

Oh, if I had to guess, I would guess net new orders = A+B-number_of_cancellations.
Yup, it doesn't make sense.
It doesn't even align with the tone of the tweet.
Yes, that's still my guess.

Agree.

Order vs. "New order" is pretty clear. Every order coming in is a new order.
Net vs. Non-net is also clear.

But I think 5000 orders a week for the current premium offer and us/canada only is impressive.

 

[lklundin]

There may have been ambiguity in terms. The 1k fully refundable reservation deposit is no more, the $2,500 order deposit lives on. The order deposit is refundable only until VIN assignment/ vehicle matching.

I guess it is implicitly stated that the above is only in the US + Canada. For other countries (I just checked only Germany and Australia) the M3 reservation procedure is unchanged.