TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[humbaba]

VWAG is going to be a net gross winner too. I'm pretty certain of it. Their problem overall is conglomerate fragmentation, but they will have battery and electric technology (batteries, suppliers, manufacturing efficiencies, charging network, third party accessories) economies of scale that no other single OEM has/will have.

No ONE brand will be a huge winner probably, but across VW, Audi, Skoda, SEAT, Porsche, Lambo, etc. their gross sales will be compelling pretty soon. More international at first, but NA within 12-18 months.

I'm just curious, but what gross sales do you think will be "compelling pretty soon"? You say within the next year or so for north america and if you mean EV -- Audi isn't even planning on delivering etrons in that time frame. I'm just having trouble figuring out what it is you are referring to.

 

[SO16]

All joking aside, if Andrew Left wants to join the longs for the long term, I'd be glad to have him. Just not sure if that's his intention or rather a pump and dump...

If someone has been pounding my face in for years, it would take a long time for me to ever trust them.

 

[Krugerrand]

Not all shorts are dumb, they are most probably doing it for the money, they won money by riding Tsla down and will make more by riding it up now.
My impression is that they will ride whatever makes them money in the future, getting back to short Tsla if the FUD intensifies or staying long if things look great or FOMO prevails.

Not all shorts are dumb, but this one had to do a lot of work to try and keep TSLA and Tesla down. If they’d used half that energy to be long since 2012, they all could have retired to their own private islands by now. Sounds stupid to me.

 

[neroden]

I had to unfollow after he? suggested mutual funds are a bad idea for 401k accounts.

On the one hand, I think he's right for anyone who actually does investing research (I really dislike mutual funds), but on the other hand, mutual funds are usually the only option your employer allows, so it's basically a useless suggestion. Sort of like suggesting that we shouldn't use dollars to pay our US taxes.

 

[NikeWings]

Don't worry: we should actually welcome half of the shorts screwing the other half of the shorts by defecting and demoralizing, so that there's a molten crater in the ground, glowing in the dark for centuries, with a sign saying: "Here lie those who went short TSLA".

I do suspect there are some significant shorts who are in an effective bear trap now. Their covering might be spectacular, once it happens.



Here you go: - that's shortly before the event, because this is a family friendly forum.

HA HA you crack me up and educate me........and remain steadfast behind TSLA. I think I like you.

 

[neroden]

That's when others (e.g. Motorola. LG Samsung) quickly step in and offered competitors. Where are the competitors for Tesla?

Technically, they're in China. BYD, Geely, SAIC/Roewe, BAIC.

The big car makers are hopeless. Till today they are more interested in protecting their ICE business.

Yeppers. Though VW and BMW both have a chance of turning it around. Everyone else seems way too far behind...

 

[SOULPEDL]

For some reason, I have a sort of generic professional admiration for skill, even when it's skill in thieving, lying, market manipulation, seizing power, or even being bloodsucking parasites. (The tricks of some ticks are so impressive.)

So he's your idol?

 

[DaveT]

Here’s the thing about Citron and Andrew Left. This is one of the biggest defections we have ever had in the TSLA short world. He’s not just a TSLA short who’s become a TSLA long. Rather, he’s an ideological TSLA short with a large following who’s become a TSLA long. This is important to note, because it is exactly this kind of defection that is needed to mental the shorts. In a way, one of their leaders need to jump ship to the other side in order for others to do the same.

In war language, this is one of the top generals of the enemy who didn’t decide to commit suicide, but rather he decided to join the other side because he says the other side is going to win and it’s obvious.

More thoughts on this, DaveT on Chatstarter: "Has Andrew Left just started a mass exodus of..."

 

[neroden]

Someone is loading up on protection big time. Tesla is up and yet the October 26th 250 puts price is also up. It was as high as $10.

Aw, ****, I'd sworn I wasn't going to make my Tesla investment any larger... I would have sold those... Oh, OK, I missed that opportunity. Phew....

 

[Krugerrand]

I think this reversal makes sense. They can hype the stock upto $599, then resume shorting above $600. They'll have the opportunity to short Tesla from $600 to $400, which gives them much better upside potential than trying to the stock under $300. The price suppression going on is absurd. The stock needs to be thoroughly hyped up to become a good short target again.

Yes, makes sense as you’ve said AND I don’t like it. You push them into the street and I will gladly drive my bus over them.

 

[neroden]

I'm not very clear on the slaying concept.
The volume Tesla can put out is nowhere near to the numbers that are bought every year. Then there won't be enough for all. What will they do? Wait in line for 5 more years or buy whatever is available?

I guess if more and more people want a Tesla, but can't afford one, they might be delaying their purchase in hopes that prices go down and lines get smaller and if there are many of these, then ICE manufacturers may go BK with no new sales, but is it a reason to celebrate if there are no EVs available to replace them? At that point we might have more used cars on the market due to people buying EVs and those deferred sales could be jumping into the used car market... But from here we're kinda against the wall if there are not enough EVs and no new ICEs. Border case, of course, it may not happen like this.

However, some people are not even considering Tesla due to price. This weekend my neighbor had some relative come over and she was going to go car shopping. I offered her a test drive of my M3 and she was like no, I need my monthly payment to be this much, so just no. I mentioned 45k starting price and 12k incentives, still no interest.

My other neighbor did take it for a test drive and said he regretted just buying a truck.

Anyway, it's an interesting topic of what will happen when there's enough EV sales and enough deferred sales waiting for a cheaper EV.

What do people think will be a breaking point?
Like 10% of vehicles on the street being EVs? 20%?

Interesting question... can you take it over to General Discussion? There's a lot to be said about it and many opinions.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Its like they just opened their eyes and uncovered their ears. "Oh, look, wow! No one could have seen that this was coming."

Wall St is Kabuki Theater, and CNBC is an actor with a painted face.

 

[neroden]

Yes it is and a good example of why you should never talk politics. I agree with most of what other things you write, but your political comments are awful. For instance, there is a very good reason why Wyoming has as much clout in the Senate (but not the house, nor electing the President, you neglected to mention that) as California. The constitution regards States as sovereign, not as mere districts in a country. This allows States to have quite different laws on many things. High tax states, gay right states, law and order states, etc. As part of this autonomy, each State was given equal power in the Senate. It isn’t an anachronism. It isn’t a mistake. It is part of the best governance system the world has ever seen.

Tell that to the people who created the state boundaries for the purposes of slave state / free state gerrymandering in the pre-Civil War period -- or later, for Republican vs. Democratic gerrymandering, which led to the double representation of the state of Dakota. Ask yourself why DC and Puerto Rico don't have statehood despite demanding it.

The early days when all oversized states were expected to "spin off" new states (as Virginia "spun off" Kentucky) ended quick, and it turned into dirty political infighting.

Some states are real entities with their own character and history. Others, like Wyoming and the Dakotas, were essentially gerrymandered into existence to manipulate the vote count in the Senate. That's history.

(It does also tell you the traditional way of dealing with the problem. Step one, make Puerto Rico and DC into states; step two, carve several new states out of California and New York, like Maine was carved out of Massachusetts. Because adding states only requires a bare majority vote in the Senate & House, and can't be vetoed. This is a crappy system, but it will work and may be required.)

 

[Remus]

Technically, they're in China. BYD, Geely, SAIC/Roewe, BAIC.


Yeppers. Though VW and BMW both have a chance of turning it around. Everyone else seems way too far behind...

You will wait for a really long time before Chinese competitors gain manufacturing and chemical engineering know-how to compete.

 

[neroden]

Looks like I a few hundred millions short. Can I barrow a few hundreds of millions Neo?

If you can, tell me who lent them to you so I can borrow them too I ain't that rich.

 

[Fact Checking]

 

[neroden]

You will wait for a really long time before Chinese competitors gain manufacturing and chemical engineering know-how to compete.

We'll see what the numbers look like after Tesla is producing in China for the Chinese market. I believe it will be fair to describe the Chinese competitors as competitors within that market.

 

[Krugerrand]

Bought 10 more at 275 today. Total of 130 now for an average of 280. It was my first trade on an up day, usually I buy on down days.

No matter what we think of Left/Citron, his analysis is very strong. I think it’s just matter of time before more naysayers will realize what’s happening with Tesla.

It’s not his analysis, though. It belongs mostly to Zach.

 

[tivoboy]

I'm just curious, but what gross sales do you think will be "compelling pretty soon"? You say within the next year or so for north america and if you mean EV -- Audi isn't even planning on delivering etrons in that time frame. I'm just having trouble figuring out what it is you are referring to.

Audi stated plans to have the new etron COV by "mid 2019", with the current A3 etron continuing to be sold. VW e-golf will continue as well. Nobody's talking M3 numbers here in NA but it won't be crumbs by end of 2019 IMHO.

 

[winfield100]

I won't be surprised if some of the smarter shorts have been quietly getting long. Finally it will be the dumb types who follow some nasty guys on twitter and invest money who will lose all the money.

perhaps OT or not, but about 200 million shares have been purchased at slightly higher prices than sold at slightly lower prices, IF you believe the Accumulation/Distribution Line