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Recent content by Doggydogworld

  1. Doggydogworld

    Coronavirus

    I think some more states have switched to epi reporting even for cases, so there always seems to be a big drop in the most recent 10 days or so. The 7 day average yesterday, August 7, was 81k. Let's see if it's still 81k in a week or two.
  2. Doggydogworld

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    Size isn't the issue with loitering time. This guy stuffed extra 2170s into his RC plane and flew 10+ hours. It's closer to the length of a Switchblade 600 but the (pre-battery) weight of a 300. And his plane is a behemoth compared to the Nano Goblin which can fly over an hour out of the box...
  3. Doggydogworld

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Just to be clear, I responded to a comment about the EU 95g regulations, which included Super Credits for EVs and other stuff like .... umm.... Better refrigerants, maybe? Anyway, it's similar to CA ZEV in some ways, but on a different continent. As for Toyota, I think they get CA ZEV credits...
  4. Doggydogworld

    All discussion of Rivian Automotive

    I don't think they give monthly numbers. If July was good they'll highlight it during the 8/11 earnings call.
  5. Doggydogworld

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Yes, but Super Credits were capped. They didn't apply to every EV sold. I can't quote the exact details any more, but the effect was limited to something like 7.5g of fleet CO2 benefit spread over three years (so 2.5g each year or 7.5g one year when you really need help and 0 the other two...
  6. Doggydogworld

    Autonomous Car Progress

    Actually hands-on L2 is kind of silly. If I have to hold my hands on the wheel I might as well steer. It doesn't require any extra effort.
  7. Doggydogworld

    Autonomous Car Progress

    I don't think anyone will deploy Level 3 without lidar. Economic risk is a legislative/political issue, though. Companies would gladly take on a 5m per death type of risk IMHO. But look at this 124.5m judgement against Audi: Jurors found Audi and Volkswagen 55 percent responsible for the...
  8. Doggydogworld

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    For months you've said an oil price collapse is imminent, now you say crazy-high earnings will continue? Which is it? Coal generation dropped from 2000 TWh in 2008 to 800 TWh in 2020. Global oil consumption would have to drop 5m bpd each year to match that. Even a global ICE car ban wouldn't...
  9. Doggydogworld

    Autonomous Car Progress

    Joshua Brown had a Mobileye car. My best guess is it only used the camera for lane lines and used radar lock for car-following. The tendency to plow into stopped vehicles tells me that system was not trained to recognize vehicle rear ends. Early non-Mobileye AP worked the same way, IMHO. Super...
  10. Doggydogworld

    Autonomous Car Progress

    That was a divided highway, just not controlled access. That stretch of US-27A is added to Super Cruise in this update. There is no traffic light at the intersection with NE 140th Ct. I don't know how GM would handle a truck (or car, etc.) turning across their path. They can't hand off control...
  11. Doggydogworld

    All discussion of Lucid Motors

    A few years ago Lucid was running out of cash, which eventually cost them a couple years of time-to-market. I said at the time Mercedes should scoop them up. Still think it could have worked, the EQS is pretty underwhelming. No, losing on every car you make means higher sales will cause higher...
  12. Doggydogworld

    All discussion of Lucid Motors

    Lucid delivered 319 more vehicles in Q2 than Q1. ASP fell ~10%, but IMHO that's due to fewer Founders Editions or whatever rather than actual content reductions that would lower COGS. So those 319 incremental vehicles caused 46m of incremental COGS, implying a variable cost of 144m. That's...
  13. Doggydogworld

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    BYD posts 162k sales in July. 4k overseas. Almost exactly 50% PHEV again, has to be by plan. 800k YTD, up an insane 4x from 200k last year. There was a crazy article in CNEVPost that mentioned hitting 300k/month by August. I also saw 250k somewhere else. That seems impossible, but 200k might...
  14. Doggydogworld

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    Indeed, life will improve dramatically once we outlaw free markets and turn total control over to politicians and bureaucrats. Confiscation of wasteful long-range BEVs will begin immediately so that each battery can be broken up and put into multiple Hongguang Minis for the proletariat to...
  15. Doggydogworld

    Investor Engineering Discussions

    Who could have ever predicted such a thing? Elon started backing away from DBE almost immediately, but he's been more optimistic lately. I think they've made some real progress the past few months, after a couple years of banging their heads against the wall with little to show for it. I was...

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