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But it's a DMV deployment permit, not a testing permit. Go to this DMV page and click on the links for Driverless Testing and Testing with a Safety Driver. Under the "Requirements" area of each you'll see rules for Collision Reporting. But click on the link for Autonomous Vehicle Deployment...

Yeah, it's pretty ridiculous to post such numbers and not give investors a clear explanation. They talk about fixed costs, but total D&A including non-factory stuff like offices, CAD systems, etc. was only 69m in Q1. That's at most 17% of COGS or about 35k/car and realistically maybe 15% / 30k...

They only report to DMV when operating under their testing permit. Their pay-per-ride service operates under their CPUC deployment permit.

I don't think so. In January a Waymo ran a red light due to bad remote assistant instructions. The Waymo then detected a crossing moped and stopped, but the moped fell over anyway presumably attempting an evasive maneuver. The two vehicles never came in contact and the moped left the scene, but...

Door panels are thick for side impact. They aren't structural. Take the doors off and the truck wouldn't suddenly get all flexy. I also remembered something about the sails helping rigidity -- in fact I thought that's why they got rid of the sail storage bins. But this guy says otherwise. Maybe...

It's more than macro. Tesla car sales were growing wildly, now they're shrinking. The rest of the industry is mixed, some up y/y and some down. Tesla let their lineup get stale, with the exception of CyberTruck which is niche and very hard to build. Agreed. Elon may be reacting to an awful...

Is that a guy in a construction vest on the right? I wonder if there is off-camera construction down that street? Hard to tell what's going on here without more context.

Operating income is basically EBIT. There's a small "Other (expense) income, net" line item below the operating income line that you might add back in, since it's not interest or tax.

Yeah, very informative video. Best closeups of the castings I've seen, with all their sophisticated webbing and other design features. He points out several minor "time to market" kludges which I figure Tesla will fix over time. I wish he'd gone into the weight savings more, I've read a few auto...

Great job. Charging on midday solar is the best of all worlds. I am surprised you had to do it manually until now, some EVSEs have offered "charge on excess solar" type features for years. This really only happens in regions with low solar penetration. As solar scales utilities pretty quickly...

It would explain the left turn if Waymo's programmers mistakenly defined a general rule that "taxis get to do what buses do and we're a taxi, so.....". This sudden rash of blatant traffic violations is pretty disturbing. I do wish Waymo would cut the corpspeak for a while and actually explain...

Hi, I think I saw your ad on Craigslist, too. Anyway, how long have you had it? When were the battery modules replaced?

Yeah, plus Tesla warranty replacements are not necessarily "new" batteries. 30k is quite high. I just tried to buy a 2016 (pre-refresh) 85D with 5x,xxx miles and FUSC that was listed for 20k. Some dealers have them for even less, but SC status is unclear.

Hi, are you sure the Free SC transfers to the new owner (i.e. SC01)? Tesla sold a lot of CPOs with Free SC that doesn't transfer (SC04, I think). If you don't know for sure there's a convoluted way to check the status. Thanks.

Nice setup! I first thought Little Guy Max, but the windows are wrong. NuCamp T@B 400? How do you like it? I'm looking into teardrops myself. How fast do you drive on flat highways and how many Wh per mile do you typically get?

Confident? He said "I think we will have higher sales this year than last year." When he's confident he uses much stronger language (and is still way off): "I feel very confident predicting 1 million autonomous robo-taxis for Tesla next year (i.e. 2020)" "Meaning the car will be able to find...

This math only makes sense if earnings are constant. If earnings grow it may be better to repurchase stock even at 30 p/e. Also, they can't effectively repurchase those low coupon bonds at 6% YTM. If covenants allow they could in theory buy some via tender offer at a premium to market, e.g...

May I suggest the Super Bulls Only Thread? 50%??? Tesla dropped the 50% language for a reason. This year looks slightly down followed by two years of maybe 10-20%. That's not a bear thesis (I just got called a KoolAid drinker on Reddit, fwiw). It's a neutral interpretation of Tesla's recent ER...

Yeah, high mileage drivers aren't the target market. Robos will initially target urban, where annual miles average more like 500-800/month and parking can easily hit $1/mile by itself. 2nd/3rd cars in suburbia is the other big target. In the US depreciation alone is close to 33 cents a mile...

Tony Seba's model has TAAS cost at 14 cents a mile. But he ignores ...... well, a lot. In theory TAAS has four main cost advantages over private car ownership: Amortize $30k vehicle cost over 500-1000k miles instead of 150k Electricity instead of gasoline (for society at large, not this...

The Q4 to Q1 comparison is kinda silly. China's auto market in general and BYD in particular are highly seasonal. BYD would have down Q1s even back when they were growing >100% y/y. Tesla's China revenues were down 25% sequentially in Q1 vs. BYD's 30%. Perhaps BYD's segments are even more...

His TAAS forecasts were anchored on 2020 approval, which did happen, and complete takeover by 2030 with TAAS providing 95% of all passenger miles, the US car fleet down to 44m cars, etc. Those two dates are in the "ReThinking Transportation" summary, so you don't even need to download the full...

Remote monitors (not drivers) don't "intervene". They respond to requests from the vehicle, approve the suggested path or specify a new one. Sometimes they do more harm than good. Waymo is moving from Jag to Zeekr and cheaper lidar. They indicated the Gen 5 Jag was ~100k so look for Gen 6...

I also laugh at this thread's title. That said, Tesla's Q1 sales were down 7.8% y/y in Cali, a bit less than their global 8.5% decline. They still managed to sell 11.6% of all new vehicles in the state and are the #2 overall brand. Not quite a "demise".

If you plan carefully and do enough pre-production you can start regular production at a good clip. When Ford switched the F-150 to aluminum they stopped production on August 24, 2014. They stripped the factory down to the studs, installed all new equipment, tested the new line, built...

The term disengagement is really only useful when there is a safety driver. A driverless car doesn't disengage itself, it might pull over and call for assistance but it stays in autonomous mode. Roadside assistance can manually disengage it when they arrive, that's what your spreadsheet reports...

Unless it's Munger or Buffet :)

In the earnings call they said "The savings generated are expected to be well in excess of $1.1 billion on an annual basis". Despite the odd phrasing, I interpret this to mean a bit less than 300m/quarter. The savings should be a bit less in Q2 since the cuts didn't all happen on Day 1, but it...

I agree it's all guesswork. My guesses: 1. TSLA was 171 before Reuters 4/5 Model 2 story, relief rallied back after Tesla's vague "new vehicles including more affordable models" statement 2. Robotaxi also helped, even traders who don't drink the KoolAid believe Elon will put on a killer demo in...

It won't be built. Instead they will bring "new models" to market sooner, built on 3/Y production lines. They said almost nothing about these new models, except they'll combine some new stuff with some old stuff which is too obvious to be meaningful. Some new models will be more affordable, some...

I can't imagine Alphabet is the least bit pleased with Waymo's progress. But they're stuckvestors. And it's best to preempt analyst questions vs. dance around "how many more billion are you willing to lose?" or "how will you counter Tesla's imminent Robotaxi rollout?" :) Thinking further on...

The first "off-road" variant would only expand breadth a little, but could get to market quickly. It could have a different name, despite the similar sheet metal underneath. The SUV-shaped variant would expand breadth a lot. Similar to a jump from RAV4 over Highlander all the way to Grand...

I agree. It'll be built in Shanghai, which serves Europe and Asia. Shanghai serves the whole world, for that matter, except the US which doesn't buy small cars anyway..Shanghai has the lowest costs and doesn't need unboxed, so it's the obvious choice for a lower cost vehicle. Shanghai can also...

Europe had sky-high gas taxes for decades, yet EVs were only 3-4% of the market until EU 95g mandated an overnight ramp to 20% in 2020-21.

This is along the same lines as my thinking yesterday. Today is a new day, so time for a new theory :) IMHO Tesla will build multiple new models starting in early 2025: Early 2025 - "off-road" variant of Model Y. Little/no sheet metal changes, mostly lift kit and plastic cladding. Costs more...

Yes, China wants to beat Japan, Korea and the West as the third world's preferred auto supplier. But the main motivation behind China's EV push is to eliminate oil imports. They don't need 100% EV sales for that, but do need >50%. It's not about climate, just economics and geopolitics. Often...

Ford Q1 US BEV sales were +86% y/y, to 20k+. But that's sales to end customers. These revenue charts are based on wholesale to dealers. They barely shipped any Lightnings to dealers in Q1 2024. Partly due to production issues, but mostly dealers needed to clear out old inventory before stocking...

1. Interest rates aren't high, they were just low for a freakishly long period 2. Monthly payment on 30k loan for 5 years - 6% interest = 579.98 3% interest = 539.06 It's not nothing, but most people got raises. ICE sales are doing fine. Tesla's main issue was a limited, aging lineup. Which...

Shortened/lengthened wheelbases and different bodies are pretty common. Mercedes Factory 56 line builds S Class and Maybach in varying wheelbases. Honda and Toyota are especially known for multiple models on the same line. Here's a 5 year old article about a new type of line Toyota was playing...

I have to think all lenders require gap insurance.

50% is wildly optimistic for 2025 IMHO. Great point. I expect to first see something like an "off-road" Model Y with the same sheet metal but different name. More rugged fascia, lifted, all-terrain tires, maybe plastic cladding a la Cybertruck wheel wells and options available for roof racks...

"This would help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles" The stated capacity today is greater than 2,350,000. How much greater? We don't know, but they lowball Shanghai by at least 100k and the existing ">125k" Cybertruck line is designed for...

I've seen more examples of Waymo bad driving recently than ever before. Part of this is because they're driving more miles, but I also think they dialed up the aggressiveness. Maybe too much.

Brad is on Reddit, you could ask him. It could be in AZ, as you say, or I think it also could have been in San Francisco under Waymo's deployment permit instead of their testing permit.

Maybe, I don't have a good feel for that. Yeah, I probably should have said "mothballed". They can call anything a Model 2, of course. But IMHO they won't build the Model 2 they spent the last couple years designing in 2025 (or 2026). Their 3/Y manufacturing lines are pretty hardwired. It'll...

I think it's smart. Other OEMs have long built many different "models" from the same basic car. If they use different model names it could knock Model Y from the #1 spot, though. Polished body dies take a long time, that's why I think any new model that starts production before 2H25 as...

It means they won't build any new factories for a while. I think the market is interpreting this as 3m/year soon. But that depends on how the new 3/Y variants sell.

It means Model 2 is dead, instead they'll build lower cost 3/Y variants on existing production lines. These variants might have some newer features, like 48V. They won't be 25k, but probably a few thousand less than current 3/Y. I expect some variants will have body mods, e.g. maybe a Y with a...

Tesla has a negative cash conversion cycle. Operating assets generate FCF during growth, drain cash when they shrink. It's the opposite of most companies. Q1 exacerbated this with a huge inventory build.

Yeah, it's not next-gen, just stripped-down 3/Ys built on existing lines.