Recent content by Out4aDuck

Incredible! There are some serious haters out there. Speaking for the other 99%, your work is nothing short of sensational, Troy.

I enjoy reading the enthusiastic comments, but the reality is that Tesla is progressing on an S-shaped ramp-up to a sustained 5000. We have just passed through that inflection point of the curve, so it's not reasonable to expect that production will double over last quarter. There's still a...

It must have been a Tesla corporate car. Way too old for a demo. Way too many miles for a loaner. It had to be used for company business.

Obviously, Tesla is delaying US deliveries until July so that the FIT credit can be extended one more quarter. I don't think there's anything more to it than that.

Looking at the rate of M3 VIN assignments, it doesn't look like they're producing anything close to 2000/week this quarter. If most of the June M3 deliveries go to Canada, number 200,000 will easily be in early July. I'm convinced now that my June estimate was incorrect.

There are no I's in VIN.

First of all, thank you luvb2b for sharing your detailed analysis. I'm always impressed. The only question I had was regarding lease revenue. You expect it to increase significantly despite selling 6600 fewer S/X than last quarter. Then to puzzle me even more, Reality was of the opinion that...

The links to the new speadsheets don't work for me. Is there a trick?

Based on the Bloomberg Tracker, I'm feeling more and more comfortable with my June forecast.

A VIN is the very first thing in the life of the car. It's the tracking number on the build sheet. Tesla has historically communicated the VIN to the customer as soon as it was available. But for the Model 3, they scheduled batches of VIN's which were later matched to customer orders. That's...

I share SarahsDad's concerns. The table is set for a very bad week. But it could be a trading opportunity.

Those new VIN's will not be produced in Q1. I think schonelucht nailed nailed the numbers on the first try. And I have to agree with AlMc's production assessment.

The odds are 1 in 100.

I'm not sure what you mean by ordering after the middle of March. But Dec-Jan North American orders are now receiving their VIN's. You should expect yours very soon and delivery in March.

It's unlikely that FSD will be legal in the next 10 years, even if Tesla is ready. The decision to purchase today is a no-brainer.