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Incredible! There are some serious haters out there. Speaking for the other 99%, your work is nothing short of sensational, Troy.

I enjoy reading the enthusiastic comments, but the reality is that Tesla is progressing on an S-shaped ramp-up to a sustained 5000. We have just passed through that inflection point of the curve, so it's not reasonable to expect that production will double over last quarter. There's still a...

It must have been a Tesla corporate car. Way too old for a demo. Way too many miles for a loaner. It had to be used for company business.

Obviously, Tesla is delaying US deliveries until July so that the FIT credit can be extended one more quarter. I don't think there's anything more to it than that.

Looking at the rate of M3 VIN assignments, it doesn't look like they're producing anything close to 2000/week this quarter. If most of the June M3 deliveries go to Canada, number 200,000 will easily be in early July. I'm convinced now that my June estimate was incorrect.

There are no I's in VIN.

First of all, thank you luvb2b for sharing your detailed analysis. I'm always impressed. The only question I had was regarding lease revenue. You expect it to increase significantly despite selling 6600 fewer S/X than last quarter. Then to puzzle me even more, Reality was of the opinion that...

The links to the new speadsheets don't work for me. Is there a trick?

Based on the Bloomberg Tracker, I'm feeling more and more comfortable with my June forecast.

A VIN is the very first thing in the life of the car. It's the tracking number on the build sheet. Tesla has historically communicated the VIN to the customer as soon as it was available. But for the Model 3, they scheduled batches of VIN's which were later matched to customer orders. That's...

I share SarahsDad's concerns. The table is set for a very bad week. But it could be a trading opportunity.

Those new VIN's will not be produced in Q1. I think schonelucht nailed nailed the numbers on the first try. And I have to agree with AlMc's production assessment.

The odds are 1 in 100.

I'm not sure what you mean by ordering after the middle of March. But Dec-Jan North American orders are now receiving their VIN's. You should expect yours very soon and delivery in March.

It's unlikely that FSD will be legal in the next 10 years, even if Tesla is ready. The decision to purchase today is a no-brainer.

There has to be something else triggering the trading robots. The CNBC article could not have that impact - it was just coincidental timing.

The production rate has not changed in the last year and a half. Unless something big happens in China, I expect another year of the same.

If short interest is 25%, it must be dominated by institutional investors. I expect they need to carry bets both ways. They don't need to do that for GM or Ford because the valuation is largely determined by P/E ratio.

Rivercard, you are correct that the CIT's are included in finished goods inventory. My calculation was for the change in the number of "lot" inventory. Sorry for any confusion.

Looking just at S&X, there were 28320 delivered and 22140 produced. A difference of 6180. The number of S&X in transit decreased by 2300. Therefore, S&X inventory was reduced by 3880. It was also reduced by 2174 in Q3.

Although the reasons may not be obvious, there must be a tremendous advantage in making most deliveries in the last month of the quarter. Otherwise, they would not keep doing it. In fact, the commitment seems stronger this year than ever before.

luvb2b, thanks much for sharing this analysis! It looks like the biggest factor is the reduction in average sales price for MS/MX. Customer orders appear to be even more heavily weighted to 75kWh this quarter. And with an increased focus on inventory reduction, we could see the average price...

The differences are only slight. Primarily lighting details and air bags.

Note that ZEV credits are not subtracted out of non-GAAP earnings. ZEV is subtracted out for the calculation of non-GAAP gross margin, but not earnings. The only item subtracted out in last quarter's non-GAAP earnings was stock-based compensation expense. It amounted to $116M, or 71 cents/share.

The street estimates on Yahoo Finance are non-GAAP. Yours are GAAP, right? Last quarter, there was a $0.70 difference between the two which means that your estimate is right in line.

It looks like no Teslas were registered in Hong Kong in August. The HK Transport Department did not even include Tesla in it's spreadsheet. There were 14 EV's registered. 12 of them were Renaults, 2 Nissans.

If this welding station is operating at 1/10th speed, we're still talking about 500 units per week. That means the bottleneck is somewhere else in the line.

Put me down for 3750.

There were 7087 Teslas registered in Europe in Q3. And according to InsideEVs, there were 14780 MS and MX sold in the US. Canada probably adds about 700 more. That leaves about 3350 for Asia, about 1450 less than Q2. Does that sound right, or is InsideEVs estimating too high for the US?

It looks like our bell curve is centered on the correct answer! Wisdom of the crowd.

I think that Jose Pontes does an excellent job with the data he is able to collect. But like you, I'm not going to bet the farm on his China estimates. I've gotten to the point where I only trust the China Revenue numbers included in the quarterly reports. From there you can estimate an...

It's frustrating that there's so little information available from Tesla's second largest market. At least we get monthly updates from Hong Kong, although they've pretty much killed the EV market. In July, there were only 3 EV's sold. Two of them Teslas.

SBenson, I think you hit the nail on the head. With a few hundred release candidates out there now, there's sufficient numbers to get meaningful feedback. It makes sense to stop the line now and finish tooling it up for volume production.

At the risk of diverging from the thread topic, yes I do. One would think that it should not be hard to improve on a negative 25% GM. But Services and Other is now dominated by the used car business. For many reasons, it's going to be difficult to make it profitable until the used car the...

I think ValueAnalyst's delivery numbers are going to be very close. Regarding automotive gross margin, I expect it to be down significantly from last quarter's 22.4% due to price reductions, model mix, and Model 3 startup. It could be helped by ZEV credit sales.

You can read the VIN on any car through the windshield. It's not a secret number.

It puzzles me why people want more than 40A charging at home. It would seem that overnight charging at 30 miles per hour is entirely adequate.

And there were thirty 2015 cars registered in August. It surprises me that they still had this many classic nose-cone cars.

Here's how I look at it. As long as the company is losing 1/3 of a billion on revenues of 2 billion, it's going to be very easy for bears to write negative articles. So get used to it. The tide won't turn until there's a full quarter of profitable M3 production, probably Q2 of 2018.

Hong Kong registrations for June show 8 EV's, half of them Teslas. I expect that potential buyers are waiting for tax incentives to be reinstated.

For the 3-day confirmation, I believe they experimented on Canadians first. After they found it safe, they started using it on Americans.

From the 10-Q, Chinese revenues were up 250% from a year ago, but down 8% from last quarter.

The EV-1 had a drag coefficient of 0.19. If GM did it, it could not have been too hard.

Hong Kong registrations for May were just published. Five EV's were registered, none of them Teslas.

I assume they are referring to non-Chinese rivals. Will there be outsiders producing EV's in China ahead of Toyota?

@luvb2b, Thank you for sharing your detailed estimates. I like to do the same sort of thing, but with somewhat less detail. Starting with last quarter's earnings statement, I estimate the changes line by line. While you and I have made slightly different assumptions along the way, our bottom...

It's been getting pretty quiet here. If you can, please take time to update your orders and deliveries on the Order and Delivery spreadsheet. Model S Order & Delivery 2017

Zero registered - I wasn't expecting that! But it's not unlike Denmark where only 7 Teslas have been registered in the first 5 months of this year.

My numbers are the same as Schonelucht. I expect production to be the same as last quarter, but deliveries down due to the Hong Kong effect and sales competition from an increasing number of CVO's.

By far the largest cost to consider is the depreciation cost. You should expect about a 50% depreciation over the first 3 years.