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Disengagement data could come from running FSD in shadow mode and where the human driver does something different from what FSD was predicting = disengagement. Requiring paid user data has never made sense to me and I’ve yet to see evidence it results in anything, spent enough time listening to...

Data are always being collected in shadow mode including running FSD in the background and seeing how the driver’s maneuvers etc deviate from what FSD would have done. FSD purchase/subscription is not required.

Where do dealerships get their parts from? And why are OEM parts such a big deal. The existing fleet is THE profit stream for the big carmakers, and Elon has elaborated on it many times in the past. People can say a lot of things about Elon, heck I say a lot of things about Elon, but he knows...

The big carmakers have historically not made money on new car sales, they sell cars at cost and then make money over the long term by selling parts and service to the existing fleet after vehicles leave warranty -- you can listen to Elon talk about this dynamic on several occasions and how it is...

Forced recalls don’t happen often and require court action when they do. Basically all vehicle recalls are voluntary, even when initiated by NHTSA investigations etc — ie you’ll see NHTSA documentation comes out that talks about their investigation and findings but mentions how the manufacturer...

Hopefully people understand that basically all auto recalls are voluntary as are their solutions, and what the solution entails can be viewed as more indicative of what value the manufacturer is willing to put in. But as an investor of course, cheap and easy is pretty much exactly what you want

All Model S and X trims were dropped by $2k as well

Now imagine what would be required for Tesla to take liability in a generalized Robotaxi lol Mercedes is using an implementation of NVIDIA’s Drive platform.

Yeah I think people are kinda losing the plot when it comes to this stuff, Tesla’s mission hasn’t changed. Optimus is also not really a part of this, Tesla exists to accelerate the energy transition and that is nowhere near complete. For example, I believe the world has never consumed more oil...

This vote going in Elon’s favour likely doesn’t mean the compensation package will proceed either way.

I don’t think it has been unusual to see performance degrade with point releases that expand availability and reduce how overfit the system is to specific areas. Seen this pattern many times, a new release starts out strong when limited to a certain geography and then worsens as the release widens.

I really hope the answer to half those questions isn’t “March of 9s” Especially the question that asks about the March of 9s

People should read into the reporting about the legality of what Tesla is attempting to do with the new shareholder vote. I’d guess this saga is far from over, even if the vote goes in Elon’s favour.

$40/share with the current count would make Tesla’s car and energy businesses worth more than Ford, General Motors, Rivian, and Lucid combined while still leaving enough to buy 574 Fiskers after today’s 40% decline

Very interesting to see this website lol I like how they cite an almost 1,100% valuation increase but leave out the 37% drop since the end of 2023. And half of the $12billion net income cited is the deferred tax asset thing they did in Q4.

That one was all about recruiting the top investors

I don’t think assistance features like that would be mandated, if you draw comparisons to things like seat belts or airbags or traction control. The driver is still responsible with driver assists, mandating them would probably open manufacturers up to liability if something happens and the...

Elon has said events like Autonomy Day and AI Day are more about recruiting top talent, they’re not earnings calls Like here Without mentioning that at the time Tesla was worth <$20 adjusted for splits to today

He probably needs to talk about the March of Margines

I’m really curious how this next earnings call will go with this shift away from the traditional businesses and towards autonomy. FSD has not been a huge topic on previous earnings calls particularly as it pertains to dollars and cents, and now the apparent focus is shifting entirely to this...

Warren Buffett would say the goal is to give your kids enough so that they can do anything but not so much that they do nothing.

Elon has been saying autonomy is the key to Tesla’s value for years now, word for word said it was “the difference between Tesla being worth a lot or basically nothing” and that he believes a new EV company can’t succeed without electrification and autonomy in tandem. That can be a very good...

There is no money to be made, Drew by himself has sold enough TSLA stock to date to buy three Fiskers

The company is worth $31million lol, it’s down 99.55% over two years. When you have something that is so very badly beaten down, it’s much more likely to double than be cut in half again.

Tesla IT probably did a scan and noticed how much time Rohan was spending on Twitter I don’t think the stock is at all reacting negatively to the loss of executives, but who knows Also layoffs reduce COGS assuming no corresponding drop in output

Tough to say how the market is even interpreting the various pieces of news, feels like the moves in treasury yields alone this morning could produce a bigger negative hit than 3-4%

Oil prices increasing could be good for the EV vs ICE dynamic but geopolitical inflation could be not good, energy prices included

That’s not what I’m saying. How are autopilot and the associated passive safety features included by default in the cars? I’m saying Tesla wouldn’t lock things like this, that are supposed to save lives, behind a monthly subscription. I don’t think the leadership team would do that, they’ll...

Nope I just mean the clips recorded upon disengaging, when hitting the camera button, the stuff originally extolled during Autonomy Day 2019 that was supposed to help identify problems for fixing Like Chuck’s ULT where performance was largely unchanged until Tesla put boots on the ground at...

Yup and people had spent years disengaging and submitting reports about specific issues without them being fixed, I imagine the ability to spot fix things is further reduced with the end-to-end training. Data are collected in shadow mode, this type of data collection in vehicles will probably...

What if the take rate doesn’t double and people who were paying $199 are now paying $99 Next up will be 12 month subscriptions locked in at a certain price and then they’ll start playing with it further, end of quarter sales for $69 — pay $828 for a full year! Automatic renewal afterwards at $99

I’ve been trying to think of a company that locks critical public safety features behind a software toggle and monthly subscription but am not having any luck, can you think of something comparable? To be honest I think the public has a stake in all this, because what’s being done with FSD...

The economic benefits of actual robotaxis could be split off from things that just improve public safety, it’s not binary.

I don’t know how it would unfold, but I wouldn’t count on that angle being a big profit centre. Have you heard Elon talk about an accident in 2018 with Barrett Riley and how it spurred him to improve safety? The company won’t care about profiteering, they’ll care about saving lives — that I...

Things that significantly improve public safety really shouldn’t be locked behind a subscription pay gate especially when all cars have the hardware and it’s merely a software toggle. If FSD prevents accidents at high speed, can detect pedestrians and avoid hitting them, etc then doesn’t it...

That seems unfortunate for the energy transition goals, we need all automakers selling as many EVs as possible and succeeding as much as possible

How low can Rivian and Lucid go? Absolutely brutal value destruction

Tesla has been sneaking Robert Frost into the training data

All cars should be suffering in this environment, but Porsche’s prices are actually up YoY according to Cox and are up an incredible amount from say 2020. Porsche’s ATPs were around $96k in 2020, they’re $116k today. Mercedes is up hugely too, BMW is up only a bit which is interesting...

Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg sang about it as well in the early ‘90s classic Nuthin’ but a GDP Thang

Canada will likely come down sooner and more drastically too, US is in a bit of a particularly unique situation with fiscal policy battling monetary policy and myriad other factors like 30 year mortgage rates and this and that

80 minutes is a big commitment but will try to listen to the whole thing I just know a certain group of people have been desperately hoping rates will come down for some time, we were supposed to have a recession and outright deflation like two years ago if I recall correctly. The hope of rate...

When interest rates come down to what? The neutral rate now is probably mid 3% or even above 4%, Powell has already said he doesn’t expect rates to come back down to where they are pre-COVID and they were 2.25-2.5% at that time. Fed Funds rate coming down also don’t mean the long end of the...

Banned unless authorized by the province. We’ll probably see more of this in the states and provinces where regulations currently don’t exist because SAE Level 3-5 autonomous vehicles aren’t a thing yet. It’s not an outright ban, it’s establishing a framework wherein autonomous vehicles need...

-Build in as few batteries as possible to get acceptable range and top performance -Provide optimistic EPA numbers to that end -Equals lower internal cost per vehicle, higher capacity to produce more vehicles with the same number of batteries -Charge maximum price -???? -Profit This is the...

Tesla has had similar job postings for years

I was sure they would fight this one to the bitter end

Back in 2021, the bear case for next year was 5million sales and the bull case was 10million Their bull case for three years from now is north of 20million sales

These Robotaxi models are all grossly conservative, ARK’s bull case is $613billion in net revenue from autonomous ride hailing within three years

I don't know if the vehicle can have a significantly different form factor from the 3/Y without requiring new training data, and that will take time to build out if it's significantly different. Hopefully some clarity is provided on the earnings call but also wouldn't be shocked if details are...