The moat from manufacturing comes from Tesla building the machine that builds the machine. There are many manufacturing techniques that require Tesla to build the machines themselves as such ones doesn't exist. As of Today, no EV car builders has a positive net margin on EVs using western workers. In fact all of them couldn't even hit a positive gross margin.That's my take as well. There's so many companies building cheap ice cars, I don't see any of them setting valuation records. In the long run, my understanding of automotive manufacturing says that there's no moat that you can hold and everyone ends up on the same margins. Which is proven right now. Not to mention that there's some dealer margins hidden in Tesla's figures since they sell direct.
Tesla's valuation has always been dependent on the capability to deliver autonomous driving with a relatively cheap sensor stack. Focusing on that is good, although I must admit i don't see the reasons to not do both. It's not like they don't have the money right now. I'm also concerned on the development outoput of the company. The past 3 years, although marking excellent profits haven't shown new products at the rate at which you'd expect from even a normal car company.
But yes, if every car company goes to the same OEM and use the same machines to build cars, then yes margins are more or less determined more by their desirability/demand than COGS.