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  1. abasile

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That link doesn't work. Where did you find that statement? That said, I do agree that Tesla is likely to become extremely valuable, beyond $500B, if FSD works out as well as hoped for.
  2. abasile

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I agree about the Model Y and the Semi, but I was a little taken aback by Elon making the following statement in the Q1 earnings call: Back in 2016 or so, I clearly remember Elon making the claim that the Solar Roof would last the lifetime of the house. That's a significantly better value...
  3. abasile

    Powerwall 2: SGIP/Incentives

    Same here. It does bother me that Tesla/SolarCity salespeople were telling us that we would most likely get the SGIP rebate, in Step 3. I do have to credit SGIP for getting us to consider Powerwalls in the first place. They're worth having even without the rebate.
  4. abasile

    Powerwall 2: SGIP/Incentives

    Looks like no SGIP rebate on our Powerwalls, since it's been over 12 months since our PTO in April 2018. Oh well. I knew it was a bit of a gamble, though I wish Tesla had been more transparent about the status of their SGIP queue. On the plus side, we got our Powerwalls installed before Tesla...
  5. abasile

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    To help Elon and Tesla, perhaps Jack Dorsey could push for a "Twitter sitter" feature, whereby the user could tweet at will but none of his/her tweets would actually show up until they've been approved by someone they designate. Integrating this directly into the app and website would be ideal...
  6. abasile

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In other words, not much more than the combined market caps of Lyft (LYFT) and Shopify (SHOP), currently $15B and $22B, respectively. Crazy! If you had $40B, what would you rather own for the long term, Lyft and Shopify, or Tesla? Considered this way, I wonder if perhaps I should cash out of a...
  7. abasile

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The NVIDIA Drive PX Pegasus reportedly does 320 TOPS, with TDP at 500 watts.
  8. abasile

    What other tech stock to consider?

    Several days ago, with NIO back in the ~$5.30 range, I couldn't resist, and rebought the modest position that I had sold in early March. While I couldn't justify holding at ~$10 after a quick run-up, particularly with them outsourcing manufacturing, the current price is more attractive. It is...
  9. abasile

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    It seemed odd to me that only 79% of EV drivers would say that EVs are the future of driving, so I looked at the full results of the poll and found the following: I strongly suspect that this figure is skewed downward by the inclusion of hybrid drivers in the survey. If only 79% of Tesla owners...
  10. abasile

    Tesla Semi

    From watching the Nikola World keynote (admittedly in the background at times, as 1.5 hours is a long time on YouTube), I was surprised to learn that Nikola will be offering semi truck battery packs as large as 1 MWh! Going the H2 route will attract attention and perhaps investors, but I suspect...
  11. abasile

    Which one to buy RWD or AWD

    We have AWD on our Model 3, but only because we live high in the mountains and get snow in winter. If I lived in Houston and didn't care about driving to the mountains in the winter, then I'd definitely choose RWD for the extra range, better energy efficiency, and lower price.
  12. abasile

    Would you join the Elon's Robo-Taxi Fleet with your Tesla?

    If FSD is good enough, and if Tesla does a great job of shielding us from liability claims and they take responsibility for sorting out any damage, then we'd probably do it.
  13. abasile

    SR Not Plus Waiting Room

    With any hardware/software company, it's a given that older versions of the hardware will not be prioritized when rolling out software improvements. I'm pretty happy that our 2012 Model S is now a better car, because of software updates, than when it was new. But it's clear that older cars...
  14. abasile

    SR Not Plus Waiting Room

    I think it's also fair to assume that AP will continue to improve with time, particularly on vehicles with Tesla's new FSD chip. AP is really just a subset of the FSD functionality, so it should benefit from Tesla's continued work on FSD. Even so, while it isn't perfect, today's AP is pretty...
  15. abasile

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Absolutely true. The $35k (or $39.5k) Model 3 with incentives is quite competitive relative to brand new ICE sedans, but that's only a fraction of the market. In our particular community, most people buying new vehicles want AWD (Subaru is quite popular here). That may not be true in most of...
  16. abasile

    Running Solar with one Powerwall 2: Individual Backup Battery Issue/Question

    This has been discussed elsewhere, but part of the problem is that some "non compliant" solar inverters won't shut down until the frequency gets close to 66 Hz, so the Powerwall is outputting at that high frequency to be on the safe side, to be absolutely sure that the solar isn't back feeding...
  17. abasile

    SR Not Plus Waiting Room

    Yes, that seems likely. At the same time, the SR+ offers significantly more features/functionality than we expected of the base model, $35k in 2016 dollars is equivalent to over $37k today, and there is actually a $35k car for anyone who is determined to get it, so Tesla truly is honoring their...
  18. abasile

    Ticketing for no front plate in Santa Monica and stick-on front plate option

    Answered my own question. I checked with them via email and their response is that they do handle the DMV paperwork. So I've ordered a front "plate" for our Model 3.
  19. abasile

    Ticketing for no front plate in Santa Monica and stick-on front plate option

    If you buy the $50 "plate", does licenseplatewrap.com do the DMV paperwork for you?
  20. abasile

    Model 3 - The Amazing, the not-so-amazing and the ugly!

    Wow, I love your photo! The blues and the whites complement and contrast so nicely. Gorgeous car and beautiful mountain!! This has been my number one complaint. A little sweat on the hands makes it worse. One workaround is to quickly scroll up/down on the right scroll wheel on the steering...
  21. abasile

    94 Miles on Gravity!

    On a very gentle downslope, I would expect neutral to be slightly more efficient since the motor power can be more precisely zeroed out. This is not exactly applicable to descending mountains, though! We frequently do a 4900' descent from our mountain town. It's common to regen back ~15 miles...
  22. abasile

    Firmware 1.34.3 issues

    I agree that the charge/discharge behavior within the Part-Peak rate period has been odd. We're using Balanced mode and our Powerwalls have been at relatively high states of charge (80-100%) the last couple of days. Yesterday morning until 9:40 AM, our Powerwalls charged from all solar, and...
  23. abasile

    Powerwall feature request: Expert Mode

    I agree. As long as the applicable reserve is maintained, I'm not particularly concerned with how quickly the Powerwall discharges. For EV charging, I'd like it to be easier to avoid using the grid, but this would require integration between the Powerwall system and Tesla's vehicle products...
  24. abasile

    Powerwall feature request: Expert Mode

    Is that to prevent the Powerwall from getting drained quickly if you do something like charge an EV during peak hours?
  25. abasile

    Is this what Storm Watch looks like for everyone?

    Glad it activated for you! This reminds me, it would be nice if the Storm Watch feature gave us some "advanced" options: Activation options: 1. Always prepared. Activate for any significant weather event. 2. Severe only. Activate for only the most severe weather events. Charging options: 1...
  26. abasile

    Firmware 1.34.3 issues

    I've never seen a delay as long as a whole day, normally no more than half an hour or so, but Tesla might be telling you this in an attempt to manage expectations. Rather than changing the UI, though, we'd obviously prefer that they eliminate the delay! I can use the app to control our Tesla...
  27. abasile

    Powerwall feature request: Expert Mode

    The Powerwall is a great product and I have high hopes for the future of battery storage at personal residences. Powerwalls can increase our consumption of solar energy, minimize our use of expensive peak power, and provide valuable backup services. For most people, the existing Backup-only...
  28. abasile

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    It's hard to say. In North America, we're primarily depending on organic demand growth. Among those purchasing new cars today, I suspect that the largest stumbling block keeping many from buying a Model 3 is no longer price, it's that they're not sure if they're ready to make the jump to an...
  29. abasile

    POLL: perhaps Tesla should do this to improve efficiency and generate cash, in the short term

    Ideally, it would be great if Tesla could reasonably do another capital raise, and use the additional capital to accelerate several efforts. In your poll, I chose Model Y, Powerwall, service, and full self driving as top priorities. In addition, I'd like to see the Model S and X offered with...
  30. abasile

    Setting schedule for mid-day off-peak

    The problem, of course, is that if your evening usage is low and you don't hit your reserve before midnight, then you're using the Powerwall to charge your EVs instead of saving that energy for the following 6 AM - 10 AM peak period. Also, you might in the future feel comfortable reducing the...
  31. abasile

    Might be returning AWD 3 (advice request)

    Wow, that's downright tropical! Yes, in her case, I can see what you mean. Does she like to heat the house like a sauna as well? I would be sweating like crazy. I agree that such people will either have to live with reduced range in the winter or stick to ICE for now. This goes to show that...
  32. abasile

    Might be returning AWD 3 (advice request)

    People who get cold easily can use Teslas just as well as anyone else. The driver can run the cabin heater at a "normal" level like 65-70F just so the air feels pleasant, but the key is to crank up the seat heaters as needed to maintain core body temperature. At their maximum setting, the seat...
  33. abasile

    What is the current lead time for Power Wall installation?

    So, I just got off the phone with Tesla, as detailed at #43. They're shooting for having a fix, in the next firmware release, for the frequency issue that for some customers is making it impossible to charge from solar during outages. If you were to place a Powerwall reservation now, there...
  34. abasile

    Powerwall/Solar Edge behavior in power outage

    I called Tesla Energy yesterday to follow up, and "Gary" just called me back. Tesla says that they hope to fix the "high frequency" issue in the next firmware release, though they can't say exactly when that will be. Beside the issue of charging from solar during outages, Gary expressed the...
  35. abasile

    Home charging two cars, stupid or cool?

    For many of us, a dirty car is a car that's being used - it's no garage queen. Our family's Teslas get driven in all conditions, including dirt roads a couple of days ago to see some wonderful desert wildflowers. I like the simplicity of your setup and can appreciate your efforts to keep...
  36. abasile

    What is the current lead time for Power Wall installation?

    At one point, a Tesla rep told me that our Powerwalls weren't charging from solar during outages because of the low ambient temperature (around 10C/50F in that instance). That would be an absolutely unacceptable limitation in cooler climates! The firmware should be able to do much, much better...
  37. abasile

    Tesla Superchargers are overwhelmed with Model 3s

    California has the same issues as any place with high concentrations of people. But it's also a big state with wide open spaces and amazing beauty. This Spring in particular, the desert wildflowers are a real treat. Yesterday evening, we Supercharged in Cabazon, CA, a key stopping point along...
  38. abasile

    Might be returning AWD 3 (advice request)

    Even in winter, he shouldn't have any range issues at that speed if he's willing to make the necessary Supercharger stops. Personally, I'd rather spend a bit more time Supercharging than have to stay in the rightmost lane and constantly get passed.
  39. abasile

    Might be returning AWD 3 (advice request)

    Over the last six months that we have had the Model 3, we have always felt comfortable in the cold. Perhaps this is partly because we are in the habit of using the seat heaters, and they are particularly powerful, significantly warmer than the seat heaters in our 2012 Model S. You report that...
  40. abasile

    Might be returning AWD 3 (advice request)

    Sorry, I agree that I-95 would make no sense; I saw "Charleston" and was thinking South Carolina even though you clearly indicated West Virginia. My bad. Given the elevation changes, starting from 295 miles of rated range, the heater use, and the 19" wheels, I'm not surprised at your father's...
  41. abasile

    What is the current lead time for Power Wall installation?

    No, they haven't, and I've been trying to get them to do something to resolve it since late last autumn. At least I made progress by getting them to agree to send a technician to my house last week to witness the problem firsthand. The technician encouraged me to wait about a week and then try...
  42. abasile

    Advice on a long drive..

    Yes, "real" winter tires are ideal for driving on snow and ice, but for many of us, it makes more sense to just use all-season tires year round. Even in winter, the vast majority of our Model 3 miles are driven on Southern California freeways and highways that are completely free of anything...
  43. abasile

    Might be returning AWD 3 (advice request)

    200 miles of actual range sounds quite low for an AWD Model 3, and 40s-50s temperatures are pretty mild. We routinely do much better than that on our AWD 3 (with 18" aeros). Was that "180-200 miles of actual range" starting from a full charge? Were there unusually strong winds or was it raining...
  44. abasile

    What is the current lead time for Power Wall installation?

    My Powerwalls were at about 55% during the most recent off-grid test, conducted by a Tesla technician, when they failed to lower the frequency to 60 Hz to support charging from solar.
  45. abasile

    What is the current lead time for Power Wall installation?

    The OP did say that being able to charge from solar during outages is very important, though this has nothing to do with lead times.
  46. abasile

    SR+ Delivery with Scratch | Tesla would not fix | Poll Q

    For $20k net, the Bolt is not a bad buy. No Supercharger access and no Autopilot feature would be dealbreakers for us, but for someone on a budget who doesn't need those things, the Bolt is a practical if boring hatchback with decent range. The issue with GM is that they don't have a truly...
  47. abasile

    What is the current lead time for Power Wall installation?

    @bmah what was the ambient temperature during your outage simulation? There’s been discussion elsewhere that failure to charge from solar during outages may be a bug that is temperature related. It was about 40F during the test conducted at my house by the Tesla technician.
  48. abasile

    SR+ Delivery with Scratch | Tesla would not fix | Poll Q

    Our Model 3 had a cosmetic defect in the windshield, which the delivery/service folks offered to fix if we were willing to wait a week or two longer to take delivery. We opted to take delivery right away, and they promised to replace the windshield at a later date, at our convenience. I never...
  49. abasile

    What is the current lead time for Power Wall installation?

    I have SunPower 360W "AC" panels with SunPower-branded micro-inverters. That being said, I'm pretty sure the inverter model is not the issue. During a simulated outage (flipped the main breaker) with a Tesla technician present, the Powerwalls were producing power with a frequency of 63 Hz. Had...
  50. abasile

    SR+ Delivery with Scratch | Tesla would not fix | Poll Q

    Would they have been willing to sell you a different SR+ if you had been able to wait? Either way, it shouldn't be your problem that they had to spend hours buffing the paint damage. Perhaps a root issue is that not all employees can gracefully handle being pushed hard at the end of every...