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It's not a matter of other companies sitting still, no one believes that. When a bear takes after two people, neither of them sits still, but the slower one still loses. Anyone who expects Ford or GM to move quickly enough to keep up to Tesla is probably living in an alternate reality. Tesla is...

Not all Mach-e trim levels will profitable? And that's straight from Ford's CCO's mouth. Interestingly, that statement would also be 100% true if *none* of the Mach-e trims were profitable, no?

I'm very bullish on Tesla long-term but I think people need to be aware that in the short term, anything can happen with regards to the share price and that is true even if Tesla continues to perform at a high level. This is why I always take a long-term view when the stock market and large...

You've never heard of "bad gas"? Fortunately, much reduced these days due to E10 and newer underground tanks mandated by the EPA and better filtering and water separators. But it can still happen. Gas that doesn't meet the octane rating can total the engine while gas with too much water in it is...

Like I said, I'm far from a fan of options but, over the last 25 years, I'm hundreds of thousands of dollars up on options and will never go negative, because I only make relatively small bets, and only when I judge the odds are strongly in my favor. There are plenty of people who win with...

I find the high p/e valuations for an auto only business to be unrealistic. I think by stating the model used is at the high end of the range used is pretty much the same thing as saying autonomy revenues will never be very dramatic compared to auto revenues. I think it would be more realistic...

Those who know me know I'm not a big fan of options. But it should probably be said that options are not just one thing, they can be used in many ways, including reducing exposure to risk. But it needs to be said, that will come at a high cost. While you can reduce the risk of big losses, you...

I *LOVE* back of the napkin, rough estimates, without getting stuck in the weeds with thousands of details. Mostly to give me a feel for where things might be going. But, to view things like that it is necessary to take off the blinders. In other words, the glaring fault here is that you are...

This is true but there is a reason I became a lot less optimistic about the timeline for full autonomy sometime around the middle of last year. Basically, it's due to the flattening of the improvement curve, a curve that was previously steepening. Trends matter. Previously, the improvement curve...

Elon Musk has made so many big mistakes. First he bet on a kind of car that no one wanted, ones powered by batteries. Ha ha. Then he decided to bet against dealer networks by running his own delivery/service centers. Just dumb. Then he chose to put into production a big, high-end luxury car...

Elon Musk has made so many big mistakes. First he bet on a kind of car that no one wanted, ones powered by batteries. Ha ha. Then he decided to bet against dealer networks by running his own delivery/service centers. Just dumb. Then he chose to put into production a big, high-end luxury car...

That's the coolest thing about EV's, they can run on whatever is available at the moment, coal, natural gas, nuclear, hydro, geo-thermal, wind, solar, or a mix of whatever you have available. In a pinch it can even run on propane, gas or diesel. Show me a non-EV that can do all that and I'll...

Corrections after big, fast moves are a given. Why would that make you nervous?

What's really sad is that Tesla had to actually do the price cut for analysts to realize this. Anyone with half a brain could have looked at Q3 financials and seen how much pricing power Tesla had. It's not a good look to the TSLA analyst community that so many professional analysts couldn't...

What's the name of the boat? 'Cause I want to make sure I never get in it. ;)

Yes, the historical use of the phrase "demand problem" is that it's a problem. For example, if it costs $10 to make an item in high volumes but you can only sell those volumes if you lower the price to $8, then that's a demand problem. Maybe they could fix their demand problem by advertising the...

I think you're right, maybe not under $22K yet, but more affordable than the current Model 3. I've been carefully listening to management whenever they talk about the new product pipeline and the sense I get is a smaller car is not quite in the cards yet. It actually seems more like something...

There was no change yesterday to guidance for the Cybertruck other than it's still on the same schedule. Management knows when the schedule has changed because that requires telling all their suppliers the schedule has changed. Obviously, they didn't do that because that would require they told...

If you listen to the flavor of the call, and various details scattered through the call, it looks to me like Tesla might be using 2023, a period that Elon seems convinced will be in recession, to temporarily move the focus from growing auto manufacturing volumes at all costs, to focusing on...

Because those are the people who first pushed the idea many years ago and continue to cling to it. Rob covers the news and needs to address things his viewers and patrons are worried about. And with how much coverage Tesla's "demand problems" have received, it would be really odd for him to not...

That you even consider it a possibility that Tesla would enter the small-scale wind market makes me realize how little you understand how Tesla makes business decisions. There is zero chance Tesla would ever enter the market that is small scale wind and the chances of them going into large wind...

Yes. Putting 2 and 2 and 2 together, I think it's looking like a relatively low cost utility van meant to serve multiple purposes including: commercial delivery tradesmen passenger van utility/camping/sports Tesla likes to leverage multiple vehicles out of each platform so it will probably be...

I have never had a problem with Troy's end of the quarter estimates, it's generally his early quarter predictions that don't align with things we already know. Then, as the quarter proceeds, he generally hones his numbers in to end up close to reality. It's his methodology and early quarter...

Absolutely. And anyone who listened to today's call, and ALL previous calls, will know that Tesla management doesn't see any demand problems. They re-iterated that demand is strong looking forward as far as they can see. And they have much better visibility into demand than any investor or...

That's because there is a delayed benefit to ASP's when raising prices due to order backlog (those orders have to work their way through the system before the higher prices can add to the ASP's). But I don't measure Tesla's level of success by how high the ASP's are, the lower the better, as...

Potential price drops after purchase of a new car are the same dynamic facing an investor whenever they buy shares in any company. I deal with it the same way; look at what you're buying, what the price is, and whether the value the value is there or not. Whether shares in a company or a new...

I see it a little differently. Demand for battery storage will be virtually unlimited for years to come, at least until a newer and more viable technology can displace it. And that takes time. The biggest challenge is merely accepting that the vision is correct, as evidenced by Panasonic's...

It's important that individuals tackle challenges that are commensurate with their level of vision and foresight. So, I'm glad that appropriate people are finally tackling the most vexing challenge inherent in the transition to sustainable energy. Specifically, someone had to solve the problem...

Quote from the article: Oh, that Elon is such a big bad bully! First, he taunts car buyers by making a whole bunch of really nice cars that they can't even hope to buy, then he bullies his competitors by lowering the prices so customers can actually afford them, so the cars don't just sit...

I don't understand your question, whether or not anyone has started looking at the 20 million cars by 2030 from a numbers perspective. That's the ONLY way I have ever looked at that goal, from a numbers perspective. And I think it a realistic and achievable goal. Whether Tesla achieves it or not...

Refineries use a mix of grid electricity and their own fossil products to power the refining processes. The claim is not entirely accurate because it includes the oil used in the process as kWh of electricity. However, I think the overall gist of the claim is generally true, even if it's...

The StockGPT usage instructions are to reference the quarter and year that your question is applicable to, in your question, so StockGPT knows which transcript to search. But, yeah, it's not nearly as sophisticated as ChatGPT.

You published that book 20 years ago, so I take it you are a billionaire by now? Because I have to imagine that you didn't write the book until you had honed the craft of technical analysis, so I imagine you have been putting that knowledge to good use over the last 30 years or more. Or are you...

I wouldn't say Supercruise driver monitoring hardware is "much better then Tesla's". Nor is it more effective. This is the result of people trying to find any fault with Tesla that they can leverage in an attempt to make them look unsafe. Car and driver found the Supercruise driver monitoring...

At about the 3-minute mark, while showing video of Elon talking at battery day, he appears to claim Elon anticipated 65% margins for Megapacks. I don't recall that but am open to someone refreshing my memory (without going back and listening to the battery day presentation again). I'm sure...

In my experience, common ground could always be found if one were willing to abandon or ignore enough important principles. But I don't believe the act of "finding common ground" is more important than the most important and fundamental principles at issue here and neither did the founding...

I don't see how the people who think synthetic shorting is some wacky conspiracy theory can live with blinders on in the face of mountains of real evidence of Wall Street fraud. I liked the analogy the former CEO in the video used, if you bought one car and then made 100 duplicate titles for...

Very well put! I've been appalled at all the noise and negativity directed at Elon for simply doing what any free man has a right to do and the way many Tesla bulls were so gullible to it. Just like some people want to complain that he lowered the price of cars after they bought, others want to...

That's just so when it goes up to $150-$160 he can have enough credibility to say "Tesla looks over-bought now" and people will believe him. It's all about manipulating public perceptions and nothing about the actual positioning of the company.

Well, we get it half right anyway. We all have access to the stock price, what is there to talk about? Joe: Look, the stock is up $5 Bob: By golly, you're right! Joe: What do you think made it go up? Bob: I suspect it was more buyers than sellers. Joe: I suppose you're right. Bob: It sure is...

I'm guessing Sandy is looking at it that way because Tesla is growing sales at over 50% annually, so each additional sale of FSD is pure profit. He would look at it differently if a company had steady-state sales or, as legacy auto has been experiencing, declining sales. Your point about...

I was shocked at the small capacity of the battery too. I'm thinking they put a full contact cooling plate between each cell to minimize heat issues but that's not going to reduce the number of charge/discharge cycles that battery will go through if people use full acceleration regularly. I'll...

I would make a rough guess of around 10% slower than the 6000 ton machine. Of course it would vary depending upon the mass and thickness of the casting too. It's also possible the latest generation of casting machines has improved thermal controls that could reduce cycle times below what one...

Color me skeptical. ZeroSumGame is making all the same noises I would expect to hear from someone up to their eyeballs in bullish TSLA options nearing expiration. I don't know this, just sayin'...

It sounds like Chanos is pretending to take a victory lap even though TSLA is nearly 10X what it was when he was trumpeting their impending bankruptcy most loudly. Deep down inside he knows TSLA is not one of his finer moments.

Another excellent post. People who missed your previous post, perhaps because it was posted on the day before Christmas, should go back and read it carefully. This is the kind of thing successful investors think about, not about how the share price will be temporarily impacted by the CEO selling...

Another excellent post. People who missed your previous post, perhaps because it was posted on the day before Christmas, should go back and read it carefully. This is the kind of thing successful investors think about, not about how the share price will be temporarily impacted by the CEO selling...

WOW! If I were an F-150 Lightning, after peeping through that window, I would wonder why my mother didn't look that hot!!

You made very important points there that I agree with. Listening to influencers in the Tesla community is definitely not a critical ingredient for success. And I like the emphasis on using your own thinking. To that I would add, you need to make sure your thinking is correct. And the best way...

GM is taking hostages to increase the chances they get bailed out again. The hostages are going to be the 30 new EV models (announced for 2025!) they will have on the drawing board when bankruptcy is knocking on their door. They will tell us we don't get all their wonderful EV's unless we pay...