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  1. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Agreed, but that didn't stop some guy at work asking when I thought I'd be able to get my 3, and if I thought there was any risk Tesla would fold before getting my car produced... Then he brought up the Bolt as an option to replace it. (yeah, he apparently read some of the WSJ crap lately)...
  2. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Don't forget, 6GWh is "large-scale".
  3. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Some dark pool buying just now, that's what some of that volume spike was. Also probably ran the stops on some intraday shorts...
  4. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Not really. Yesterday's rise frankly had no "tell" ahead of it. Just... happened. That's how it usually works - if it was predictable, I'd be driving a Tesla Roadster instead of a Z4. :cool:
  5. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    That 44,258 share trade earlier (13:07 eastern) was dark pool sourced, buying on liquidity. (if it wasn't obvious by the crazy price spike)
  6. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Sell spikes on TSLA in the last ~30 minutes are not dark pool or algo related. Probably just some deep pocketed short.
  7. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    I'm feeling particularly smug over their predicament, since I had a lot of short term options loaded for a breakout back in May after the Q1 ER, before MS issued a downgrade on a Monday morning, absolutely crushing my position. Considering what happened a couple weeks later, I'm almost certain...
  8. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Another way of doing that order may be "fill or kill", particularly once they see the liquidity there. Makes sure no one has a chance to react to it before it's filled, else kill it w/o displaying. For more info on order types ("dark" order types shown on pages 4 & 5; full list pg 14-28) -...
  9. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Topped (or at least tied) that today.
  10. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Ihor Dusaniwsky‏ @ihors3 $TSLA short interest $9.8 billion,shorts up $397 million in mark-to-market profits today on 3.9% price drop on Semi Truck Delay. @S3Partners
  11. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Probably because they wanted to, and they could. Large firms can see the full orderbook, meaning they can see clear as day if there's enough liquidity to buy a ton without moving the price. Somewhat, maybe. Means it's likely institutional, or large-ish trading firm or similar. Slightly...
  12. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    54,015 share block buy, accumulators say dark pool.
  13. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Both. Sloth flew across the road, but was still a sloth on the other side.
  14. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Tuesday you mean? Not really. Shows up to me as tons of selling. Over the rest of the day, algos were big buyers, dark pools net sellers. Not much insight from accumulators that day. Price was a better tell. (gapping down, but closing green with an engulfing candle)
  15. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Sold most of my calls that expire today already, holding 2 360c as lottos if this current triangle resolves to the upside. Whoever is buying, is still at it, and probably really enjoying the huge selling spikes they're just sitting there and absorbing. Also have some Oct (20th) 370c that I...
  16. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Very long (for Tesla) return on investment. Ties up way too much cash. That's why they've been selling off the SolarCity leases, to get cash now. Cash now builds gigafactories. Cash over the next 10 years, not so much.
  17. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Ahhh, whoops, WSJ I was thinking. I somehow constantly mix those two up.
  18. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Why Musk is pitching solar panels to Puerto Rico even as residents struggle to get clean water I thought WaPo was anti-Tesla, anti-renewables?
  19. Z

    Factory running at full capacity 24x7 (looking at the parking lot)

    I seem to recall they added a 3rd shift 3-6 months ago.
  20. Z

    TSLA Technical Analysis

    Aaaaand you jinxed it. -$6 tomorrow. :eek:
  21. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Just because it's not going up doesn't mean there's capping/manipulation involved. Today had very clear footprints of large institution accumulation. They're trying to buy as many shares as they can while pushing the price up as little as possible. $356 is a pre-existing support/resistance...
  22. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Downgrade that hit earlier kinda killed buying enthusiasm. That, and nasdaq peaked, then proceeded to head back south to morning levels. I'm out of my weekly calls, but holding monthly+ still. As for vin 1135... welcome to off-by-one bugs.
  23. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    TSLA Full GS report from this morning. Appears someone may have caught wind of the Nomura upgrade a bit early. Finished rolling most of my J19's down to various J18 strikes upon seeing that. Have a few random weekly and monthly (Friday & Oct 20) calls too from around noon, but nothing...
  24. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    I can provide a (small) Project TIM update - it appears there's still town hall meetings occurring, most recently a week or two ago. Someone said it was US Steel, but being a stock I day trade from time to time, I know I would've heard about that if it was the case...
  25. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Hey wait a second, I thought Model X was a colossal failure, and still was even just a few months ago? (based on many "wise" comments posted all over the intertubes suggesting that it should be canceled... still, even now, so that they can "focus on Model 3")
  26. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Thin, meaning not a ton of nearby liquidity for aggressive buyers to snap up. Price moves until there's liquidity to satisfy the aggressing party, so price can really move upwards fast if there's not "enough" sellers left "nearby". Not overly interesting actually. Didn't realize how much...
  27. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Thin trading (still). That pop coincided with nasdaq pop, though this one seems kinda sticky. QQQ has since fallen back to pre-pop levels while TSLA keeps going...
  28. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Um... Oct 6 305c & 310c. That's $3.67M in 305c, and $2.32M in 310c bought in the last hour or so. (checked charts)
  29. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    ITAR regulations aren't gonna let that happen anytime soon due to the fact it's still really no different than a huge ICBM. I'd be willing to bet they'll allow launches from inside the US mainland (i.e. not 100% over water) before that. Now, private in the sense that they'll always keep one...
  30. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Meh, I'll take that trade off if I can get a window seat.
  31. Z

    Third quarter deliveries 2017

    I wonder, does anyone know if a similar thing happened ahead of AP2 last year, or the Model S nose change/facelift?
  32. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Prepare for shorts piling back in then - we all know delay = bad numbers. If numbers are really good, I'd love to see them wait until Tuesday morning. Let all the FUD stories start circulating, then wham. Yeah, I rolled a couple J19's to Nov 360c late yesterday when it bounced just a bit...
  33. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    I'm thinking 347.50-350. R1 is 343.74, R2 is 346.97. Currently trying to break through R1, and if that happens, reaching R2 is not unlikely.
  34. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Forgetting the capacity of the booster I think. But you're very correct on pricing for LOX though. Shorts appear to be covering today. First day in awhile that dark pools are net buyers. Notice the volume spike around 10am that brought us back up to 342? Happened same exact time as Nasdaq...
  35. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Looks like some dark pool covering starting about 1-2 hours ago. Probably don't want a surprise tomorrow morning.
  36. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

    Wrong year. Also, not to be pedantic, but case does matter - mWh is about 9 orders of magnitude smaller than a MWh.
  37. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    I should probably listen to myself more, could've avoided a fair bit of pain by selling my trading LEAPs last week... :rolleyes:
  38. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Frankly, I don't see much manipulation today. Dark pools net sold another 100k shares roughly, which could be end of quarter window dressing (TSLA is basically flat on the quarter)/rotation/etc. No overt selling spikes unlike last week. Just (almost) no buyers. My speculation today vs Nasdaq...
  39. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    TSLA has been a total non-responder since the spike an hour ago. Felt like a bull flag, but now starting to break down below daily pivot and intraday vwap. What's interesting is it appears algos are just moping up shares sold by dark pools. Combined, net buy/sell is flat for past hour. I...
  40. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    My somebody-knows-something sense is tingling.
  41. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Oh hai, volume, almost forgot you existed... Algo buy spike. 10k shares so far, dark pools starting to follow now.
  42. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Dat last minute volume.
  43. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    $TSLA shifting from $NVDA to $INTC for infotainment components, Bloomberg says Tesla shifting from Nvidia to Intel for infotainment components, Bloomberg says NVDA;INTC;TSLA - The Fly No bloomberg link yet that I see. INTC getting nice pop on news, NVDA whacked a few bucks.
  44. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    TSLA OPENING SWEEP DETECTED: >> 313 TSLA Oct 6th 340 Calls $12.759 $400k bet. Open interest on that strike is 48, volume today is 554, so there's at least a half million likely added to that strike today.
  45. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Yep, very thin trading. This indicates to me the primary volume of buying is based on the index - and probably mostly algo driven at that. However, TSLA's fragility is making it susceptible to greater falls from large traders and algos playing things like pivot and vwap break.
  46. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Buyers stepped back after we fell back under the daily pivot. Latest dip coincided with algos selling the break below intraday VWAP.
  47. Z

    TSLA Technical Analysis

    traderstewie‏ @traderstewie 34 minutes ago I like this HAMMER reversal candle in $TSLA today. $TSLA has a habit of bouncing after HAMMER candles. Look for a bounce off this area
  48. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Algo. I mean, a nice buy spike from dark pools could indicate short capitulation, but that's uncommon after a bounce like this... I think they're more careful to not positively impact price too much. Algo buying in the past has been a better predictor, simply because dark pool clear net buying...
  49. Z

    2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

    Daily pivot @ 348.46 will be resistance on the way to that. After the first dump of the day we retested it and confirmed it had become resistance. That said, starting to see some algo buying spikes, 5k shares in the last 10 minutes. If the momentum can be sustained to $350, I don't think...