2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Intl Professor]

I think what's dragging TSLA down is that speculation for hitting 1500 Model 3 produced is not within reach: VIN 310 for Model 3.

That would make sense to us, but the market is mindless by comparison. Think markets. Maybe some big seller buyer has market orders in or around 100 sma. I see on pre or post market Nasdaq sales of TSLA for 1 then another 1, etc., for the longest time then one for 2,600 at once. Papafox is that prima facie evidence of manipulation? (Fits with Fashboys evidence?)

 

[BLSmith2112]

To me, it looks like shorts will try stall it for 3 days and hope Q3 will be poor (speculation is it won't be good) to drive a hammer into the idea that we've bottomed out.

 

[Papafox]

Consider that in a typical week about 40% of TSLA trading activity is done by shorts, but the total amount of shares shorts are holding in TSLA does not change dramatically. The reason for this apparent conflict is that shorts are selling and covering far more often than longs (buying and selling). The big shorts are making money during the downturn through lots of activity. They are also recouping some of their losses in their core shares. Once the stock stops descending, though, many of the manipulations lose their profitability.

 

[jelloslug]

To me, it looks like shorts will try stall it for 3 days and hope Q3 will be poor (speculation is it won't be good) to drive a hammer into the idea that we've bottomed out.

There is no indication that 3rd quarter will be poor.

 

[Richgoogol]

What's the current 100 day average for SP?

 

[Papafox]

That would make sense to us, but the market is mindless by comparison. Think markets. Maybe some big seller buyer has market orders in or around 100 sma. I see on pre or post market Nasdaq sales of TSLA for 1 then another 1, etc., for the longest time then one for 2,600 at once. Papafox is that prima facie evidence of manipulation? (Fits with Fashboys evidence?)

I'm thinking there's so much manipulation that is done in the market that there's little chance your particular manipulation will be caught, particularly if exercised through dark pools, etc. Thus, it's business as usual for the shorts. Further, once longs get their mojo back, all of the work of the shorts quickly disappears. The net result is more volatility but not necessarily lower stock price for TSLA. The volatility offers great opportunities for savvy investors, but it makes short-term bets very sketchy because you really don't know what manipulation lies around the corner.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I have a few working scenarios for short-term stock price movement: basically depending on when definitive 'good news' comes out. If there's a positive surprise on deliveries, a rally might start in early October. If there's a positive surprise on earnings or cash flow, it might start in early November. Otherwise, I'm expecting the rally in January (Q4 deliveries) or February (Q4 financials).... but the market does have a habit of anticipating, so it might start early.

I estimate that the scenario where the rise starts early, in the form of SP creeping up higher throughout 4Q18 to $400-$500, is more likely.

 

[madodel]

There is no important Tesla news out today that I'm aware of and the broader markets are up today. Judging by the volume spikes (100 per minute here, 300 there, 40,000 in another minute, the shorts are throwing everything but the kitchen sink at Tesla right now, trying to worry longs about dipping below the 100 day moving average. The problem with this strategy is if they lose this battle and the stock price starts climbing steeply in the green, they have far less ammo available to stop that climb.

There is this ignoramus "Bernstein predicts Tesla shares will plunge as it nears an unprecedented $10 billion cash burn" on CNBC. Compares TSLA to Amazon and Costco. No place for comments but the moron has a Twitter - Tae Kim (@firstadopter) | Twitter

 

[Richgoogol]

Finally someone on our side.
China will eventually be Tesla's biggest market, analyst predicts
China will eventually be Tesla's biggest market, analyst predicts

 

[bdy0627]

Red hourly candles are clearly dominating today with solid volume, though the last one did have much lower volume. We need to see some solid volume green candles develop. Problem is that we are heading into the lower volume lunch hours where we usually don't get great volume. I would expect a further slide until the last hour or two of the day. If the buying response at that point has been weak, I would expect shorts to hit hard/add to their positions, which would make a PM recovery difficult. This does not look to me like the kind of day where heavy buying pressure will develop late. It will likely take covering shorts to foster the PM rise but this pattern may not cause much covering today.

 

[Tslynk67]

There is no indication that 3rd quarter will be poor.

I neither see any reason to believe it's a poor quarter, quite the opposite in fact. Note another 150 cars registered in Norway today - looks like Q3 there might be about the same as the first half of the year.

Verbal exchanges with Tesla staff here in Belgium indicate strong sales too, plus I've seen lots of inventory cars being shifted as I was buying my X.

 

[zdriver]

Oh hai, volume, almost forgot you existed...

Algo buy spike. 10k shares so far, dark pools starting to follow now.

 

[jelloslug]

I neither see any reason to believe it's a poor quarter, quite the opposite in fact. Note another 150 cars registered in Norway today - looks like Q3 there might be about the same as the first half of the year.

Verbal exchanges with Tesla staff here in Belgium indicate strong sales too, plus I've seen lots of inventory cars being shifted as I was buying my X.

Yea, that's what I have been reading also.

 

[Richgoogol]

Hmm what's going on now?

 

[zdriver]

Hmm what's going on now?

My somebody-knows-something sense is tingling.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Hmm what's going on now?

Tesla is deeply underpriced versus its intrinsic value, so price spikes unaccompanied by news should be expected.

 

[FredTMC]

Buying...

 

[racer26]

I neither see any reason to believe it's a poor quarter, quite the opposite in fact. Note another 150 cars registered in Norway today - looks like Q3 there might be about the same as the first half of the year.

Verbal exchanges with Tesla staff here in Belgium indicate strong sales too, plus I've seen lots of inventory cars being shifted as I was buying my X.

Also the VIN trackers can tell you that VIN numbers would seem to suggest somewhere north of 14k Model S and 12k Model X this quarter. Hard to be accurate, but the signs look positive, and coupled with Norwegian registration data and anecdotal evidence of cars being listed in inventory and moving quickly definitely suggest its a good quarter for S/X.

 

[Papafox]

Hmm what's going on now?

FredTMC is buying (plus a few others)

Edit: if the shorts can stop this quick rally by capping and push the stock price lower, they can make money on the attempted breakout. On the other hand, the move highlights how vulnerable the shorts are right now and puts some fear into their ranks. If the rally can break the cap and run higher, then other longs will join in. This is high stakes poker and the first party to blink loses the round.

 

[LoveTSLA]

FredTMC is buying (plus a few others)

The party just started...