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Things don't go to *sugar* overnight, we are only a few weeks into lockdowns in several big states. We saw 3M new unemployment claims today.. To put this in perspective I've included the historical chart. Mnuchin says they are not relevant. If we know this is all caused by a virus, does that...

Once all the shorts and put holders give up I'm it will likely continue the down trend. I did sell some more TSLA today so you can thank me when it goes up again tomorrow :) Good luck to all that are trying to trade this volatility

That’s an insane amount of debt, which no doubt the Federal Reserve will end up “buying” Besides hedging TSLA with inverse ETFs I’ve been buying BTC at these levels as an inflation hedge for my cash. Not advice

I remember all the rip roaring bounces we had on the way to the March 2009 bottom during the last big crisis. The market is still pricing this like it will be over in a few months. Based on the modeling I’ve seen were going to be seeing limited economic activity for many more months. When we...

I don't think we're there yet. I'm seeing job losses all around and we are still not even a month into this. Small businesses have already started folding and this will likely cascade. Unemployement is going to spike, and despite what banks were saying about how strong their balance sheets...

Love this idea, it’s essentially a binary search applied to testing and should scale near log(n) of the total test need which would flatten the testing demand curve quite literally.

Sorry for my short reply if it wasn't clear, my hypothesis is the data from China is not complete. There's cases in Wuhan that are not known, or perhaps even some that are, that are not reported.

It's not true?

Wuhan is still under lockdown. The finding of this study is if they discontinue lock down the infection will flare up again, undoing the benefits.

Read the paper... To keep the curve flat you need to stay indoors for a very long time.

Except what happens after 30 days? We just start the dance over again, that's what. Summary: Inside the model that may be making US, UK rethink coronavirus control Paper...

I understand the conservatism here from you and other health care professionals, but I think getting a supply of the drug now might be a good choice for anyone with symptoms. They should consult their provider but the risk reward for someone who is having breathing problems seems to favor...

Thank you for chiming in on the risks as these should be made clear, but this medicine is prescribed as a malaria prophylactic so it's generally well tolerated by a large part of the populace. To say there is only in vitro results in not true. There is growing evidence of in vivo results. And...

If you really think you have COVID-19 I would advise you to call your health care provider ASAP and try to get a proscription for hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine phosphate (if the former is out of stock). These are proving to be effective treatments based on early clinical study results and...

Agreed, running the car for 10 miles is like measuring MPG by doing short trips in ICE cars, lots of short trips will be way less efficient

TSLA was previously trading on lofty future growth estimates based and excellent execution, my take is now we are seeing it sell off more than the broader market since it's valuation was levered to that future growth which the market has lost confidence in. In times like these investors are...

They are hourly employees so they don't get paid for time not working unless they use PTO. The real issue is that without pay for an extended period of time many will move on looking for other work since they have bills to pay. This is going to be the story all over the US in the next few...

Well traded. I'm HODLing TSLA because my wife has given me strict instructions not to sell it. Instead I opened hedge positions in TZA and (3x short smallcaps) and FAZ (3x short financials) on the hypothesis we'll see a financial crisis hitting smaller firms that don't have as much access to...

I think a large part of the rally to 900 was brought on by confidence in the balance sheet and now that we are dropping below the convertible bond prices the balance sheet is looking a lot worse at a time of increased uncertainty which has an almost delta hedging like magnification effect on the...

Chamath Palihapitiya on stock selloff: I suspect we are nowhere near the lows Takeaways: 1. 1.6T in junk debt in energy sector alone that needs a bid 2. Travel impact alone may be 5% of GDP 3. Stimulus needs to be TARP in size 4. Predicts impacts like great recession but long slow market...

It's not how many cases you have "confirmed" that matters...

It’s going to have to get much worse to get our leaders heads out of the sand, but by then our health system will be overcome in the US. Trump will say “Nobody could have expected this” This realization that the US response will be so much worse than China or South Korea is why I’m currently so...

I just finished watching tonights White House press conference. My takeaways; 1. They are pushing a payroll tax cut to help workers. 2. They are directing Americans to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) which redirects to the CDC website section on Coronavirus. 3. CDC & private labs on on...

It will be hard to hide the deaths, as serious cases will all likely end up getting tested. It will then be somewhat trivial to estimate overall infections using data from other countries.

Sigh... The stage is being set for it to be much worse in the US than China or South Korea.

My thought was Elon thinks the sell off in TSLA is dumb because he’s seeing good sales and great execution. I think Q1 will be ok but Q2 could see bigger impacts in consumer behavior changes and possible supply chain issues.

If credit markets continue to freeze up things will get worse. This is like radiation poisoning to businesses that depend on easy access, they can get a fatal dose before they even realize it. Credit Market Endures Worst Day in a Decade on Virus Rout Bloomberg - Are you a robot? My hedging...

Thanks @KarenRei for your thoughts. Based on my observations there is a quiet panic out there. Here in MN where there’s no known transmission we are seeing empty store shelves and “aggressive shopping”. People are canceling events and likely delaying large purchases that are not time critical...

Where's the source for the 1000 samples tested? I read the article here but no mention of the number of samples they have completed testing for: https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/ These researches estimate ~600 people may have been infected in the Washington outbreak. Do we...

Note: There’s currently 2 threads in the model 3 ordering and delivery forum.

I think the risk is honestly more to Q2 than Q1 at this point. I think Tesla's nimbleness will be an advantage to enabling them to come up with creative solutions but I worry about impacts to supply chain as well as people who were planning to order a car deciding to wait out of caution about...

I am transferring dry powder into my brokerage but I’m not of the opinion we’ve seen the lows yet. It will take atleast a few months for the real impacts to be felt. Earnings reports will be key data points to the real costs vs panic.

How many will you be able to buy next week?

I see the market value of Tesla’s pooling credits increasing.. wonder if they will have any way to take advantage of that...

One of the interesting details that came with the leak of the 110KWh battery pack is that it's supposedly configured in a way that delivers 450v, where as the existing 100Kwh pack is 400v. The step up should allow for 12.5% more power output at the same current limits. That could mean a step up...

Doing the math on the current pack you get 3.9 - 3.97 miles per KWh (98kwh usable vs 100kwh advertised). So a “110KWh” pack should provide between 429-437 miles of range in the efficient LR config. Though Tesla will be temped to derate the EPA rating to 420 miles. An instant classic :cool:

I think the lowest hanging fruit would be some better insulation for the battery pack and cabin. This would help cruising efficiency in the winter where today the battery is losing heat and efficiency due to cold airflow under the car.

Quite simply put demand and price are correlated. If demand is way above supply then Tesla can and should increase prices which improve margins. So if advertising can increase margins net advertising expense it may be worth it.

Don’t you think they applied those learnings and more from S/X already?

As long as Tesla is battery constrained on their own products it makes little sense to contribute to products of other manufacturers. Also the complete car with software upgrades will deliver higher margins so why not focus on that vs skateboards?

My experience is that they definitely will not call you...

The rumors of a 100kwh pack are based on verygreen's tweets where he found some new pack sizes on the software and he speculated it may be model 3 related. I don't buy it since the Model 3 is a smaller platform and the 100kw battery would take up considerably more space and add weight, it...

This is normal, Tesla deploys new versions of SW in waves and because of the complexity of supporting different hardware revisions, some cars may be left on older firmware for a period of time until issues are fixed.

I'm happy to see this move by Tesla, I think the #1 priority should be to build battery manufacturing capacity. A large part of Tesla's plan depends on increasing that supply. A few billion dollars make a big difference here.

For those of us who held from 380 to 178 and where we are today, a drop to 400 would be a buying opportunity.

Q1 2019 created some good buying opportunities for long term investors. Q1 2020 could do the same if it’s surprising to the downside... but I think expectations are probably more in line this time.

Or they sold too much call exposure and are now hedged...

The real question is which will come first, “feature complete FSD” or Model S refresh :D

I’m fairly certain that’s just a display issue. The timing on the oncoming traffic is so consistently offset, and the HW3 cars show the same consistency. We have other evidence in the video that shows HW3 has more accurate versions of the NNs running and we know HW3 is barely breaking a sweat.

Not sure if this is already well known on this forum but the discussion at 1:34 in the below video was interesting to me. I'm on HW 2.5 and I also see pretty spotty detection of cars in adjacent lanes and at odd angles, watching the video it seems to have much higher accuracy, picking up cars in...