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The big lingering question: What case do they have that they can manufacture at volume and at a cost that makes the product attractive? Any insights appreciated

It's true that Fred could have left off "surprising move indicating weak demand" out of the headline. However, I find that he usually does a good job of separating factual reporting from the opinion in his pieces, which is why they frequently have and "Electrek's Take" section. At the same...

My favorite comment: "Thanks everyone... We look forward to installing millions of roofs."

I'm really surprised there are not more posts about demand right now on this forum (or if I've missed current ones, please provide some links). I'd love to hear more educated guesses about demand and shipment forecasts for this quarter and the next few quarters (particularly some of the educated...

Old adage about the stock market "a bull market climbs a wall of worry" sometimes applies to individual stocks too. As I've argued previously, operating margin expansion is often the crucial variable that propels stock price appreciation. With this in mind, TSLA may be just getting started.

The role of a chairman is to represent shareholders. There is no conflict if the chairman is an owner. Independence is sought from management.

Guys, what about Gene Munster for Chairman? Here's the logic: He understands the company and wants it to succeed long-term, but he has also been thoughtful and critical in ways that you would want a person in that position to be. He's also followed Apple from the days when it was virtually a...

Looking back, this private/no private drama will be considered a side show. The Bloomberg model 3 tracker indicates 5500 per week. If Tesla keeps this up -- and there does not seem to be a reason why it will not -- the company is truly crossing the rubicon. The model 3 is a better car...

Here's my $0.02 on this deal: I think it makes perfect sense. So long as one might reasonable assume some liquidity at six month intervals and no other strange terms, I'll probably just continue on with my same position. Those of us who choose this route and look back five years from now will...

Tesla bears today: "Look, if we built this large wooden badger."

I've stated on this forum before (but admittedly forgot where) that the single most important variable for stock price appreciation is operating margin expansion -- particularly margin expansion that beats consensus forecast. In this respect, I don't think Tesla is different than any other...

What I find pathetic about Gordon's "I'm a financial analyst" throat clearing is that he's not really talking about numbers that have any meaning. He's not even analyzing. The true definition of free cash flow subtracts non-discretionary cap ex -- e.g. the cap ex required to maintain the...

Short selling can be benevolent. It also can serve a constructive role in uncovering fraud. A while back there was a terrific op ed in the WSJ or the NY Times (I forget which one) that was written by a financial regulator who discussed how short sellers helped his regulatory team uncover fraud...

I found Andrej's presentation fascinating, albeit well over my head at points too. One point stood out for me: Apple has always touted the benefits of integrating hardware and software, and it has done well taking that route. Perhaps this dynamic is going to be even more important for Tesla with...

I took the liberty of adding to this BNEF chart on battery pack pricing: Twitter link Christopher Arndt on Twitter

Exactly right, and a great source of confusion for a lot of others.

There's been a number of posts recently on this forum and elsewhere drawing parallels between the current period and 2013. One other recent parallel struck me. The coverage of Tesla in early 2013 also seemed to be heavily biased against the company with misguided concerns (fire risk, battery...

I was a buy-side analyst for 16 years. I've been on thousands of earnings calls. The analysts questions were lame and I'm glad Elon moved on when he did. If there is any question about the wisdom of him moving to the youtuber, it was answered when he went back to the sell side and Ben from Baird...

Agree. And, it's a lot to take in -- even though I thought I knew a lot about AI already. The implications are just so profound. I had to watch it twice this weekend.

Good catch!

Good point. I would agree that macro risk right now is greater. We have a president who is actively undermining the principles of a liberal democracy and a Republican Party that has become fully radicalized, abdicating its role as a check on the executive branch. We are also eight years into an...

I make valuation calls infrequently and keep track of them on this thread: Long TSLA, but bearish next six months But comments are germane to this thread. Any feedback appreciated! I'm going to weigh in on this thread again as I think this is another noteworthy valuation moment for TSLA. For...

I'm going to weigh in on this thread again as I think this is another noteworthy valuation moment for TSLA. For me, a noteworthy moment is when the risk/reward dynamics are either particularly good or particularly bad. I've been a long term holder on Tesla since late 2012, but I think the risk...

Yes, this is the key. If Tesla is able to profitably scale 3 production, this narrative about incumbent advantages will quickly end.

An FT article this morning is a good example of how views move from impossible to inevitable without ever stopping at probable. The conventional view now is that EVs are the future, but the incumbent auto makers are in the poll position to take advantage of the change. Some of the arguments...

THIS QUOTE: "I think it's a bargain even at $55,000, because it's far more than a car. It's a work of art, a concept car come to life, more revelatory than the Model S, and historically even more important." That's a pretty terrific endorsement. Interesting he found the AP interface so bad, but...

Curious as to what other peoples' best guesses might be about how many Model 3s Tesla will be able to produce on a weekly basis at the start of 2018. Of course, this could ramp up pretty steeply in January and February, but I'm curious to hear peoples's thoughts about the starting point of model...

I see myusername vs. Tesla similar to the Black Knight vs. King Arthur. At some point in 2018, we will get to the denouement of this skit -- e.g. "Oh I see... running away eh... you yellow bastard, come back here and take what's coming to you... I'll bite your legs off."

How'd you do that? Tried different browsers, can't get back on

I did too.

Anyone selling just the adaptor for a 220 outlet?

A few thoughts on TSLA post conference call: I never banked on Elon being a Dante aficionado, and clearly he's not. For a few weeks now, it seemed likely that there were significant manufacturing issues with Model 3. I held out a small hope that things might be mostly turned around by the...

I've been assuming that two way EV charging doesn't make any sense -- that the value of peak shaving to the grid from an EV feeding the grid would be less than the cost of cycling an EV battery. But, I just noticed the study below, also highlighted by Joe Romm, which claims that, with the right...

The principle: a genuine effort toward even dissemination. Pre-market releases are often an hour before the market opens for the same reason you cite (and usually not less than 1/2 hour).

Almost always when the market is closed.

Got it. Thanks, CA

I'm well aware of their comments on the 2Q results call. Investors have been thrown off by judging VINs in the past -- why would these be reliable now? Are Inside EVs #s based on anything other than sheer extrapolation?

If Model S & X deliveries are strong and management indicates demand remains robust, Tesla is in very good shape. Frankly, I would not really care how the stock reacts in the short term, though I imagine it would bounce. One question: Why is everyone so bullish right now on S & X deliveries...

If Tesla enters the restaurant business, I hope they sell a Tesla branded Kool Aid -- just to troll the bears!

I can provide a little context on the BNEF EV forecast as I had the opportunity to listen to their client call when they made their EV update. The curious part of the forecast is that, despite crossing all sorts of important tipping points now and in the next few years, the forecast actually...

A higher order rate for S & X following the July 28th event -- tremendously positive if that holds. Those cars have solid margins and can help fund the model 3 ramp if demand stays steady or even increases. Overall, really positive release in my view. As ValueAnalyst notes, the leverage to...

Quick question: I think Tesla management has always talked about battery costs in terms of pack costs, and even disparaged others who cite cell costs alone as "battery costs." Thus when Straubel said at the Edison Electric Institute talk ( see minute 36) that he would be "disappointed if their...

Okay, but let's peel the onion back a bit more here. What type of risks are you talking about as it relates to the model 3? How severe? For how long? In taking significant long positions, I like to think about all the things that could go wrong -- their severity and their probability --...

Agree. Leaving that as icing on the cake since there is so little detail on those products as of yet.

Anyone have a view as to why some Street analysts still have such a bearish view on Tesla's revenue outlook? For example, JP Morgan's Ryan Brinkman has Tesla's top line at $25 billion in 2020. Consensus Street is higher at $37 billion 2020. Nonetheless, I think there is a reasonable shot Tesla...

Looks like it. Upon googling, the same error comes up in a few other places.

Third paragraph in referenced link: Elon Musk on Twitter

Why does Musk use the term "space-bearing"? Not to be picky, but is that even a term? Also, "bearing" is pretty negative in its connotation "The ability to tolerate something bad or to be tolerated" is one definition. The normal term is "space-faring." What am I missing?

One big positive on this release that has not received much attention is the comment that the long term gross margin on energy storage is "expected to be similar to Automotive." Keep in mind that in other calls and presentations, JB has said that associated operating expenses (e.g. selling and...

This is a tragedy, and my heart goes out to the family. Last summer I drove from the East Coast to Colorado in a 2013 S without autopilot. In Colorado, I purchase a 2015 S so that I could have all wheel drive for the Colorado winter. This new car has autopilot and I recently drove it from...