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Another interesting piece of info here is that they measured the cell capacity to 5.7Ah, but think it is even 6Ah. Started a discussion of this particular data-point over at an old thread on the Model 3 capacity [Spoiler Alert + Mild Speculation] Tesla has created a monster! if anyone here want...

Yes, sure, totally agree, the chemistry is the same by this math. The point is that the 6Ah quoted in the video is 20% more than this roughly 5Ah, a bit less if we go by the 5.7Ah. So, the Munro data point is significantly different from what we can calculate from either the EPA Model 3 data, or...

Yes, this is what I'm leaning towards too. Pure speculation until someone proves that the cells only charges to lower than the 4.15V we know from Model S/X in max range. But very interesting if they indeed apply this strategy now suddenly. Before, they have pushed the limit. Note that the charge...

Yes, the more recent cells are 3400 mAh. So definitely not doubling from that basis. My guess is that Munro tore down, or refer to cells of an original S85 when it came out, which according to @wk057 had useful 77.5 kWh = 3000 mAh cells, and actual 81.5 kWh so 3150 mAh cells, so around 3Ah and...

Yes, you are right that volume wise it somewhat lower than 1.5x. And using actual 80.5 kWh instead of usable 78.3 kWh give us 5Ah. But still, this is off by 20% compared to 6Ah which is a lot. And 20% take us from 250 to 300 Wh/kg, a huge deal at cell level, if their measurement is correct...

JRP3 and others who discussed the EPA doc: What do you say about the new piece of info from Sandy Munro at the at the 32:00 minute mark? He quite clearly say that they measured the cells to be 50% the volume, but 100% more mA. "From 3000 ma to 5700. Actually, we think it is 6000". There are...

Aha. Thanks!

Anyone else that find it peculiar that the two side rows with fewer "bricks" of cells seem to be of equal lengh as the inner ones from a pack enclosure poiny of view? The pictures Electrek shared Tesla Model 3: Exclusive first look at Tesla’s new battery pack architecture showed some content...

Whats up with the conflicting charge port and trunk, that you cant open both from the center screen? (@17:45) Whats the reason? If you can not open the trunk while charging that seems very strange.

And integrating charger and other things in the pack, could explain why the pack level specific energy density is given as low as 150Wh/kg in the EPA file, I expected more.

Thanks for this. So the weight diff is 120 kg minus charger, i.e., 231Wh/kg as you say. But, is this really cell level? If 150 Wh/kg is correct at pack level, then the pack weight for 75 kWh is 500 kg, close to the MS 85 (2014) 545 kg (using the values in the pdf on MS you linked). If you would...

Sorry if I have missed discussion of this in this thread or elsewhere. I can't get specific energy density to add up from the info we now know. First, lets assume nameplate battery pack capacity (if there were a badge) would be 50kWh and 75kWh, based on Elons comments, and also matching the 2...

Indeed, this is the best review of LCA studies done to date (academic BEV research is my job...). There is quite some uncertainties in this, system boundaries are always difficult with LCA etc, but this is as far as I'm aware the state of art LCA knowledge for BEVs.

CO. first, I totally agree on the cycling issue, this might not be a viable solutions, and I have not done the math either. It might very well be that the more frequently cycled 7kWh system really need another cell. So, all of the following disregard this, and I leave for someone to do the math...

Something that I don't think have been brought up with regard to the battery cost in the new products, that also perhaps tells us something on their product strategy: 1) Given prising, the upper boundary of pack cost (treating the whole power wall product as pack cost) is either 350 USD/kWh...

Ok, I'll chip in my estimated deliveries for Q3: 6100. I have tracked VINs, not in terms of assignment, but in terms of actual deliveries, as I think this (surprise) captures deliveries better ;-) Was very close on deliveries in Q2, but it is more uncertain now due to the EU pipe. I have...

Finally starting to be some real news cover in Sweden on Model S: Today a short news item form TT (Swedish equvalent of AP) reiterated by at least two major newspapers on the success of Tesla in Norway http://www.dn.se/ekonomi/elbil-toppar-listan-i-norge/ and...

As far as i understand (there have been plenty of info on this else were at the forum) they completely assemble cars for both EU and US in the factory, then they remove the battery, and some other stuff to be able to export a "not complete" car. They then reassemble them in Tilburg. It is all...

(This is perhaps becoming of topic, mods, feel free to move this) Production wise they have had 500 units / w capability for a while but not continuously, which is what we are talking about in order to work out actual yearly production. They also operate not 50 weeks but rather 48 weeks tops...

With regard to testing this should absolutely be very advance. Remember that Tesla have publicly stated that they have qualified 2 different supplyers since long. So you are right that this has probably been in the works. I can't imagine that Tesla would be on the verge of ordering large number...

Yes, exactly my thought when I heard this. And half the no of cells means more or less the 26650 cell as the volume of this is slightly more than twice that of the 18650. Anyone knows if 26650s are sold/used in any volumes? If there are few uses of these, and production capacity, or, the...

That's about as clear as it gets. Panasonic is ramping up production in the Suminoe plant, and committing to more investments in this sector. It is quite telling that the growing demand from Tesla contributed to a turnaround for them. At a margin of 5.8% which must be up from previous bad Qs if...

Certainly very optimistic to think that they can grow like this, but just based of the exponential growth in the past, this is indeed the trajectory that they are on! Very simplistic exponential forecast below, based on MW data available in their reports, and a guessed crude allocation of yearly...

Yes, tough nut to crack in terms of the scale of investment. However, in term of margins, I think it is doable. For GEN III, lets say they can make the car sans battery for 25000, including 15% margin. A base Gen III model 50kWh battery for 9000 USD. Add 15% margin for Tesla AND 10% ADDITIONAL...

Yes, I think the graph at p 3, which puts 2007 year cell cost at about 2.5USD/cell makes your estimates of below 2USD/cell for Model S quite plausible.

Yes, it is years, or has been historically at least. I have started making an analysis of the Li-ion battery production capacity of the world (as many others here I noted the growing concern in Elons TSLIVE talk), but the data is quite hard to compile. I'll might post something when I feel more...

Sure, here are the key bits: I model all with the data in the income statements of the 10-Qs, and my understanding is that this is GAAP(?). I am quite unfamiliar with this as we seldom have the equivalent dual track analysis in Sweden. However, in the following I have not included the lease...

Great posts all, this is very close to my own estimates, and I agree with your general conclusion that revenue especially will again come as a big surprise. A contribution regarding issue #3, the increase in costs: In my financial model I have assumed that selling and general administrative...

Yes, I think a "normalized" $0.30/share is quite doable, and I posted a question on the market reaction to lease accounting this in the other "Q2 surprise thread" (my bad if it was the wrong thread, but they are similar)...

Here is my contribution to some of the "elements" above: Cars delivered and Cars produced: Yes, should be a big surprise, same type of sandbagging/surprise as in Q1. My VIN tracking show 5700 difference between end of Q2 and end of Q1, but even if there are only few cars in transport to Europe...

Hi all, What is the best place to follow investment discussions of SCTY? I have been reading TMC for about a year since I started following Tesla more closely. I am long in both (TSLA since about 8 months and SCTY since IPO), but have not found the equivalent of TMC for SCTY, if there is such...