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  1. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I did the exact same thing - trade-in estimate in February. My experience is identical (except, I think I've had 5 different contacts including a couple phone calls). New wrinkle, today they offered me 5000 free miles of Supercharging in addition to FSD transfer. I've never been so...
  2. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Anecdote: I've received 4 different texts and 2 different phone calls this quarter to upgrade my Model S or Model X. The Model X is 8 weeks old. The Model S is 30 months old. Never personally experienced this much of a sales push from Tesla since I first ordered 12 years ago. (And, as...
  3. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Seems like Copilot has a pretty good take on what's been going on in this thread lately... Plus it could moderate too! Mod: disagree. Please take followups to the AI thread. --ggr
  4. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Nominal GDP in Q4 was also +1.2%, so debt grew at roughly the same size as the economy. Totally normal! In general, household debt to GDP has been trending down. (Edited chart for better longer source). p.s. They didn't even cite their source -- since that would undermine their intent...
  5. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Scanning the opinion... (disclaimer: I have no views on whether it is upheld on appeal but would note that all appeals are tricky). Very colorful language. Favorite line so far. "In the final analysis, Musk launched a self-driving process, recalibrating the speed and direction along the way...
  6. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Hate to wade into this since this chart is so poorly (and misleadingly) designed, but just to be clear... Everything below the Average Hourly Wages line (114% higher) is more affordable, not less affordable, than it was in 2000. This includes: housing, food, cars, clothing, etc. To keep this...
  7. R

    Model X Pending Deliveries - Postponed due to Firmware / Software Issues?

    Not for me, unfortunately. SC tried to fix major FWD alignment issues (no mere panel gaps), but was unable to and we rejected delivery. I've never seen worse FWD alignment on any Tesla Model X (and this will be our 4th). Freemont and SC QC seems unimproved at best... Fingers crossed that the...
  8. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Pretty much identical to Model X in terms of Price/Range combo on the All Wheel. Even Beast versus Plaid is pretty similar. Makes sense overall.
  9. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Unfortunately, yes. https://secvteslafairfund.com/Home/portalid/0?portalid=0 Keep in mind that you had to have purchased within the 28 hours after the "funding secured" tweet to be eligible to participate. Then, you needed to either hold for the whole 28 hours or sell at a loss during that...
  10. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    A real badge of honor. ;) Who believed the tweet with the most buy conviction? (I'm personally getting a large check too -- seems like a lot of us were trigger happy).
  11. R

    Off topic galore

    Not much as curse at, but just cursed? Last 4 months was particularly bad luck (with weekend failures, no less) since these Tesla's had been pretty good so far. This was the first tow for each. My 3 S's were definitely more reliable than my 3 X's. The 2017 X had 2 tows in just 12 months...
  12. R

    Off topic galore

    OT, but couldn't leave this hanging: Not quite your point, but 10+ year Tesla driver as a counterpoint to your first sentence. I've personally been stranded 2x in the last 4 months. Once in my 2021 S (door wouldn't close because of faulty latch) and once in my 2020 X (12V battery smoking)...
  13. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Oops. i wrote engineering and got them confused. Yes. I meant Post-Zach. glad we still have Drew.
  14. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Interesting that most of the above conversation is focused on whether the S/X price cuts and Highland. I'm more interested in the "dynamic" decision to introduce a new product 2 weeks ago and then kill it. Not the first time they've done that, but I think it may be the quickest? (Real...
  15. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Nice to see him take time out of his busy day to comment.
  16. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Wanted to echo this point. Planned successions of CFOs can be announced in conjunction with earnings releases (like with Deepak in 2019) or other news events. Second, there wasn't a pre-announcement (like with Deepak) (i.e., Tesla announces that Zach will resign in [x] months.). As a...
  17. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    On the subject of Blackrock... Just a friendly reminder that Blackrock is primarily an index manager of equities (>90% of its equity AUM of ~$5 trillion is in index product). As a result, most of its purchases of Tesla are mechanical purchases driven by inflows into index funds (and index...
  18. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Won't make political predictions here to stay within the rules. However, to be clear, the Republican majority in the House has proposed to reverse or eliminate all the EV, solar and battery credits. If passed, this would adversely impact Tesla's U.S. margins (as noted in the 10-Q) and...
  19. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Weirder still. Just re-watched last night's engineering HQ video. Each of the other 4 cities are explicitly highlighted in the video.
  20. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What operations does Tesla have in San Diego? This map was the first I'd seen of it, but I think I must have missed something. In a quick search, I do notice a bunch of battery engineering jobs listed for San Diego. Is this just a research facility? Something else that may be coming?
  21. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think we may have found this number out today with the recall of FSD Beta. They recalled 362,758 cars in the United States that had access to FSD Beta. Since I believe FSD Beta is only available for fully-paid FSD purchasers, that may be the right number or close to it. (At the very least...
  22. R

    Next Tesla CEO/COO

    If the Board were looking for a clean break, I'd suggest JB Straubel. Acquire Redwood Materials, give JB an updated version of Elon's incentive package and let it fly. Maybe we had the equation wrong the whole time. Elon=Woz JB=Jobs
  23. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not a surprise. It definitely seems like the $7500 offer is working for Model 3/Y. (Or Tesla started throttling production at the same time). Northern California Model Y supply makes complete sense. Freemont produces more than 500 Model Ys a day and there's always supply late in the year...
  24. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Counterpoint anecdote. I had a May 2023 estimated Model X delivery (and don't need a car any earlier). 2 weeks ago, Tesla reached out to see if I wanted to take a non-matching car for early delivery. I declined. 5 days later, Tesla upped the offer to include the 10k miles. I declined. 7...
  25. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is the most Elon has heard on pronouns and why it might be hurting his brand. I hope he's a grown-up and doesn't leave this call....
  26. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Might be the most sycophantic statement I've heard yet on this call.
  27. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Apparently the overly reductionist approach Elon has to free speech applies to his understanding of finance too. Or, he's simply obfuscating. Of course, he's right for the market as whole and it quite obviously explains part of the decline, but definitely not all of it. Maybe he should go...
  28. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Just thought I'd follow up on this. As of yesterday, SPY held 30,000,260 shares. It sold about 245,000 shares since Thursday and sits at 1.25% of the index (versus 1.24% Thursday). Given a slight uptick in the weighting, but outsized decline of TSLA relative to SPY since Thursday, you can...
  29. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Great post. I'd add that any doubters can check the numbers themselves with SPY (SPY is a very transparent view into ETF holdings). Tesla has indeed already declined as a percentage of the ETF to reflect its decline in market cap.. As of yesterday, it was about 1.24% of the index (SPY...
  30. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    One more for fun... October 1 through today. I'm not arguing that the market reaction is justified, but it's really hard to argue that the market has not reacted negatively to Elon's new job...
  31. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Funny. I'll take the bait on #3 since I'm just catching up! On the AMZN chart, no sense in arguing it, but I really wish the posters of that chart would acknowledge that they've cherry-picked the time period and the comparative companies. (Of course, I've cherry-picked too, but that's my...
  32. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Minor data point on this. I have a Model X order with March-to-May 2023 delivery window. Got a text today offering me to search available inventory for delivery this December. They gave me a link that pulled up 3 available cars with very similar configs (but priced higher because I had the...
  33. R

    Elon & Twitter

    Thanks for the fix. Edited my post.
  34. R

    Elon & Twitter

    (Edited below -- Thanks for the clarification) Exactly, Daniel. This was a public display of power by Tim Cook. Elon got nothing from the visit (at least from what we know) and Tim got him to stop disparaging Apple. Moreover, it was the good kind of power. Instead of retaliating tit-for-tat...
  35. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla is a corporation. It does not have an operating agreement. It's certificate of incorporation was most recently updated by the proxy statement soliciting the vote for the split (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459022024064/tsla-def14a_20220804.htm). You can read it...
  36. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Good catch. Given the change in interest rates (plus the increase in Tesla's cash), you should probably expect ~1.5X - 2X that much interest income in Q4. Depending on potential rising interest expense, it could start to get material. (math: we don't know exactly what Tesla's cash...
  37. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Adding one more thought to this, that perhaps TheAccountant could comment on. It's my lay understanding that other automakers link their R&D expenses to a specific product and amortize them across the lifecycle of the car (that's why they put them into the automotive gross margin calculation)...
  38. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    To be clear, both Ross and Gary control more shares than that represented by their public ETFs. In Ross' case, he has a large individual client pool and manages about $1 billion. Similarly, Gary has a hedge fund and appears to have a large individual client with about $90 million (maybe it's...
  39. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Seconding this question. I'm still trying to find a large cap mutual fund (or any equity fund, really) that is explicitly prohibited from buying stocks of companies with below-investment grade issuer ratings (or senior debt ratings). Similarly, if anyone is aware of any indices or index funds...
  40. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Since you accused me of illogic or TSLAQ FUD for mere glib word choice (did you not notice the qualifying word "nice"?), I guess I have to reply? To answer your question, of course it's double-dipping for them to sell a single car two different times with a profit each time. It doesn't matter...
  41. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Don't think so. Those institutional holdings are not Credit Suisse directly, but held by mutual funds and other investment product managed by CS throughout the world. CS' internal capital pressures shouldn't directly impact any selling by its funds. Over time, you may see CS funds sell if...
  42. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'd add that prices seem to have come down slightly since month-end. I wasn't tracking any particular models, but a week ago when I was shopping, ~40k mile 2019 3s were going for about $42k in SoCal. This week, they seem to be approaching $40k. You can even get a high 40's mileage 2020 3...
  43. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The 100 bps tweet was about the U.K. Don't think U.S. bond market is pricing in that much for November...yet.
  44. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Figuring Morgan Stanley wasn't so pessimistic as to think Tesla would only make 3M cars in the U.S. in the next 8 years, I took a look at the actual Morgan Stanley report. Turns out they are just bad writers and the tweet was garbled. They meant an annual run rate of >3 million cars in the...
  45. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Form 4s are due 2 days after transaction. These were on time.
  46. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Just wanted to drop a heads up to some of you. As one of the chumps (savvy investors?) who bought TSLA after the "funding secured" tweet 4 years ago, I received a notice from my broker today about submitting a claim. It was a pretty easy process to submit everything online (including redacting...
  47. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Good point on taxes. On the proxy statement, Tesla still hasn't filed a preliminary proxy statement (they are confidential only other limited circumstances like a pending merger or acquisition). Seems like they already blew past the 120 day limit given that preliminary statements need to be...
  48. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Two minor, but somewhat interesting to me, unrelated thoughts to add to the Elon sale that I hadn't seen mentioned yet. - Elon has really only raised between $5.5 and $6.5 billion to fund his Twitter purchase. At the very least he owes 23.8% federal capital gains tax and he likely still owes...
  49. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ah. Thanks for that. Gordon expertly avoided FCF for Toyota. Toyota hasn't had annual positive FCF for the last 3 years! (While Tesla has had $7b in cumulative FCF over the past 3 years -- with about half of that coming in 2021).
  50. R

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not sure what you're adjusting (and I literally have no idea what Gordon is doing), but Tesla reported GAAP operating cash flow of $4.585 billion. I hate to say Gordon's post made me think, but it definitely made me look. It's probably not fair to do for a variety of reasons (and I'm probably...