One more for fun... October 1 through today. I'm not arguing that the market reaction is justified, but it's really hard to argue that the market has not reacted negatively to Elon's new job...
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
So, I had an interesting call from a successful small business owner. We hired his firm to do some work for us earlier this year and of course, engaged in discussion around Tesla. TL;DR, today he asked me if it was a good time to buy TSLA
. With appropriate disclaimer (Not investment advice), I gave him a current tutorial on where this company is right now - accelerating on all electric motors (I had to correct myself when I thought “firing on all 4 cylinders). He asked about Elon being a risk - and I said he has installed very strong managers, Zach, Drew etc. I gave him the link to this forum/thread and advised him to read up. My bet is he will buy in.
A single data point, but there are people paying attention.
I continue to DCA.
. With appropriate disclaimer (Not investment advice), I gave him a current tutorial on where this company is right now - accelerating on all electric motors (I had to correct myself when I thought “firing on all 4 cylinders). He asked about Elon being a risk - and I said he has installed very strong managers, Zach, Drew etc. I gave him the link to this forum/thread and advised him to read up. My bet is he will buy in.A single data point, but there are people paying attention.
I continue to DCA.
Ah crap, he's selling more shares today! Gonna finish all of us TSLA investors off!!!
It's probably just some "blue bird" thingy though...
It has been a tough several months for all of us. I'm down 8 figures from the peak. The only consolation has been money I set aside in a CRT (by selling TSLA shares) which has provided me with stable income in retirement. I guess what I have learned is that my portfolio going down millions hasn't killed me. I don't know if or when TSLA will reach 20 million cars, solve FSD, and be worth $3000 per share. But my calculation is that if there is something that is hugely successful in my life (not including my family), it will be Tesla. So there is no way I want to miss out on that, even if there is a risk of failure. So the money I have left in Tesla I'm going to try not to think about and lets see what happens. People should realize that any one thing could bring us back over 200. A tweet from Elon that he has found a CEO for twitter. Or twitter is profitable. Or there is a TSLA stock buyback. Or the IRA has increased demand. Or margins go up despite price decreases due to increased efficiency at Berlin or Austin. Just one substantive piece of good news...
thesmokingman
Active Member
Yea, it's a no brainer that this is a great entry point.So, I had an interesting call from a successful small business owner. We hired his firm to do some work for us earlier this year and of course, engaged in discussion around Tesla. TL;DR, today he asked me if it was a good time to buy TSLA
A single data point, but there are people paying attention.
I continue to DCA.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Haha, a share buyback for a few billion isn't a coup de grâce, buying the hundred million shares that S&P 500 index funds need to sell this week would be a knock-out punch. go priate?
thesmokingman
Active Member
And if some get squeezed along the way, fair play!Haha, a share buyback for a few billion isn't a coup de grâce, buying the hundred million shares that S&P 500 index funds need to sell this week would be a knock-out punch. go priate?
Ya... rebalancing at TD - seems like a hairball all afternoon.As an alternative to your hypothetical example, here's the personal opinion of someone with decades of experience on Wall St.
Alexandra Merz 
on Twitter: "Just a quick reminder: Volume will be crazy today and tomorrow. All ETFs & funds indexed on the S&P 500 need to rebalance quarterly, and now have to sell $TSLA. TSLA stock lost 45% in the last 3 months, S&P only 5%. It is what it is." / Twitter
As long as it’s not a MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT!Haha, a share buyback for a few billion isn't a coup de grâce, buying the hundred million shares that S&P 500 index funds need to sell this week would be a knock-out punch. go priate?
FSDtester#1
Craves Electrolytes
It's 1:53 est... could we get a update from @Curt Renz about how the day may finish?
Asking for the entire Investors Forum...
Asking for the entire Investors Forum...
Is there much doubt since 11AM?
If you think used car loan/least defaults won't be a huge issue in 2023, then read this thread.
Maybe the board hasn't said/done anything because Elon isn't an absentee CEO. Maybe he is still performing all of the duties he needs to.
FSDtester#1
Craves Electrolytes
He has called the Friday closing price within a dollar 3 weeks running right around this time of day.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
No worries! E's passed that test of courage already:
Elon Musk won't sell his NFT song after all - The Verge
Cheers!
Great post.
I'd add that any doubters can check the numbers themselves with SPY (SPY is a very transparent view into ETF holdings). Tesla has indeed already declined as a percentage of the ETF to reflect its decline in market cap..
As of yesterday, it was about 1.24% of the index (SPY: SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust). It has fallen quite a bit and today sits at 10th in the S&P 500.
On September 30, it was 2.34% of the index (doc-viewer).
That computes with the relative market decline. TSLA has underperformed SPY during that period by 4600 bps. Its weight should have declined accordingly.
And if you really want to confirm, just follow up on Tuesday when the ETFs report Monday holdings. As of yesterday, SPY held 30,246,804 shares of TSLA. There will be a bit of noise to subscriptions/redemptions of SPY, but you should be able to see whether SPY was a seller or a buyer today.
I'm not even making my LEAP bets based on the consumer side of Tesla's business. I think there's plenty of tailwind factors that will allow Tesla to lower ASP enough to absorb all of 2023 production while maintaining margins. That alone makes me feel that in 2 years, Tesla will be valued at least in the 900 to 1 billion range.
But I'm betting more on the commercial side of Tesla's business. Ya know, the side of the business that is not based on the whims of consumers demand and product will be in demand whether there's a recession or not. Still no one is talking about this -
Tesla unveils its Megafactory as battery production ramps up
Tesla has unveiled its Megafactory for the first time as part of an hiring effort as it ramps up battery production.
electrek.co
Not only will Megapack margins skyrocket higher due to operational leverage and usage of the equipment but thanks to the IRA, Megapack margins will go into hyperdrive due to the credits Tesla will receive directly. If Tesla is already hitting that daily production rate out of the Lathrop factory, we will start seeing anywhere from 3-4 billion in Energy revenue starting in Q1. Probably won't show up nearly as much in Q4 because it probably take an entire quarter for production to reach it's destinate and be installed (thus recognizing the revenue).
Combine that with at some point in the next 1-2 quarter, I feel FSD monthly subscription rates will take a major step up and Semi ramp hitting 50k annual production rate by 2024, and...yeah, I think 500-600 is possible by beginning of 2025.
I could be crying about the share price today but I'm placing my long terms bet and will live with the results.
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I'm not sure what's worse... Never knowing whether Elon will sell millions of shares on the open market, or knowing that we're destined to rehash the rebalancing question every. single. time.As an alternative to your hypothetical example, here's the personal opinion of someone with decades of experience on Wall St.
Rob explains it like we're 5 in this video. I don't know why Alexandra is getting this wrong after years in the industry, but it seems she is. Stock price increases/decreases alone do not drive any purchases/sales on the rebalance date.
Tesla Giga Texas Inflection Point? + Index Rebalancing, Credit Suisse Price Target
➤ Tesla begins assigning more VINs out of Giga Texas➤ Credit Suisse updates price target on TSLA stock➤ Discussion on Russell 1000 and index rebalancing➤ Upd...
www.youtube.com
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