China Market situation and outlook

[GoTslaGo]

I wonder if Great Wall Motor Co. has plans to introduce EV versions on the Chinese market similar to Geely/Volvo?

Fiat Chrysler says not approached by Great Wall Motor

China's Great Wall sets sights on Jeep

Hey it's Jonas again!

Quote:

Last week, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas attempted to pin a hard value on the brand. He said Jeep, as it stands, is worth the equivalent of about $17.20 per share, and that FCA, including Jeep, was worth about $16.40 a share. At those estimates, Jonas put a value of $33.5 billion on Jeep compared with a value of $32 billion for all of FCA.

End quote.

 

[Out4aDuck]

Hong Kong registrations for June show 8 EV's, half of them Teslas. I expect that potential buyers are waiting for tax incentives to be reinstated.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

China's Great Wall sets sights on Jeep

The folks on wranglerforum are losing their minds at the prospect of having to buy a Chinese Jeep. No issues with buying Italian ones for the last bunch of years I guess.

I'd love to see Tesla snatch up the Jeep brand cheaply in a couple years. Off road vehicles are a natural fit for infinite torque and the ability to charge via solar in the field. Battery tech needs another 4 years to make the pack weight sensible though.

 

[RobStark]

I'd love to see Tesla snatch up the Jeep brand cheaply in a couple years.

The Jeep brand will never go cheaply. Even if auctioned out of bankruptcy court.

Neither will Ram, although perhaps a relative bargain.

BTW: I would also prefer to buy a Dutch-Anglo-Italian-American Jeep than a Sino-American Jeep.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Who knows what ICE brand valuations will do as the transition builds steam. Obviously Fiat thinks Jeeps worth billions, but what about when they hit a point where building out more ICE Jeeps isn't an option and they don't want to take it EV?

We shall see. Not like Elon would ever pay billions for just a name. I just want a Tesla EV similar to a CJ or TJ Wrangler. Is that too much to ask?

 

[RobStark]

Who knows what ICE brand valuations will do as the transition builds steam.

Jeep is a brand. Not an ICE brand.

What Jeep customers love most about Jeep has almost nothing to do with the powertrain, unlike say Porsche, Corvette, or Viper brands.

Off-road ability and the "lifestyle" brand value of outdoors adventure living is the core of the Jeep brand.

Plus, the signature styling.

As the market share increases for BEVs so will the willingness of Jeep's customer base to buy BEVs.

I can see Tesla selling SUVs under the Jeep brand and pickups under the RAM brand.

In any event, I see Chinese auto companies valuing Jeep and RAM at billions of dollars, whether they plan to sell 100% Jeeps as BEVs or partial ICE,PHEVs,and BEVs.

 

[JRP3]

For anyone unaware that is a picture of a Bollinger EV, which seems to be an impressive off road capable vehicle
Bollinger Motors
Built nearby in Central NY

 

[RobStark]

For anyone unaware that is a picture of a Bollinger EV, which seems to be an impressive off road capable vehicle
Bollinger Motors
Built nearby in Central NY

The Bollinger B1 prototypes were designed and built in Central NY.

If, as it likely appears, the B1 is put into mass production it will likely be somewhere in the Midwest with a contract manufacture. The kind of companies that build RVs,UPS-Fed Ex delivery trucks, and government specific vehicles.

 

[Out4aDuck]

It's frustrating that there's so little information available from Tesla's second largest market. At least we get monthly updates from Hong Kong, although they've pretty much killed the EV market. In July, there were only 3 EV's sold. Two of them Teslas.

 

[GoTslaGo]

It's frustrating that there's so little information available from Tesla's second largest market. At least we get monthly updates from Hong Kong, although they've pretty much killed the EV market. In July, there were only 3 EV's sold. Two of them Teslas.

2/3 of the market ain't bad!

 

[EinSV]

It's frustrating that there's so little information available from Tesla's second largest market. At least we get monthly updates from Hong Kong, although they've pretty much killed the EV market. In July, there were only 3 EV's sold. Two of them Teslas.

I agree this is unfortunate. ev-sales.blogspot reports S and X estimates but I don't have much confidence in their Tesla numbers. FWIW, they just issued a report estimating 700 S and 1000 X registered in China in August, which would be a strong performance for the second month of the quarter. On the other hand their July estimates were low -- 160 S and 150 X. EV Sales: China

 

[Out4aDuck]

I agree this is unfortunate. ev-sales.blogspot reports S and X estimates but I don't have much confidence in their Tesla numbers. FWIW, they just issued a report estimating 700 S and 1000 X registered in China in August, which would be a strong performance for the second month of the quarter. On the other hand their July estimates were low -- 160 S and 150 X. EV Sales: China

I think that Jose Pontes does an excellent job with the data he is able to collect. But like you, I'm not going to bet the farm on his China estimates. I've gotten to the point where I only trust the China Revenue numbers included in the quarterly reports. From there you can estimate an average sale price to get a reasonable sales estimate. Did I say estimate enough yet? If not, here are my unit estimates for Q1 and Q2: 4850 and 4450, respectively.

 

[neroden]

It's frustrating that there's so little information available from Tesla's second largest market. At least we get monthly updates from Hong Kong, although they've pretty much killed the EV market. In July, there were only 3 EV's sold. Two of them Teslas.

If you remember, I estimated that the brick-wall removal of the credits in Hong Kong pulled forward demand roughly *18 months*. We should probably see it starting to come back middle of next year.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1335423/rejig-set-for-zero-duty-on-chinese-evs
"Thailand's import duty applied to EVs has a high threshold when there is no FTA in place. For instance, Tesla Inc would have to pay an 80% import duty while Japanese EV automakers are taxed 20%, down from 40%, as a result of the Japan-Thailand Economic Partnership Agreement. Chinese EVs are expected to pay an import duty of 20%"

 

[renim]

Rejig set for 'zero duty' on Chinese EVs
"Thailand's import duty applied to EVs has a high threshold when there is no FTA in place. For instance, Tesla Inc would have to pay an 80% import duty while Japanese EV automakers are taxed 20%, down from 40%, as a result of the Japan-Thailand Economic Partnership Agreement. Chinese EVs are expected to pay an import duty of 20%"

so what charging standard will those Chinese PH/EVs be?

Chinese, Japanese, European or American?
(don't laugh, some of Australia's CCS cars are type 2, some are type 1)

China is building a train line down through Thailand, I would expect Thai to transition to GBT/Chademo over time.

 

[neroden]

I think Tesla's policy of seling adapters for every possible chargeport is proving wise, and I hope they keep it up. I would be unsurprised if BYD eventually did the same thing.

 

[Out4aDuck]

There were 7087 Teslas registered in Europe in Q3. And according to InsideEVs, there were 14780 MS and MX sold in the US. Canada probably adds about 700 more. That leaves about 3350 for Asia, about 1450 less than Q2.

Does that sound right, or is InsideEVs estimating too high for the US?

 

[SwTslaGrl]

A global leader in AI promises Level 4 self-driving cars by 2021
"Chinese internet and AI giant Baidu is partnering with car manufacturer BAIC Group to deliver Level 4 self-driving cars by 2021. The company also expects to have Level 3 technology ready by 2019."
Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021

 

[Fallenone]

Today Tesla is officially compatible with the Chinese State Grid EV chargers along highways. Those are not SC fast, but still DC chargers.

 

[JRP3]

I didn't realize that hadn't already been worked out.