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Just because I have a different opinion about market sentiment on Tesla doesn't mean I'm a troll.

I'm not sure what point you're making. It seems he made a bad call on TSLA, and since he's a wall street analyst, it sort of proves that institutions aren't taking TSLA seriously. It's still a meme stock to them. Anyway, this discussion has nothing to do with which wall street analyst make good...

The guy is a wall street veteran, and he is simple stating what happens behind the scenes.

If the broader market understood TSLA, then the stock would be at $10,000 right now. Institutions acting like apes and riding the FOMO hypetrain isn't new. I don't know if you know this guy, but there's this person named Gordon Johnson who explains this situation in detail. In this video...

Retail and institutional apes, not just retail.

I hear you. I think TSLA's growth is outstanding. What I don't agree on is that the general market understands this right now. This is reasonable. I hope it falls to the 800-range.

It's just one day so far. It took a few months for TSLA to drop from 900 to 550ish. We'll see what tomorrow has in store for us. I agree that big whale apes are going in along with retail apes, but I believe both don't actually care about TSLA's fundamentals and are only in it for the ride...

The stock shot up when the deal was announced and then crashed hard when Elon said there technically isn't a deal. It's pretty obvious this rally has been due to retail ape FOMO and not due to a changing perception of Tesla's valuation. I think some institutional apes also dumped their shares...

I think the Hertz deal is huge for Tesla. Free advertisement and lots of potential customers can try out a Tesla at Hertz. The problem is that I think you're looking at this too logically. Retail apes do not think like you. They think 100k cars = good. Other apes buy TSLA so I Ape buy TSLA. In...

Have to give Gary Black credit about selling at 1100. He's a very smart guy. He also timed $900 correctly.

I'm not a permabear. Long-term, I think TSLA is a good buy. I just don't buy the argument that the market's opinion about them changed. TSLA will always go up and down due to retail FOMO.

Buying the dip is half of it. I successfully sold the top pretty consistently. I made good buys and sells in Q4 2019, March 2020, SP500 Inclusion, Buying at $580 after the drop from $900. Thankfully I didn't HODL and made far more money trading.

I was in an argument with them. Quite a few of them laughed at me and said that we're in new territory. I was right to be skeptical. It's the same thing that happened for the past few years. We will see a crash back down to 1000 and maybe even lower.

There were some ridiculous predictions like $5,000 per share this rally. There was another guy who said that the market is suddenly realizing Tesla's true value, so large dips are out of the question now when Tesla does $15+ EPS in 2022. I said that this rise is due to retail FOMO, not due to...

Most people think Tesla can't expand earnings to the point where it can justify its current valuation. That's why they are bearish on the stock. The recent rise in TSLA is due to retail FOMO, not due to the market changing its opinion on Tesla's fundamentals.

Always be suspicious of any rise in Tesla stock. A large dip is just around the corner.

The recent rise in TSLA stock is due to retail FOMO, not due to some eureka moment where the market suddenly understands Tesla's value. Lots of people were arguing that it was due to the latter and not the former and told me Tesla will never crash again.

I think it will go higher than 1200 eventually, but it'll be AFTER Tesla proves they can expand earnings. Why would it go up when 99% of people think Tesla will fail? Makes no sense.

LOL at the people saying this time, it was different and that the rally was due to the market "understanding" Tesla and not because of the Hertz deal + gamma squeeze. Hope you learned your lesson. The market isn't rational at all and will never 'get' Tesla. I called the top at 1700-2200, but I...

You know, you do make a good point. I was skeptical about TSLA until their Q2 and Q3 reports, which eliminated any doubts about Tesla's ability to increase margins. Maybe this time, it really is different.

I expected it to hit close to $2000 before the dip to $1000. I honestly can't see this going up to $5,000 like some people are predicting. I've had good luck timing TSLA in the past, so I think the $1700-2200 range is the max of this rally before the plunge.

Why DCA now when you know it's going to come back down soon?

Me, too. I have a hunch that 1500-2000 may be the top of this run before we see another dip back to the low 1000s. The sarajah guy on twitter thinks we can hit 5,000, which is just insane. It definitely won't hit that this run.

How much further do you think we'll run before we get a dip?

lol... $20,000+ stock price? C'mon.

In that case, I will buy it at $250. Do you really think the price is just going to keep going up without any large dips? I still think 99% of people don't 'get' Tesla and are just in it for the short-term gains. They will leave when they made a good profit.

I'm glad I held onto my shares. Unlike most people here, I plan on exiting when it approaches $2K and then rebuy at $1K.

Unsure if we've hit the short-term top. Gary sure seems to think so, and he was right last time.

I'm now more confident that Tesla can justify its current valuation even without FSD.

Gotta appease the unions. They're a big voting bloc and a huge donor to the Democratic party.

I agree. It seems likely that Tesla will scale into the 5+ million annual sales category before legacy OEMs get their stuff together. Their ICE sales may collapse before they solved their EV issues, which will lead to many bankruptcies and downsizing.

True, but I also think that the total amount of R&D will also go up as Tesla expands into other categories.

Thanks for this. I'm okay with your production estimates and your gross margin %, though I'm not too confident about your sales figures. I do think Tesla will hit 5-6 million units annually by 2025 or 2026, but wouldn't the vast majority of those sales be with the lower-priced $25K sedan? I...

This is why I'm very bearish on FSD. Elon keeps talking about a "global maximum" on what I assume to be some kind of probability density function. Even if they do get there, there is no guarantee that the maximum be able to drive at an acceptable level for regular consumers and regulators.

I admit that I only got into TSLA after the announcement that it wouldn't be added to the SP500. That was an obvious sign for me to get in before the inclusion. I didn't seriously look into the company until it started hitting the $695 price point on that Friday the funds started buying. I...

Ok, this actually makes some sense. I guess if robotaxis don't come, the FSD add-on would provide Tesla with a pretty significant boost to their margins if FSD continues improving. Tesla's last quarterly report was really impressive at an 11% operating margin. I've read up on manufacturing...

I got into a pretty constructive argument with a Tesla bear on reddit, and he's the one who convinced me to do some simple napkin math assuming very generous sales volumes and margins for Tesla. I understand the argument for robotaxis. The only reason I'm in Tesla right now is that I have a...

Assuming that Tesla will maintain a 30% gross margin and ASP of $35,000. Gross profit will be $210 billion. Maybe profit margin will be 15%, which is outstanding for a mass-market auto company leading to a net income of $105 Billion. I think the company would stop growing then, and so P/E ratio...

I know you're being sarcastic, but I actually read through many of them, and they don't seem to do any kind of analysis that answers my questions.

Hey, guys. I'm new here. I bought TSLA pre-SP500 inclusion at average price of under $400. I sold at $880ish and then rebought at $600. With the marketcap approaching close to $1 trillion, I'm starting to wonder if all of the growth from the automotive side has been priced in already and if...