mspohr
Well-Known Member
More on market share. Looks like Ford, GM, etc can get enough batteries. The problem seems to be that they are having problems making and selling EVs.
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EV Market Share
- Thread starter jhm
- Start date
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Interesting tidbit: Giga BB can start production within 2 hours of receiving permission.
Back to EV market share: it certainly make matters more complex that, while Tesla is supply constrained, the competitors are a combination of demand and supply constrained. I'm not sure battery makers are going to be all that tolerant of demand constrained customers that want to delay shipment of cells. Tesla is willing to buy up any excess supply. If they can't use it in a car, they'll pack it into stationary storage products. It'd be interesting to see if any supply slated for competitor EVs actually winds up in Tesla Megapacks. Just think of the purchasing power this affords Tesla.
I like the $700B auto revenue target, 20M unit in 2030 @ $35k ASP. But I think this APS excludes FSD, which I would expect to have universal uptake by 2030, even if only for the reason that Tesla cars will be sold without steering wheels in 2030. So I think more realistically that an ASP inclusive of FSD is closer to $45k in 2030. Hence, $900B in new auto sales revenue.
Meanwhile, GM is aiming for $90M. Moreover, if GM can't get comparable autonomy, they may just need to forfeit $10k per car over to Tesla to license FSD system.
Suborbital rocket comment applies here.
Lars makes a killer point. Tesla Giga-BB has the potential to produce 2M vehicles per year, and this supply is intended only for Europe. This would make Tesla the top automaker in Europe. Not just to EV maker, but top automakers.
I figure that the European market stays just under 16M new vehicles each year. At 2Mpa, Tesla could command about 12.5% share of the total auto market in Europe.
This is a much bigger play than many of us saw coming.
Just to follow the thread on potential capacity and market share, in the US, Fremont and Giga Texas could reach 4Mpa. As a share of the US domestic market, that's about 23% of just over 17M new vehicles sold. Or more broadly, 4M is about 20% of a 20M North America market.
What potential does Giga Shanghai have? Just 1Mpa? Why not 2Mpa?
Tesla is targeting 20Mpa by 2030. I think Tesla now has Giga campuses with potential for 7 to 8 Mpa. So Tesla may need launch another 6 or more Gigafactories by the end of the decade.
What potential does Giga Shanghai have? Just 1Mpa? Why not 2Mpa?
Tesla is targeting 20Mpa by 2030. I think Tesla now has Giga campuses with potential for 7 to 8 Mpa. So Tesla may need launch another 6 or more Gigafactories by the end of the decade.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
This is a very good chart for thinking about EV market share. It shows both the BEV share of China's auto market and the Tesla's share of the China's BEV market. If you were to multiply both of these, you'd get the Tesla's share of China's auto market.
Firstly, BEV penetration in the Chinese auto market is a thing to behold. It is steadily and exponentially growing. Now at 17%! Up from 5% just 12 months prior, more than tripling in a year! This is super fast grow rate that is hard for any single competitor to both keep up with and sustain for several year. China is getting to the scale where holding onto market share really matters. And Tesla has been able to hold on about 12%.
Secondly, we see that Tesla's share is quite volatile from month to month. We know this is due to the faction of production exported. This is so volatile that it make it hard to know how Tesla is trending over time. To alternatives could improve the graphic/analysis. 1) You could add back the exports. the sum of domestic deliveries plus exports as a percent of China's BEV market would illustrate how strong Tesla is an EV producer. Other EV maker are competing to be global exporters as well. So a better analysis would want to explore the share of EV export market too! In Telsa's case, this additional metric would demonstrate that Tesla has a much more stable share of BEVs made in China. 2) Some data smoothing like share of trailing twelve months would do a much better job of highlighting the trend over time: more signal, less noise. It does appear that the TTM market share for Tesla is about 12%.
Tesla has roughly a 2% share of China's domestic auto market (= 12% * 17%). It would nice to know what share of China's export auto market Tesla has.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Another indicator that the market is shifting away from ICE vehicles... even in the die-hard Porsche world. 
electrek.co
"The Porsche Taycan has been selling incredibly well after great reviews and a popular Cross Turismo variant launched to great fanfare. But in just its second year, it is already besting the iconic 911. According to a Porsche press release, the Taycan has overtaken the 911 globally over the first three quarters of 2021.
"The Porsche Cayenne remains the most successful model, with 62,451 examples delivered, followed by the Macan with 61,944 units, a 12 percent increase. The fully electric Taycan was also extremely popular, with 28,640 cars being delivered to customers. Now in its second full year on the market, it is on a par with the iconic 911 sports car, 27,972 of which were delivered in the first three quarters – an increase of ten percent."
In its first year of production, Porsche sold 20,000 Taycans, so it is doubling year over year. With that growth rate, it wouldn’t be surprising to see its more popular Cayenne and Macan SUVs now in the Taycan’s crosshairs in 2022 and 2023… if those aren’t electrified by then. Porsche recently launched the 2022 Taycan with faster charging, Android Auto, and a pretty in pink color but is still available for under $80,000."
Porsche Taycan EV has now passed iconic 911 in deliveries this year
The Porsche Taycan has been selling incredibly well after great reviews and a popular Cross Turismo variant launched to great...
electrek.co
"The Porsche Taycan has been selling incredibly well after great reviews and a popular Cross Turismo variant launched to great fanfare. But in just its second year, it is already besting the iconic 911. According to a Porsche press release, the Taycan has overtaken the 911 globally over the first three quarters of 2021.
"The Porsche Cayenne remains the most successful model, with 62,451 examples delivered, followed by the Macan with 61,944 units, a 12 percent increase. The fully electric Taycan was also extremely popular, with 28,640 cars being delivered to customers. Now in its second full year on the market, it is on a par with the iconic 911 sports car, 27,972 of which were delivered in the first three quarters – an increase of ten percent."
In its first year of production, Porsche sold 20,000 Taycans, so it is doubling year over year. With that growth rate, it wouldn’t be surprising to see its more popular Cayenne and Macan SUVs now in the Taycan’s crosshairs in 2022 and 2023… if those aren’t electrified by then. Porsche recently launched the 2022 Taycan with faster charging, Android Auto, and a pretty in pink color but is still available for under $80,000."
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Tesla Model 3 Reaches #1 in Germany in 29% Plugin Vehicle Share Market! - CleanTechnica
Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! The German plugin vehicle market scored over 56,000 registrations last month, a 36% improvement year over year (YoY), an amazing performance, especially considering the overall market was down 26%. As a...
cleantechnica.com
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Last edited:
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
another competitive advantage for Tesla... $0 for marketing and $3K for R&D for every car sold.
www.visualcapitalist.com
"It’s often said that word of mouth is the best form of advertising. In the case of Tesla and their rapid ascent to the top of the global automobile business, this might be true. After all, the electric vehicle company somehow manages to spend $0 on advertising year after year, despite the fact that marketing is typically a significant expense line item for most other auto manufacturers.
On the flip side, Tesla is spending an average of $2,984 per car sold on research and development (R&D)—often triple the amount of other traditional automakers. On this per vehicle sold basis, Tesla’s $2,984 in R&D spend per car is far greater than that of other car manufacturers. It’s even higher than the collective amount going to R&D per car from three of the other automakers (Ford, GM, and Chrysler) combined.
When it comes to advertising, the average spend among traditional automakers is $495 per vehicle. And while Tesla technically spends nothing on advertising, the company is a marketing machine that is rated as the world’s fastest growing brand, and Tesla often dominates press mentions and social media chatter."
Comparing Tesla’s Spending on R&D and Marketing Per Car to Other Automakers
How much does Tesla spend on a per car basis on innovation and marketing, compared to more traditional automakers?
www.visualcapitalist.com
"It’s often said that word of mouth is the best form of advertising. In the case of Tesla and their rapid ascent to the top of the global automobile business, this might be true. After all, the electric vehicle company somehow manages to spend $0 on advertising year after year, despite the fact that marketing is typically a significant expense line item for most other auto manufacturers.
On the flip side, Tesla is spending an average of $2,984 per car sold on research and development (R&D)—often triple the amount of other traditional automakers. On this per vehicle sold basis, Tesla’s $2,984 in R&D spend per car is far greater than that of other car manufacturers. It’s even higher than the collective amount going to R&D per car from three of the other automakers (Ford, GM, and Chrysler) combined.
When it comes to advertising, the average spend among traditional automakers is $495 per vehicle. And while Tesla technically spends nothing on advertising, the company is a marketing machine that is rated as the world’s fastest growing brand, and Tesla often dominates press mentions and social media chatter."
mspohr
Well-Known Member
As volume increases, they can amortize RD over more cars.another competitive advantage for Tesla... $0 for marketing and $3K for R&D for every car sold.
Comparing Tesla’s Spending on R&D and Marketing Per Car to Other Automakers
How much does Tesla spend on a per car basis on innovation and marketing, compared to more traditional automakers?
"It’s often said that word of mouth is the best form of advertising. In the case of Tesla and their rapid ascent to the top of the global automobile business, this might be true. After all, the electric vehicle company somehow manages to spend $0 on advertising year after year, despite the fact that marketing is typically a significant expense line item for most other auto manufacturers.
On the flip side, Tesla is spending an average of $2,984 per car sold on research and development (R&D)—often triple the amount of other traditional automakers. On this per vehicle sold basis, Tesla’s $2,984 in R&D spend per car is far greater than that of other car manufacturers. It’s even higher than the collective amount going to R&D per car from three of the other automakers (Ford, GM, and Chrysler) combined.
When it comes to advertising, the average spend among traditional automakers is $495 per vehicle. And while Tesla technically spends nothing on advertising, the company is a marketing machine that is rated as the world’s fastest growing brand, and Tesla often dominates press mentions and social media chatter."
StrongGuy
Member
True, but I also think that the total amount of R&D will also go up as Tesla expands into other categories.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I am remarkably ok with big R&D cost / car for Tesla. It leaves me asking the question - where is the R&D going to come from that the other manufacturers need to be engaged in? They're being outspent pretty handily by their big competitor - where is the money they'll need to catch up? Which ignores the issue of whether they can hire the people they'd need for doing the work.another competitive advantage for Tesla... $0 for marketing and $3K for R&D for every car sold.
Comparing Tesla’s Spending on R&D and Marketing Per Car to Other Automakers
How much does Tesla spend on a per car basis on innovation and marketing, compared to more traditional automakers?
"It’s often said that word of mouth is the best form of advertising. In the case of Tesla and their rapid ascent to the top of the global automobile business, this might be true. After all, the electric vehicle company somehow manages to spend $0 on advertising year after year, despite the fact that marketing is typically a significant expense line item for most other auto manufacturers.
On the flip side, Tesla is spending an average of $2,984 per car sold on research and development (R&D)—often triple the amount of other traditional automakers. On this per vehicle sold basis, Tesla’s $2,984 in R&D spend per car is far greater than that of other car manufacturers. It’s even higher than the collective amount going to R&D per car from three of the other automakers (Ford, GM, and Chrysler) combined.
When it comes to advertising, the average spend among traditional automakers is $495 per vehicle. And while Tesla technically spends nothing on advertising, the company is a marketing machine that is rated as the world’s fastest growing brand, and Tesla often dominates press mentions and social media chatter."
That big R&D budget is another reason I see Tesla staying ahead of the rest of the pack
mspohr
Well-Known Member
The ICEmakers are already deep in debt ($100 billion apiece). ICE car sales are falling. They aren't making a profit on their EVs. They are 5-10 years behind. They don't have EV expertise.
It doesn't look good.
StrongGuy
Member
I agree. It seems likely that Tesla will scale into the 5+ million annual sales category before legacy OEMs get their stuff together. Their ICE sales may collapse before they solved their EV issues, which will lead to many bankruptcies and downsizing.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
I agree that they will increase RD for new products. They won't be investing much in existing products.. Just ramp up production. (They do seem to be investing in streamlining production. Gigapress, etc.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Non-recourse debt from OEMs financial arms on the cars themselves have no effect on operations.
Non-profitable and low profit ICE car sales are falling. Last month ATP on new cars is over $45k in the USA. I imagine it is the same in Europe and Asia. If you can't make all the cars you want because of chip,labor, and whatever else shortage you prioritize making the most profitable cars.
They are making profits on their EVs. Many OEMs have expertise on EVs. Having less expertise than Tesla does not mean zero.
Toyota makes the best mass market mainstream ICEv and they are the low cost producer. They don't have 100% ICEv market share. They have 10%.
Tesla can have objectively the best BEVs and be the low cost producer doesn't mean they will have 50% Plus market share. There will be others making different BEVs for different taste.
Elon Musk himselfs projects 25% automotive market share for Tesla. Because manufacturing is hard. And Elon tends to be optimistic.
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