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FWIW, I'm still very positive on 12.x so far. I've been letting it drive a ton. I can nitpick lots of minor issues but bottom line is it's safe, it hasn't curbed my wheels, and it will eventually get me there. The closest thing I've seen to wheel damage is it ignoring common potholes on the...

Couldn't they train a very small net to detect for the haze and other such camera issues and then report the issue on screen and recommend servicing?

I think robotaxi reveal will be a more mini-bus-shaped vehicle built on the same platform and technology as the Model 2. Probably just a prototype one-off build. I think that, software-wise, they're still aiming to give all the AP3+ vehicles L3-4 capabilities first. To be clear, by L3 I mean...

So, I think the "head fake" maneuver for lane changes has been documented already: sometimes when it wants to change lanes in front of an oncoming car that's getting close, it noses over the line just a little and right back, apparently to gauge their reaction. If they back off, it goes and...

Yeah, I think in hindsight it's pretty clear that Cybertruck was a bad idea all around. It doesn't really live up to its hype and it took way too many resources away from other more-important goals (like Model 2 + Robotaxi, further battery developments, software investment in FSD, etc). It...

Yup. I have a Model Y that's technically a "2022" year-model. It was delivered to me as a new vehicle in Dec '21, and it has the older ARM chip (MCU 2). As a new customer, I had no idea about these details of course, or I would've rejected it and waited on an AMD model. The car is only ~2.5...

On the sub-debate about reaction times (context: I used to be a track junkie at instructing at DE events): What I heard in various classrooms when I was coming into that world was along the lines of roughly ~200ms for a conscious decision loop and action by someone that's fully focused on the...

Where does that figure come from? Most disengagements aren't safety-critical anyways, in my experience. Mostly comfort issues, not getting honked at, or missing a turn which would then add travel time on re-route. None of those things really have to be perfect to get the job done in a basic...

Honestly, I think V12 with ASS/Banish, a few more rounds of input data, and a few tweaks (e.g. don't take off like a rocket from every stop sign, etc) is already pretty close to an L3/4 candidate if they want to go there. Maybe not L5 yet. It doesn't always do things the optimal way, or the way...

Had a second, longer drive on 12.3 just now, all non-highway. Still very impressed overall. Aced a whole lot of complex decisions in traffic at intersections. So far it has especially been absolutely killer at every 4-way and 2-way stop intersection I've tried: it knows when to go and is...

I finally got 12.3 (from 11.4.9) late last night. HW3 MY. Took it for a spin this morning, neighborhood grocery run, etc. I am thoroughly impressed so far. Overall, it's amazing and a huge step change from 11. Very natural control inputs, very human-like decision making in complex scenarios...

Yeah but even then, in the past there's been a wavy pattern to it. It will ramp up for a couple days, drop off for a day, then ramp harder for another day or two, then off a day or two, then go all out, or something like that. I think we're now in the first dip.

Just to put something more concrete into this neverending debate, in the hopes of fostering some understanding: Even if Tesla hypothetically disabled all driver monitoring on our current FSDb 11.x (or a driver perfectly defeated all the monitoring), there are definitely situations that occur...

I actually think that argument has merit. Not only are all the human-built objects in our world designed by and for humans, but you can even stretch to the slightly-more-tenuous argument that humans and the natural world co-evolved, making the human form more uniquely-suitable (than, say, a...

I still complain by voice on important disengagements. I doubt every single one is listened to by a human, but I bet somewhere in their sea of metrics, they're at least giving more weight to disengagements that were voice-tagged at all, and who knows maybe they count swear words or something.

Oh and another interesting 11.4.9 behavioral change from yesterday: I was traveling down a road in a 50mph section at 55 (normal traffic speed, with +10% in my settings matching). There was a posted speed limit change down to 30mph. Most of the traffic ahead of me pretty much ignored the...

Got 5.1 here (from .2, on HW3, so that matches what others are reporting). Back to FSDb things though: I had noted 11.4.9's increased confidence earlier, but yesterday it misplaced its confidence twice! At two distinct intersections now I've had it take a left aggressively without as much...

I came from 11.4.7.3 to 2023.44.30.2 on my MYLR (USS) today. There are definitely some subtle improvements, but a lot of basic things are still regressions vs 11.3.6 (e.g. poor handling of narrow two ways, random stupid lane changes that make no sense, including into short-deadline turn lanes...

At least as recently as 2022 (and perhaps later as well), and certainly in earlier years, Tesla were still making the case to consumers, in marketing for buying the FSD option, that full autonomy was "coming soon". Sales advisors were pushing the same narrative even harder. The exorbitant and...

The open question now is really about the new 3d park assist: it seems so far to be only going to USS-less cars, but it may or may not also be the case that they're not gonna roll that out to MCU2 Atom cars (for lack of GPU perf for the visualization). I have one of the last few of those (model...

The "whole-of-nation system" reference makes me think of Great Leap Forward - Wikipedia . When a central authority decides to re-task a whole country towards a common purpose from the top down, the result is usually misery. If China wants to succeed on the world stage in the long term, they...

While the argument from the Mach-E guy is silly (there clearly is an intentional safety reason Tesla slows down to closer match with nearby lanes, whether you agree with it or not!), I do want to point out that true phantom braking does still exist in FSDb in some scenarios. It's been a long...

If they can't ever get "real FSD" working on HW3, it's going to be a *sugar*-show for them no matter what they do. Transfers will be one of their easiest options to satisfy those customers (vs refunds or hardware upgrades).

And Tesla's probably just trying to keep kicking the can down the road and buy time. That's their basic game-plan: the more time they buy, eventually v13 of FSD or whatever will be so amazing that it's clearly safer and superior, and all the autopilot/tacc stuff can switch to using it as well...

Yeah the timing of the transition is everything. I could imagine someone coming up with such an ODD that worked along the lines of: when the rain/construction/whatever is imminent, it does some beeps/warnings and gives maybe ~5-10 seconds to take over gracefully while it's already beginning to...

Am I reading this right? Your charts seem to imply that, in practice at highway speeds on a flat surface, the range extender actually reduces range? I guess it could still be useful for slower driving (heavy loads or city driving?), or to have extra kWh on hand for something else (like power...

... For me it's been pretty safe in those scenarios, even with light precip and/or at night. I think the bigger issue with such an ODD is how you safely switch out of it when the conditions are no longer met. You don't want it doing a safety stop on the shoulder or whatever, but you need the...

[... with the image of the overlapping views ...] The difference is that each of the cameras comes from a fixed point of view on the car, while a human's head can move. When you think about obstructions (like the fence example with pics just earlier in this thread). There will always be...

My educated guess would be that they're aspiring to release V12 around Xmas, at least to the 11.4.7 crowd, maybe everyone, and 11.4.8 is their backup plan if they can't pull it off.

Just chiming in that I also think the primary issue here is steering wheel "disengagement" dropping back to TACC-only. That is super confusing and dangerous. The right answer, design-wise, is that all disengagements, by any method, should cancel all of TACC/Autosteer/Autopilot/FSDb. The...

I don't necessarily mind that it drives in the center, I care about how it behaves when it does so: 1. It waits too late to move over for oncoming traffic. The goal is not "barely dodge the oncoming car", the goal should be "move over courteously way earlier, so the other driver doesn't freak...

Lol at "the concept of lanes is only loosely built in". That is very obvious every time I navigate well-marked multi-lane roads.

Yeah, Spot actually is pretty cool, but they're not humanoid, and based on some quick googling: they've sold on the order of 1K of them, and they cost ~$75K. I don't think it will ever be comparable to Optimus potential, but I guess you never know!

Comparing the relatively low-key skills that Optimus has shown off so far to other "research" isn't really a valid comparison. Everyone else is really just doing it as a research project. If they're lucky, they'll finally get one working example of a better-than-Optimus robot engineered, and...

And also: this wouldn't be that difficult or expensive to retrofit. You could keep the same connectors, the same data rate, the same resolution, etc. Just do a hardware swap of the repeater camera unit. Offer it to FSD purchasers for free, charge some minimal fee to cover camera+labor costs...

11.3.6 was the best version I ever used. It was basically Peak FSD, so far. All 11.4.x has been a regression so far, even if it also happened to improve a few minor things. I think this is just part of the process, though. You have to expect regressive cycles between major improvements, as...

IMHO, if UAW substantially "wins" their negotiations, it will basically doom all their jobs in the long run. The game is on, and right now it's a global competition between the likes of Tesla and BYD, and legacy automakers around the world are basically in a fight to stay alive at all in the...

Come to think of it: a lot of the US probably had very few rainy days over the summer with all this heat dome madness. Perhaps the explanation for the auto-wiper problem is that Tesla has been biasing towards very recent/new training data, and there's been too little rain in the recent training...

I'd counter-argue that not all failures need to mean there's an incident. It would be acceptable, especially in the L3-4 case where there's a capable driver who's just reading a book or whatever, that some of the F's you're including in your MTBF are of the kind where the system may not be...

Yeah I just got 11.4.7 too. Recalibrated and did one short drive. Seemed mostly about like 11.4.4, same issues. Some corners were smoother, and I didn't catch any egregious lane mistakes yet in one short drive, but otherwise roughly in the same ballpark as 11.4.4. The repeater cam view on...

Context: 11.4.4 has been terrible on the main road of my neighborhood on every drive to date, for however long we've all been on this *sugar* version, whereas 11.3.6 was pretty decent at it. Two way, 35mph, no stripe or divider. Tons of phantom braking for no observable reason (not panic stop...

I'm already past the 50K mile (non-drivetrain) warranty period on my 22 MYLR that I paid 10K for FSD on 21 months ago, and the feature is still not delivered. I have no intent to trade in my car anytime soon (maybe closer to the 100k mark). Does me no good. I wouldn't have bought the package...

I'll share another frustration while I'm venting here, about narrow two-way roads (often with no painted divider) in the <=35mph range. This is not new to 11.4, but it's something 11.3.6 seemed to improve a bit, and then 11.4.2 regressed it back to worse than I've seen in a while. Basically...

I'm starting to take a pretty negative view of 11.4.2, actually. For me, 11.3.6 was a pretty big milestone. It still had a lot of old annoyances (e.g. lane choice vs upcoming nav directions, issues taking off promptly at the right time from a stop sign, etc), but it was markedly better than...

Really, I think the lane changes in "assertive" are pretty ok on highways around me in general, but: 1. When traffic gets thick (think everyone going <15mph on a 75mph road due to traffic), I have to flip on "minimize lane changes" so that it doesn't act like an impatient asshole pointlessly...

While we're on the general topic of the maps: in the long run, Tesla will probably always have to rely on some level of mapping (of at least "medium" definition per above). I think it's important that they pursue map-less, vision-based autonomy: it's the harder problem, and it's more general...

I think that, eventually, they'll use the driver monitoring to engage AP instead of just disengage. If the manual driver seems incapacitated and ignores repeated screen and audio warnings, have AP take over and park it somewhere safe nearby, engage hazards, and call for help.

I think 11.3 has been a massive improvement, FWIW. It's not good enough yet, but at this point I'm starting to believe that autonomy will be possible. My disengagements have gone way down since the 10.x days. I get a lot of long mixed highway/city drives with zero to minimal disengagements now...

I haven't confirmed it myself, but based on some reports like these and some edge cases I've seen in my car, I'm starting to suspect that whether your eyes are moving may be a factor. An attentive driver is at least shifting their eyeballs constantly (scanning mirrors, etc), and often moving...

I'll add a positive note: I had a mostly-city-streets drive today on 11.3.4 in fairly heavy traffic (two lanes each way plus a mixed-use left-turn lane in the middle, ~45mph road where everyone drives 55). Twice in the space of about 1/2 mile, I had other cars make completely bone-headed moves...