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  1. jhm

    Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

    I love how the first two quarters of 2023 surpassed the total for 2022. Would love to see H1 2024 surpass 2023.
  2. jhm

    Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

    Yeah, I think there is something to this. Have enough solar and wind capacity that there is as a daily surplus. Then highly adaptive load like robotaxis consume when power is very cheap. I have often thought of electrolyzers playing this sort of role. We'll need green hydrogen (and...
  3. jhm

    Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot

    I don't like seeing humans kick and push humanoid robots. I would not want bots to learn to reciprocate such behavior. But maybe Bots could kick each other's butts.
  4. jhm

    Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

    The point of my argument was that the market potential is so huge that saturation is not a limitation for quite a while. I think the auto market saturates much sooner. Basically once EVs are more than half the new auto market, exponential growth will be over. I think this will be about 2027. The...
  5. jhm

    Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

    Yes, that is the the basic framing. But I'm questioning whether a 100-hr battery effectively solves that problem. The length of time that it takes to fully recharge such a battery interferes with its availability as fully charged. Then at the precise moments that it is needed, it's low power...
  6. jhm

    Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

    https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a42532492/iron-air-battery-energy-storage/ I've been trying to understand the point of 100-hour batteries. This article points out that this iron-air batteries could be 10X cheaper than li-ion batteries. I assume that is the price per MWh energy...
  7. jhm

    Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot

    Man, I was about to post that. I think this is a pretty cool breakthrough. It's not the complexity of the task here that matters, but the mode of learning. We want bots to be able to observe stuff (video in) and then figure out how to replicate it. One small step toward self-learning. Human...
  8. jhm

    Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

    Total genaration in 2022 was 28,661TWh. 28,661TWh/365/24h = 3.27 TW. https://ourworldindata.org/electricity-mix Somehow, I had misremembered the 3.55TW figure.
  9. jhm

    Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

    Ah yes! It's still 2023, right?
  10. jhm

    Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

    On market size: Conservatively, getting to net zero emissions will require 4 hours of battery storage. Many people will argue the need is much greater from 8 hours to 90 day! But generally those who are most opposed to renewable energy want people to believe the battery requirement is super...
  11. jhm

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    This is quite impressive. It seems that more value could be extracted from this 3GW 550 mile HVDC transmission line by adding batteries and solar to the mix. Without this the wind is generating about 30 GWh per day (36% capacity factor assumed), through a line that could deliver upto 72 GWh...
  12. jhm

    Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot

    Do you think Nvidia chips are a low margin business? The AI boom is driving up insatiable demand. What I am suggesting about the Bots component market is that critical hardware will also be in very high demand. Critical components will not be mere commodities for another 10 years. For one...
  13. jhm

    Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot

    CEO of Figure AI sees AI capabilities coming faster than hardware. 2024 will be a big year for humanoid robots. Figure and others will be eager to aquire hardware to match the AI.
  14. jhm

    Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot

    Ok, if you think Tesla will be compute constrained for the next three years that definitely would slow a lot of progress in the Bot space. It would actually worry me that Tesla could fall behind and miss out. From my perspective there is a massive ecosystem that Tesla wants to be a part of.
  15. jhm

    Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot

    You don't see Tesla selling Dojo compute?
  16. jhm

    Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot

    I am specifically challenging this business model. On problem with ramping up a car is that one missing component can halt production. Selling parts a la carte, you can sell all you can make without being slowed by the least available part.
  17. jhm

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The money is in supplying the parts along with NN components as drivers. Yes, the Bots can do their own final assembly, maintenance and upgrades!
  18. jhm

    Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot

    For me personally Optimus has been a sleeper issue. I've also been distracted with my seminary studies. But now with the O2, I am waking up to the potential. So pardon my delay in catching up with this thread. I'd like to start sharing some of my emerging perspectives. There is a gathering...
  19. jhm

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I am becoming bullish on Optimus 2. This appears ready for production. Naturally, the first tasks for O2 will be to build O2. The ramp could be slow because it is more than just ramping up production but training and advancing the product itself, so that human participation in production is...
  20. jhm

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Will TeslaBot scale up before Robotaxi? Apologies if this has already been answered here.
  21. jhm

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Only-Half-of-All-Ford-Dealers-Agree-to-Sell-EVs-Next-Year.html Half of Ford dealers refuse to sell BEV vehicles. Tesla's secret weapon? Not having dealers.
  22. jhm

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    That's pretty cool! There are systems that automatically track the sun, but two manual adjustments per year seems to provide substantial boost. It makes sense that around the equinoxes you are somewhat indifferent with low consumption, but near the two solstices you get a 30 degree difference in...
  23. jhm

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Oh no, looks like Cybertruck's got competition.
  24. jhm

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    Well, 2017 still stands as the ICE peak. ICE sales continuing to fall since 2020. They never rebounded! And it looks like they never will. In 5 year, ICE has fallen 29% from 83 million to 59 million. https://x.com/colinmckerrache/status/1732063169957282216?s=20
  25. jhm

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    This is my attempt to estimate what mix of wind and solar would best match current demand for fossil generation (gas, coal, oil). I'm trying to get the annual balancing right. So I've averaged monthly generation of fossil, solar and wind from 2021-2022. Note the annual generation was 2,409 TWh...
  26. jhm

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    Obviously near the equator v-NS would have little value, but seasonal balancing is not needed there. Rather seasonality is stronger as you move closer to the poles. Conversely, v-EW would be pretty awesome for extending the solar day. Similarly, in more temperate latitudes, v-EW is useful...
  27. jhm

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What's a fair interpretation of what the rear wheels are doing here? Might turning the rear wheels going into a frontal crash help redirect forces in collision? That is, is this intentional? Or is the axle breaking unintentionally?
  28. jhm

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yeah, I'm not eager to embrace that. Swapping out 50 kWh at a time does not make sense to me, but if you need extra capacity for a week or or month, it can be worth renting it.
  29. jhm

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666955222000211 I'm not sure if we've discussed vertical bifacial solar before, but I think it is quite relevant to the Seba idea of superabundant power. This study compares 3 different ways of orienting solar panel. I-S, inclined south...
  30. jhm

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I do like that the range extender need not complicate the manufacture of the CT. They don't even need to be made in the same factory or delivered with the vehicle. Fewer factory options is better for high volume production.
  31. jhm

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I like the third party idea. Rental companies can compete with each other on cost and convenience. They also can buy and sell range extenders. Such a secondary market can lower the financial risk to buyers.
  32. jhm

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Will Tesla be renting out range extenders? Adding $16k to a 7% 60-month loan is $320/month. This is steep if you only need the extra range for a couple of months each year. Renting at $20/day plus $100 install/uninstall fee would be a pretty good deal for someone with occasional need.
  33. jhm

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Stock is starting to drop on cue. Edit, eh, not so bad, holding at $240.
  34. jhm

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Cybertruck delivers frozen yogurt.
  35. jhm

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    https://x.com/EIAgov/status/1730230222719418468?s=20 Chart of the Day. Petroleum is becoming more than half of US carbon emissions. Sure, we need to keep shutting down coal plants, but we also need to crush petroleum emissions with EVs and we need to shrink gas emissions with more solar, wind...
  36. jhm

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Suitable music for this image below. Enjoy.
  37. jhm

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm inspired to open my own frozen yogurt shop. I even have a great name for it. Thanks, Elon!
  38. jhm

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So how does GM look as a short target? It's easy to view this "return of capital" as a desperate attempt to extract cash before insolvency sets in. From our perspective, any automaker that cannot make the transition to profitable EV making will not be a going concern for long. However, many...
  39. jhm

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Oh my God, Becky, look at her
  40. jhm

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    Here's something I've been thinking about lately. Does nuclear power actually reduce the carbon intensity of the global economy. Consider the following stats about 30-year change from 1991 to 2021: Global Real GDP: up 138.6% Global Power Generation: up 131.3% Global Nuclear Pwr Gen: up 30.7%...
  41. jhm

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No. He's dead. I'm in a seminary, not a cemetery.
  42. jhm

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Hmm, there's green on the TSLA chart and it's going up. Is this normal?
  43. jhm

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    https://x.com/CleanPowerDave/status/1729240122489471205?s=20 Yes, let's triple RE generation by 2030. I think this is pretty much in line with 2023 Investor Day presentation.
  44. jhm

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Slams-IEA-over-Moment-of-Truth-for-Oil.html Diplomacy!!! Ha, ha. If OPEC really believes the CCS will pay off big time, they are free to invest their own money in it. It's a portion of the 2.5% of investments outside of fossil fuels. Go...
  45. jhm

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    Nice. I'm not sure where that poster gets his power. There are different retailers in the CAISO. Also can't rule out that a random poster might be confused or poorly informed.
  46. jhm

    The Resource Angle

    I wonder if Tesla might be in a position to stock up. Will the lithium refinery have much storage capacity? Not only might this be a good trade for Tesla (hedging future spikes in lithium), but it can give lithium miners a little more confidence developing resources. That is, it helps avoid...
  47. jhm

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    https://x.com/swhess15/status/1728970635609833863?s=20 This is an interesting exchange. Clearly there is enough solar in California to drive wholesale power prices down to around $0/MWh. Notice a lot of gas keeps generating (at a marginal loss) through the sunny day. I suspect this is so they...