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  1. H

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    It's really hard to predict the future. Tony Seba studies market disruption for a living and, in general, once a new set of integrative technologies matures enough to disrupt an existing market - the transition generally occurs within 10-20 years. If we look back at the iPhone introduction in...
  2. H

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    I think it remains to be seen whether Vision Only will provide enough "visibility" for autonomous vehicles - especially with edge cases in moderate to heavy inclement weather are taken into account. Even FSD v12.3.4 still complains a LOT during moderate to heavy rain for example - and on a few...
  3. H

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    The Limiting Factor posted a lengthy video about this exact topic for anyone interested in consuming the content: Long story short, it won't be stainless steel. It'll be a painted surface and/or plastic exterior best estimate.
  4. H

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    Given they also announced the start of the rideshare network using manned vehicles just like Uber/Lyft today, the more Tesla vehicles (as well as any third parties who buy the FSD licensing that was also discussed) will be on the road to support the supervised rideshare network until...
  5. H

    This Latest Attempt to Force FSD Upon Everyone is Hurting the FSD Cause More Than Helping

    Yes - IME that audio warning tones are sometimes due to a momentary flash of "toll booth detected" on the screen - it only flashes very briefly - then disappears. Here's the kicker - there's no toll booth anywhere when this happens. Ironically, when actually approaching toll booths, I've yet...
  6. H

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    Agreed - given Tesla is a $100bb+ company - and supposedly has some of the best engineering talent on the planet (so they claim repeatedly), it would seem to be to be feasible to do more than one thing at a time - and do it well. There's no good reason not to do both/and. Overall, as is...
  7. H

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    Precisely, I made the exact same observation earlier in this thread. All of the Tesla robotaxi talk is just that, talk. Because there is not one single driverless Tesla vehicle certified to be on the roads today. Zero, not one. It's all theory, yet to be proven. Will we see a true driverless...
  8. H

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    Musk has persistently indicated that unless FSD is materially better than human drivers - typically at least twice as safe and up to a 10x factor ideally - then it's unlikely FSD will take hold and it's unlikely that regulatory approvals will be granted for autonomous driving. It's not enough...
  9. H

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    Rumor mill says the robotaxi will be using HW5 and will also use updated Tesla radar units (like HW4 does). As much as Musk maintains that FSD must be VO (Vision Only), for a true L4/L5 system, I highly doubt this will ever work because humans have inherent limitations and difficulties...
  10. H

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    IMHO what we finally now have with FSD(s) is an official non-beta L2 ADAS system. The next goal should, in turn, logically, be an L3 ADAS system. Jumping up to L4/L5 is likely going to take several years - regardless of what anyone thinks/says. Whether it's due to regulatory hurdles, lawsuits...
  11. H

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    I'm assuming your comment was in jest - but just in case it's not - SpaceX is a completely separate entity/company - with it's own distinct balance sheet and finances/funding. Tesla monies have no bearing on SpaceX in any way.
  12. H

    All US Cars capable of FSD will be enabled for one month trial this week

    That's your software version - not your FSD version - if you click on the Release Notes - you'll see you have FSD 12.3.4 on 2024.3.15.
  13. H

    This Latest Attempt to Force FSD Upon Everyone is Hurting the FSD Cause More Than Helping

    Yeah - I think they removed the stop sign/light beta function when using TACC unfortunately.
  14. H

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    It's a huge bet without any doubt - and with a lot of variables and unknowns in play without any doubt. Purportedly Musk has cancelled the NV9 program - the M2 - and prioritized a huge datacenter build in GigaAustin that he is pushing to have complete by end of August - tied to the robotaxi...
  15. H

    This Latest Attempt to Force FSD Upon Everyone is Hurting the FSD Cause More Than Helping

    IIRC you can simply disable FSD and TACC/Autosteer will become available again.
  16. H

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    I agree. FSD 12.3.3 still has issues in any kind of inclement weather - especially heavy rain/snow for example - we experienced a sudden downpour using 12.3.3 the other day and the system disengaged itself after slowing down several times to the point where I would have had to disengage it...
  17. H

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    I'm not knowledgeable about the differences between Waymo and Tesla FSD. What I can say is that Waymo has had driverless vehicles certified and legally allowed on roads within certain geofenced areas for many years now - approved to do so by the local authorities within those zones. Tesla, at...
  18. H

    FSD 12.3 today - utter failure!

    I almost always end up using the "minimize lane changes" feature when using FSD 12.3.3 - it's still lane change happy same as 11.4.9 was - if not moreso/worse so far. We're taking a 140 mile each way long weekend trip starting tomorrow afternoon during which I plan to utilize FSD 12.3.3 as much...
  19. H

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    It's a matter of ROI. The heavy urban centers are where rideshare penetration is the highest. That's where the initial focus will be - as is clearly evidenced by the job postings that are all in large urban areas. I'm not saying this will be 100% focused on large urban areas - but the lion's...
  20. H

    Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

    It will be manned robotaxies for quite a while and initially only in geofenced heavy urban centers. It will likely be years before any actual true robotaxi comes to market. Tesla has a bunch of these JDs posted this week: These JDs are posted in major urban areas, along with ADAS test...
  21. H

    FSD 12.3.3 Phantom braking

    The highway stack is still v11.4.9 based. Only city streets is end to end AI today. At some point the highway stack may become end to end AI based as well, but that’s not the case today. This is why the “auto max” speed setting is only available off highway - that feature only exists within...
  22. H

    New FSD v12 automatic speed setting works pretty well

    FSD12 isn’t using HW4 yet - its running HW3 emulation mode.
  23. H

    New FSD v12 automatic speed setting works pretty well

    I’m running 12.3.3 and when auto-offset is on and I hit the go pedal - the car accelerates just like it always does when using FSD anywhere else, and it will more often than not maintain the higher speed unless there is a reason not to do so based upon the camera data stream.
  24. H

    New FSD v12 automatic speed setting works pretty well

    Just hit the go pedal when this happens - IME it'll maintain your higher speed after you let off the go pedal at least under most circumstances - and since it's part of the learning AI stack - it should "remember" what you teach it over time.
  25. H

    New FSD v12 automatic speed setting works pretty well

    Yep that's my understanding as well. While the stacks have been combined - the highway stack is still not end-to-end AI - only the City Streets stack is using full AI. The "auto max" feature is tied specifically to the full AI stack. Hopefully at some point the highway stack will become full...
  26. H

    500 mile range? LOL

    What $4k tax incentive are you referring to? If you're referring to the IRA used EV tax credit - the maximum MSRP for a used BEV for this incentive is $25k - so that's not going to apply...
  27. H

    Silverado EV

    AFAIK none of the Ultium packs in the trucks use LFP - they use NCA/NMC packs - the LFPs don't have the energy density needed for larger vehicles.
  28. H

    500 mile range? LOL

    The used EV tax credit also has a maximum price of $25k for the vehicle. This is great for the cheaper Nissan Leafs/Chevy Volt/Bolts of the world, but most used one owner Tesla's aren't sold for under $25k - at least not yet. Several of the recent Hertz Tesla EVs fell under this price point -...
  29. H

    500 mile range? LOL

    This is a point that many who don't ever tow anything don't really get. Having the charge port on the right or left rear is the worst location for towing. That's why Rivian's towing vehicles (R1T/R1S) locate their charge ports on the front left. While pull-through chargers are wonderful, they...
  30. H

    FSD 12.3 today - utter failure!

    Try the Chill/Aggressive settings and see if it makes any difference. I've definitely noticed a difference in how FSD behaves when making these changes. When you say it's entering an intersection - like what exactly is it doing? Is it waiting to make an unprotected left hand turn for example...
  31. H

    FSD 12.3 today - utter failure!

    What setting were you using? Chill, Average or Assertive/Aggressive? IME these choices make a big difference. Sounds like you were in Chill mode. Set it to Assertive/Aggressive - and choose the new "auto max" setting for speed.
  32. H

    When will trial start rolling out?

    I just updated to 2024.3.6 this morning - guess I gotta wait until I receive this email before I will be eligible for the free 30 day FSD trial.
  33. H

    Deliveries of $80k X?

    Yes, here's the exact statement from Tesla: "The Model X will qualify depending on how you build it. As long as the original build is under 80k it qualifies. So it must be a 5 seater with a standard wheel, black interior and stealth exterior. Does this help?" So basically they will provide a...
  34. H

    Ford says owners can start using superchargers today (Feb 29)

    Tesla has always clearly indicated that their mission is to accelerate the transition to renewable energy and a big part of that is transitioning the transportation fleet to electric vehicles as quickly as possible. Anyone who understands the mission and the three master plans that have clearly...
  35. H

    Deliveries of $80k X?

    Yeah I figured as much, just wanted to confirm. I texted my Tesla rep but he has yet to provide a clear answer. Thanks for posting this information.
  36. H

    Ford says owners can start using superchargers today (Feb 29)

    IMHO Tesla’s primary mission is to accelerate the transition to renewable energy worldwide. Therefore Tesla is primarily a renewable energy company that, for now, happens to build BEVs. The energy side of the business - megapacks, solar and charging networks - has been slower to ramp in...
  37. H

    Deliveries of $80k X?

    So with the new Tesla incentive announced yesterday, I’m assuming the only MX that qualifies for the federal tax credit is still the base model with the default gray and black interior because it’s based on the MSRP of the vehicle correct? Or is Tesla somehow able to qualify MXs with upgraded...
  38. H

    Out of Spec doing a Cybertruck vs. R1T vs. Lightning vs. Silverado EV cross country race. Who wins?

    Kyle posted a couple of times that they have had to use V2 chargers on their route as there are no V3 chargers available within range.
  39. H

    Cybertruck is a scam.

    Chances are the driver didn't air down the tires and stick to best practices when driving on the beach. I've seen so many people over the years not air down their tires and if the sand is "hard" then it's typically not a real problem - but in soft sand it can become a real problem. I didn't...
  40. H

    Yet another 100% charging question

    Just use the Off Peak charging feature in the app and set the Off-Peak end time to when you're going to leave in the AM - this will calculate the required charge time to go up to 100% such that it'll complete the charging session shortly before your scheduled leave time and eliminate the need to...
  41. H

    Cybertruck is a scam.

    Last I checked Rivian is debuting an R2S tomorrow - no plans to announce or introduce any R2T yet. This is no different than any other manufacturer that has a larger more expensive SUV at a higher price point vs a smaller less expensive SUV at a lower price point. One is meant to be lower...
  42. H

    Ford says owners can start using superchargers today (Feb 29)

    You can but you may have to pay for the $12.99 monthly membership charging plan for your non-Tesla EV. That said, I'm not sure if existing Tesla owners who also happen to own a non-Tesla EV would have to subscribe to this plan to receive the best SC charging rates - or if this would be a...
  43. H

    Ford says owners can start using superchargers today (Feb 29)

    Actually it does - if the internal cabling to the battery pack has to be twice as long then it's twice as expensive - costs like this add up. As Elon is fond of saying - the best part is no part - so if locating the CT port 2.5 feet away from the back right corner saves $$$ - then that's...
  44. H

    Ford says owners can start using superchargers today (Feb 29)

    For longer wheelbase vehicles it’s not feasible to mount the charge port all the way to the rear. The CT charge port is not in this location either. It’s 2.5 feet away from this location over top of the rear wheel well, so even Tesla doesn’t adhere to this idea. As larger vehicles with longer...
  45. H

    Ford says owners can start using superchargers today (Feb 29)

    Your assumption here is that you're charging a Tesla - it's never been a secret - for several years now - that the Tesla SC network was always meant for non-Tesla vehicle charging - Musk has been saying this for years now. What you really mean is that the it's taking two stalls assuming the...
  46. H

    Ford says owners can start using superchargers today (Feb 29)

    You don't need to park the F150L like that to charge it at a V3 SC - the cable is just long enough to reach the charge port if you pull all of the way into the lane and literally almost touch the front bumper to the bump stop itself. OOS posted this YT video yesterday charging a F150L in this...
  47. H

    Ford says owners can start using superchargers today (Feb 29)

    Yep that's why most of the non-Tesla EV manufacturers are indicating access to 15k Tesla SC stalls. That's not all of the V3 stalls of course - and it doesn't include any V2 stalls. Tesla posted yesterday that they have been busy for the past several months touching most of the 15000 V3 stalls...
  48. H

    Cybertruck is a scam.

    If you go back into this thread - it has already been agreed upon that towing for 150/1500 series pickups is roughly 1/3 of the use case - as is evidenced by the chart that @Yelobird posted - which has repeatedly been shared in multiple towing threads as well (including earlier in this thread...
  49. H

    Cybertruck is a scam.

    Agreed. I think we'll see the F200 platform introduce a larger battery pack for Ford next year - similar to what the RAM REV will deliver - a mid-range pack with roughly 350 miles (this will replace the existing F150L) and a long range pack for up to 500 miles. GM is doing the same thing -...