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Hi, all -- I'm too lazy to go back and find the discussion about FSD fatalities to respond to, but: https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2022/INCR-EA22002-14496.pdf Search for FSD. Could someone try to calculate FSD miles for the period in question? I'm not sure that the data this is based on is...

Hi, Drtimhill -- > You are training ONE network to respond correctly to numerous inputs, the "mode" being just one of very many more.. I don't understand how this would work in an any sort of "pure" ML context. It seems to me if you want "Chill", you'd have to identify a bunch of "chill"...

Hi, DrChaos -- > They can show off a small car prototype with robotaxi-compatible features. Canoo was there 5 years ago. Thats not the difficult or interesting part. I don't think the latter part would be considered an obstacle for 8/8. One big advantage of revealing some sort of dedicated...

Hi, Unk45 -- We're in general agreement. Circling back to where I *think* all this started: 1: I believe that Tesla's DTC model is a competitive advantage, but not a huge one. Some people think it decisive -- "How can legacy compete!?" -- but I wouldn't go that far. The dealers are out there...

Hi, Willow_Hiller -- > V12 was trained primarily on employee-collected data, Got a source for that? If true, it really undercuts the "only Tesla has the data" story. Or maybe the idea is that getting to 12.x is easy, but you need the mountains of data for nine-marching? But if that's true, why...

Hi, all -- But back to the topic at hand. What could this plausibly be? Any radically different hardware poses a challenge to the "only Tesla has the data" story as well as the "every Tesla has robotaxi capabilities" story. A business model presentation seems like it would only give rise to...

Hi, MP3Mike -- Thanks, on review I see that I said, "Some auto companies have a separate line item for R&D; some, including Tesla, do not." , when I intended to say, "Some auto companies have a separate line item for R&D; some, including Toyota, do not." Yours, RP

Hi, Mongo -- Could you please be less rude? I welcome correction, but think you've adopted a hostile tone. What's the source for the above snippet? I'm looking at the "CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF INCOME" from Toyota's latest 20-F. Yours, RP

Hi, Bladerskb -- For extra fun, recent reporting on the Austin data center indicates that it is known internally as "Dojo". Maybe Teslarians refer to any in-house FSD related compute as Dojo. Yours, RP

Hi, Knightshade -- Note that I am not accusing Tesla of accounting fraud or any wrongdoing at all and resent the implication that I am. I'm surprised to hear this from you, because I think you have high standards for accuracy. I may have unintentionally accused Tesla of fraud; if so, could you...

Hi, Unk45 -- > You post n a subject about which you obviously know nothing, Accounting. Thanks for setting me straight! I'm certainly not an accountant. What I'm hearing is that when trying to understand dealership finances, I shouldn't look at the "Cost of Goods" line? Is this revealed...

Hi, Mongo -- There may be a longer conversation about this, to me, really unimportant point. I don't know if I'll engage it in due to software limitations, e.g., lack of threading. What I mean by that is: I don't know how to track replies to a post. I'm responding to this at a particular point...

Hi, Alexss88 -- > A dealer gets 10-15% margin on the retail price, Too lazy to double-check, but I believe dealer *gross* margins on new vehicle sales are in the 5%-6% range. You need to go the filings or earnings reports to see this, data service financial summaries don't provide enough...

Hi, Singuy -- Kind of regretting getting involved here, but -- "a thread about any other tech stock people are bullish or bearish in." , does not sound to me much like a thread for, "Let's work together to figure out what the stock is worth and what the risks are?" I'm not picking on you...

Hi, Singuy -- > The number 1 question this forum answers is "why should you invest in Tesla and why you shouldn't invest in other similar companies." Should there be another forum for, "Let's work together to figure out what the stock is worth and what the risks are?" Because that seems worth...

Hi, Alexxs88 -- > Tesla's valuation has always been dependent on the capability to deliver autonomous driving with a relatively cheap sensor stack. There's no shortage of people who thought -- and still think -- that Tesla will sell 20MM cars in 2030. Yours, RP

Hi, Mardak -- Check out the very first post on this thread. Yours, RP

Hi, Scaesare -- Why not both? Yours, RP

Hi, Diplomat -- > ~10k miles per critical intervention is a minimum before starting driverless testing. We're in agreement, then. > Are we measuring all interventions I'm going off the tracker, because that's all we've got, and looking at their (somewhat subjective) City Miles To Critical...

Hi, Diplomat -- > Tesla needs to get to at least 10k miles per safety intervention to even start a geofenced robotaxi. I've been using 100k for robotaxi/10k to start getting serious about seeking regulatory approval. If accidents/critical disengagement are 1/10, 100k gets 1MM miles between...

Hi, all -- <snip a bunch of other participants> "Disengagments" aren't the relevant stat for robotaxi/personal chauffeur purposes, it's "critical disengagements". We're not talking about, "The car behind me honked, so I took over" here. Yours, RP

Hi, Cliff -- >I dont understand why there are concerns that there are insufficient batteries for a model 2? The world is currently awash in batteries; the concern is IRA eligible batteries. I don't follow this closely,, but Troy thinks that oncoming sources of supply are already spoken for...

Hi, Zaddy Daddy -- Interesting work! I recognize this is all very back of the envelope, but had a couple of quick questions: 1: Operating costs of $0.2 per mile. I assume "operating costs" doesn't include "capital costs"? If so, shouldn't that be at least $0.1/mile? ($50k car driven for 500k...

Hi, DDW -- > MHO Tesla will never do Robotaxis. Let me do some goal-post shifting. Really my 2 main concerns are: 1: Are the tracker's numbers any good? Let me make a couple of observations: A: At some level, the answer is "No". I've never done the stats work on this, but the enormous...

Hi,, Daniel, -- Thanks for moving the conversation to more neutral grounds. Honestly, bringing my position up is a huge distraction but something I felt necessary. Maybe I'll try reframing it. I'd love to talk to knowledgeable people about the ifs/whens of Tesla achieving full autonomy. I'm...

Hi, all -- SidetrackedSue, agreed that the robotaxi thread might be a better place. Do you have a link? I'm not seeing a currently active discussion, but honestly didn't look that hard; using the search w. "Titles only" shows a seemingly relevant poll thread, maybe that would be better? At...

Hi, Willow_Hiller -- > I don't think we can say which direction it would be biased in You'll get no argument from me, that was an IMHO thing. I'm trying to see if people think the #s are any good at all, in a 2x/10x context. > , I don't think the FSD tracker data can be directly compared to...

Hi, all -- PDupbs, thanks for sharing! SidetrackedSue, agreed that the robotaxi thread might be a better place. Do you have a link? I'm not seeing a currently active discussion, but honestly didn't look that hard; using the search w. "Titles only" shows a seemingly relevant poll thread, maybe...

Hi, all -- I'm going to be posting this on the 12.x thread as well. Mods, delete if thought appropriate; maybe there should be a separate "quantitative analysis of FSD" thread. As a reminder, I'm interested in FSD 12 because I'm short Tesla because I think the stock overvalued. I'm more than...

Hi, all -- I want to be clear that the above is not intended to convince anyone of anything, but rather an "Am I thinking about this wrong?" endeavor. Yours, RP

Hi, all -- I'm going to be posting this on the fsdtracker thread as well. As a reminder, I'm interested in FSD 12 because I'm short Tesla because I think the stock overvalued. I'm more than willing to discuss to my position, but it isn't relevant to this current conversation, I'm only bringing...

Hi, Sleepydoc -- Thanks for the response! It definitely seems like 12.3 is a real advance over prior versions. What I find surprising is the difference between critical/non-critical city disengagements as reported by the tracker. At 1 every time miles, non-critical is well within prior...

Hi, all -- If you look at the Teslafsdtracker -- https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/ , you'll see an enormous increase in miles per city critical disengagement, while all other stats are roughly in line. I'm looking for anecdotage on this; does that match your experience? Do you think 12.3 is...

Hi, all -- Thought I'd put this here, as it seems to be the only teslafsdtracker discussion; I'll also be posting this on the V12 thread. If you look at the the Teslafsdtracker -- https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/ , you'll see an enormous increase in miles per city critical disengagement...

Hi, unk45 -- > I have no doubt the market is gigantic, rising every day. Agreed. > Demand will exceed supply for years, maybe decades, But I'm not following you here. As you point out, there are plenty of capable competitors already. I don't think entry is challenging for established...

Hi, Unk45 -- Thanks! I'd somehow missed Huawei's involvement in the space. FWIW, here's a capsule of SunGrow, which is apparently the current market leader: https://www.investing.com/equities/sungrow-power-supply-financial-summary ~$20B market cap, looks to be doing about $60B in revenue up...

Hi, all -- I've noticed that sell-side estimates have improved noticably since Troy started getting some press. Yours, RP

Hi, MC3OZ -- > In relation to Tesla's mission 2054 is far too late I'm not sure that Tesla's mission is relevant to my concerns, which are pretty focused on valuation. >, they would like it to be closer to 2030. Doubtless! > Tesla aims to scale ASAP and is more than happy to take outsized...

Hi, SmokyPeat -- Sounds good, hope I didn't sound condescending. Yours, RP

Hi, MC3OZ -- Thanks! Note that EnergyTrend's 167GWh estimate -- "the total figure for 2024 deployments, if factoring in residential and C&I storage as well, could reach 71GW/167GWh." is bracketed by McKinsey's 140-180 range. Given the lead times here, short-term estimates should be very...

Hi, SmoklyPeat -- Leveraged anything ETFs are subject to massive decay due to rebalancing; they will all go to zero eventually. The appeal is recourse-free leverage; you can't lose more than your initial investment. But that's true of just buying the stock as well! Unless you're already an...

Hi, MC3OZ -- The relevance of MP3 to the valuation of the BESS business is unclear to me. A quick summary, "The document projects a need for 30 TW of predominantly wind and solar capacity, along with 240 TWh of energy storage. " from here...

Hi, all -- Not sure about the etiquette here, but -- I tried starting a conversation about the value of Tesla's BESS business on the "Tesla Energy and utility scale projects" thread. Perhaps that was the wrong place; there were many thoughtful responses, but they weren't, ahh, all that...

Hi, JHM -- Well, we are in the "Tesla Investor Discussions" section ... Anybody else want to take a crack at valuing the BESS business? Yours, RP

Hi, all -- Negative voices are louder than positive ones. Thats a place for complainers to feel validated. Raurele, I'm not sure you understand what the tracker is or how it works. Fortunately, we've got Elias right here! Elias, sorry for the slow response, I kind of wondered away. I again...

Hi, Jim -- > without factoring in growth in power demand, the grids of the world could easily use some 14 TWh [...] if Tesla and other batterymakers can produce 1TWh in 2030, this comes nowhere close to saturating the market. I'm not sure what to say. I can't argue with your arithmetic -- not...

Hi, all -- FWIW, McKinsey's volume forecasts are on the high end; I went with them because they have $ market size estimate. Here are some others that center around 100GW (I suspect GW is the right metric here, not gWH)/400 GWh...

Hi, StopCrazypp -- This is at the core of the debate. If you've got a burger flipping robot (machine?) and fry-cooking robot (machine?) what do you need the general purpose robot for? Is the theory that broader adoption will lead to increased production leading to economies of scale that allow...

Hi, all -- I'm hoping to stimulate further conversation on this. The value of the Megapack business (or anything, really!) is: (At terminal date, market size * market share * margin * multiple) * discount factor. Note that "multiple" is intended to capture forward expectations at the terminal...

Hi, SageBrush -- > Any errors in my arithmetic ? No, but, > During battery day Tesla talked about reaching 3 TWh of battery production and 20 million annual car production by 2030. If a car is a 75 kWh pack then 1.5 TWh goes to cars and 1.5 TWh goes to storage. is what I'd call a "much...