Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hobbes]

A estimate made for a quarter in the last day of the quarter is completely useless, since by then we have had the numbers from many regions and factories published, so the estimation is just on the small portion of production and deliveries we don't know, which should multiply the error rate by 10x since you are predicting just a small portion remaining that is unknown

So if you don´t like the estimates, just ignore them and keep working with the old ones !

I like to have the best possible estimate at any given point in time, even if it´s just a day before the official numbers come out.

You make it sound this is some kind of sports competition and Troy is cheating.

 

[GOVA]

So if you don´t like the estimates, just ignore them and keep working with the old ones !

I like to have the best possible estimate at any given point in time, even if it´s just a day before the official numbers come out.

You make it sound this is some kind of sports competition and Troy is cheating.

I think he is saying that his estimates are useless.

 

[2daMoon]

Still on the subject of demand limited or not….am I the only one getting weekly texts/ emails from Tesla trying to get me to trade my S? First just want to trade? The trade and keep your free charging. Then trade and keep FSD. Then trade and keep both. Now today buy ANY Tesla and keep both. It’s beginning to sound desperate to me. If anyone with Tesla is following this thread, I’ll bite, if you include bright trim and wheels. You know that’s why I haven’t traded yet.

Well, they have stepped up advertising/marketing efforts. Maybe they are testing the market in ways they haven't done before as part of the process for gathering data on what does and doesn't bring in a buyer?

That could be as good an explanation as limited demand is.

 

[UncaNed]

Still on the subject of demand limited or not….am I the only one getting weekly texts/ emails from Tesla trying to get me to trade my S? First just want to trade? The trade and keep your free charging. Then trade and keep FSD. Then trade and keep both. Now today buy ANY Tesla and keep both. It’s beginning to sound desperate to me. If anyone with Tesla is following this thread, I’ll bite, if you include bright trim and wheels. You know that’s why I haven’t traded yet.

I get similar texts and emails because I have a Cybertruck reservation. Not so much desperation, but rather good marketing, hoping I'll buy and sell an additional Tesla instead of just holding the old one until my Cybertruck comes in. Arguably the free charging doesn't cost them anything, given that t's just transferred to my new vehicle from my old one.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Hey, any bets if we see a Superbowl commercial?

Show Model 3 elegance and cost compared to a Corolla, then hint FSD by showing people getting out and the car at the Theater and then parks itself - something amazing but light on the fear factor.

 

[SOULPEDL]

They're practicing... lol.

 

[wipster]

Little by little, slightly bigger bits!

 

[hobbes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1756064444835369091

 

[wipster]

Hey, any bets if we see a Superbowl commercial?

Show Model 3 elegance and cost compared to a Corolla, then hint FSD by showing people getting out and the car at the Theater and then parks itself - something amazing but light on the fear factor.

While I doubt we'll see one, a Tesla Superbowl commercial showing off both the beauty and utilities of the Highland 3 AND addresses many, if not most, of the misunderstandings about Teslas and BEV's in general, would be awesome!

Even though I've proven to several people they could afford the payments just with the amount of gas they won't be buying (most of them $80 or more a week who use their vehicles in their work every day), I still have a hard time convincing them and they're intelligent folks too! I think a lot of it is change from what they're used to plus all the FUD including negative headlines they read.

Frustrating, as we all have probably experienced, but frustrating none the less.

 

[MC3OZ]

Some weekend speculation about what is happening with Austin construction. (Note: speculation can be wrong).

South side tanks - if these are for paint we should see equipment to remove "Volatile Organic Compounds" from paint fumes, similar to what was built on the north end. If this is happening there will be plenty of time to spot it, as it was a slow build process, and they only enclosed the roof in that area after it was built.

I also think they might build new plastic moulding facility in this area as that was located next to paint on the northside, the only real change is that paint and plastics would run east-west rather than north-south at the north end. The plastic could be for outside parts of the Gen3 car including bumpers and possibly some of the other finishing plastic trim.

It makes sense for the final steps of the unboxed process to be located downstairs in that area - attaching the painted panels (cladding), attaching the bumpers, etc. The completed cars then enter the tunnel for a trip to the west side end-of-line.

The prior "assembly" step may be located in that area or close by within the existing factory footprint.

IMO most of the rest of the south extension is probably offices and computer rooms. The elevated columns may simply be to allow a "floor void" to run cables and utilities ... (also possibly for storage and computer equipment?) I don't think Elon is joking about sleeping on the factory floor during the Gen3 ramp. but sleeping in the nearby offices will be more comfortable. Having the last critical steps of the Gen3 process located close to the offices at Austin makes a lot of sense.

On the west-side near end of line 64 superchargers are installed, Joe has hinted that he expects 96 and are are early indications they may be getting ready to add more. Joe also expects some Megachargers for electric semis over the west side. I am hoping Joe is right. 96 Supercharger represents an approximate 2X the east-side charger capacity and that is an important clue about the west-side logistics capacity.

 

[rentierparasit]

Hi, all --

Not sure about the etiquette here, but --

I tried starting a conversation about the value of Tesla's BESS business on the "Tesla Energy and utility scale projects" thread. Perhaps that was the wrong place; there were many thoughtful responses, but they weren't, ahh, all that responsive, the main interest seemed to lie in BESS in general rather than valuation implications. . So I thought I'd try raising the question here.

Original post:

Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

Do we know how many GWh Lathrop and Nevada is doing?

teslamotorsclub.com

A followup:

Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

Do we know how many GWh Lathrop and Nevada is doing?

teslamotorsclub.com

There's some scattered discussion along the way.

The summary is: I get about $6/share. with a range of "nothing, really" to $96. Yet I hear people talking about this segment being worth as much as the auto business. What am I missing?

Yours,
RP

 

[Knightshade]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1756074935510843426

This is potentially good for Tesla in that perhaps it indicates Elon talked to a few lawyers who convinced him Nevada is a much better bet than Texas for where to move incorporation

 

[MC3OZ]

$135B Market size--mid-point of McKinsey's estimates.

Tesla master Plan 3:-

240TWh Storage - EVs 112 TWh

US only energy storage ,Li -

6.5TWh 8h Lithium-ion

Storage In addition, 1.2 TWh of distributed stationary batteries are added based on incremental deployments of distributed stationary storage alongside rooftop solar at residential and commercial buildings.

My guess that that MP3 might be talking about 100 TWh of energy storage batteries worldwide.

We need to convert that 100 TWh? of total storage into an annual amount... and a dollar figure.

Batteries last 20 years - so 5 TWh per year... at say $100 kWh... I think that is $500B per year.

Tesla also has Autobidder and other sources of energy income, plus distributed stationary batteries will probably be more like $200 kWh..

I would base my final market size on the estimates outlined in Master Plan 3, history will probably prove that they were an underestimate, because a phase change always results in a much bigger system.

 

[rentierparasit]

Tesla master Plan 3:-


US only energy storage ,Li -




My guess that that MP3 might be talking about 100 TWh of energy storage batteries worldwide.

We need to convert that 100 TWh? of total storage into an annual amount... and a dollar figure.

Batteries last 20 years - so 5 TWh per year... at say $100 kWh... I think that is $500B per year.

Tesla also has Autobidder and other sources of energy income, plus distributed stationary batteries will probably be more like $200 kWh..

I would base my final market size on the estimates outlined in Master Plan 3, history will probably prove that they were an underestimate, because a phase change always results in a much bigger system.

Hi, MC3OZ --

The relevance of MP3 to the valuation of the BESS business is unclear to me. A quick summary,

"The document projects a need for 30 TW of predominantly wind and solar capacity, along with 240 TWh of energy storage. "

from here:

Tesla Master Plan projects 3 TW of solar and 6.5 TWh of storage in US

Tesla releases its third Master Plan, with a broad focus on clean electricity generation and storage, as well as related manufacturing costs.

www.pv-magazine.com

OK. maybe we *need* 240TWh, I'm not going to -- and in fact, can't -- argue with that. But the market size is defined, not by what we need, but by what we're going to get. Because people get hung up on decades I'm seeing estimates only out to 2030, I'd like a 10 year forecast. Have you seen anyone credible claim that BESS installations are going to be more than, say, 2 TWh by 2030? I'm open to McKinsey being 50% too low, or even more, but would like to be pointed to the source of these estimates.

Yours,
RP

 

[Stretch2727]

Good video summary on the engineering and overall efficiency (EPA road load comparison) of Cybertruck. He did correct in comments that the wiper uses 120W at full speed. I thought 1kW was a bit much!

 

[SmokyPeat]

Anyone else here playing around with 2x leveraged Tesla ETF, TSLR? I just bought a few shares today. I thought the 1.5x leverage of TSLL might be the sweet spot for awhile, but 2x seems like it may be better now that TSLA has been punished this year.

 

[rentierparasit]

Anyone else here playing around with 2x leveraged Tesla ETF, TSLR? I just bought a few shares today. I thought the 1.5x leverage of TSLL might be the sweet spot for awhile, but 2x seems like it may be better now that TSLA has been punished this year.

Hi, SmoklyPeat --

Leveraged anything ETFs are subject to massive decay due to rebalancing; they will all go to zero eventually. The appeal is recourse-free leverage; you can't lose more than your initial investment. But that's true of just buying the stock as well! Unless you're already an "all-in" Tesla investor, I'd suggest just increasing your allocation instead.

Yours,
RP

 

[MC3OZ]

Have you seen anyone credible claim that BESS installations are going to be more than, say, 2 TWh by 2030?

This is a recent estimate:-

‘Global surge’ in large-scale energy storage deployments predicted this year by EnergyTrend

Analysis firm EnergyTrend has forecast that a “surge” in global large-scale energy storage system deployments is likely in 2024.

www.energy-storage.news

['However, it is large-scale battery storage that will dominate the sector’s growth narrative in 2024, with EnergyTrend predicting up to 53GW/128.6GWh of utility-scale installations.']

['For an idea of scale, the firm said in December that it expected to find 52GW/117GWh of new energy storage installed across all market segments in 2023, while the total figure for 2024 deployments, if factoring in residential and C&I storage as well, could reach 71GW/167GWh.']

We are at the very early stages of an exponential growth wave, market demand will increase as prices drop, growth will help drive price reductions.

For context, I don't assume Tesla making 20 vehicles per year by 2030 is completely off the table, What it needs is the initial Gen3 production to go well and 3-4 new Gen3 factories starting no later than early 2026. demand isn't an issue scaling production is..

Energy storage is similar the hard part of 2 TWh per year by 2030 isn't demand (assuming the right prices can be hit), it is supply ramping all parts of the production process in sync to get to the final outcome. By many companies and countries can contribute to 2 TWh per year by 2030. if we say Tesla only needs to do 10% of that then we are talking about 200 GWh, 8 fully ramped 4680 lines. Not hat Tesla will necessarily use 4680s, but by 2030 they probably will be using them.

So it is all a combination of multiple exponential curves, vey hard to predict, and humans are not good at predicting, The pace is always harder to predict than the end result.

 

[MC3OZ]

Some weekend speculation about what is happening with Austin construction. (Note: speculation can be wrong).

South side tanks - if these are for paint we should see equipment to remove "Volatile Organic Compounds" from paint fumes, similar to what was built on the north end. If this is happening there will be plenty of time to spot it, as it was a slow build process, and they only enclosed the roof in that area after it was built.

I also think they might build new plastic moulding facility in this area as that was located next to paint on the northside, the only real change is that paint and plastics would run east-west rather than north-south at the north end. The plastic could be for outside parts of the Gen3 car including bumpers and possibly some of the other finishing plastic trim.

It makes sense for the final steps of the unboxed process to be located downstairs in that area - attaching the painted panels (cladding), attaching the bumpers, etc. The completed cars then enter the tunnel for a trip to the west side end-of-line.

The prior "assembly" step may be located in that area or close by within the existing factory footprint.

IMO most of the rest of the south extension is probably offices and computer rooms. The elevated columns may simply be to allow a "floor void" to run cables and utilities ... (also possibly for storage and computer equipment?) I don't think Elon is joking about sleeping on the factory floor during the Gen3 ramp. but sleeping in the nearby offices will be more comfortable. Having the last critical steps of the Gen3 process located close to the offices at Austin makes a lot of sense.

On the west-side near end of line 64 superchargers are installed, Joe has hinted that he expects 96 and are are early indications they may be getting ready to add more. Joe also expects some Megachargers for electric semis over the west side. I am hoping Joe is right. 96 Supercharger represents an approximate 2X the east-side charger capacity and that is an important clue about the west-side logistics capacity.

Following up on this, if there is subfloor basement area that is approximately 6-feet high,,,, cars could be parked there and it would be a very easy trip down a ramp from the ground floor. If the entrance to the boring tunnel is accessed via the basement... that might work well.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Hi, SmoklyPeat --

Leveraged anything ETFs are subject to massive decay due to rebalancing; they will all go to zero eventually. The appeal is recourse-free leverage; you can't lose more than your initial investment. But that's true of just buying the stock as well! Unless you're already an "all-in" Tesla investor, I'd suggest just increasing your allocation instead.

Yours,
RP

Thanks, I'm aware of the decay and other possible pitfalls. It's more of a trade for me than an investment. I'll probably sell within a few weeks if we get a nice little move up. Everything goes to zero eventually if you think about it. I'm not hoarding my TSLA shares for future generations either. I plan to take profits at some point before I go to zero. I'm just curious if anyone else here has picked up some TSLR. I just discovered it a couple of days ago.