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  1. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    That is a symptom of mis-appropriation of government incentives. The solar developers are trying to take advantage of the federal incentives for solar farms, regardless of the costs they incur to build out the infrastructure to those farms. As the price of electricity drops due to an abundance...
  2. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    Why in the name of ass-hatery would you focus on putting solar panels over farmland, when there's plenty of parking lots, buildings and homes to put those solar panels in Georgia?!?! Edit: Your focus on the inane is what's earning you the collective ire.
  3. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    Just because one developer did the idiotic thing of cutting down a forest to build a wind farm, doesn't mean the others are equally dumb. Most of the wind farms (including in TX) have been put up without cutting down any trees. So your characterization is WAY OFF.
  4. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    privatize profits and subsidize losses. My uncle (long past retirement age) owns Shell for the dividends. I can't convince him to drop his investment, as I imagine most retirees are in the same boat. They need the dividend income, but can't seem to grasp how these companies will eventually...
  5. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    Keeping things in perspective: https://blog.ecoflow.com/us/effects-of-temperature-on-solar-panel-efficiency/#:~:text=For%20every%20degree%20Celsius%20above%2025%C2%B0C%20(77%C2%B0,as%20deserts%20or%20tropical%20areas. At 1% efficiency drop for every 2-degrees C above 25C, we're not talking...
  6. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    You started off on the correct foot and then did something mathematically wrong by claiming clean energy as NEGATIVE carbon. It is not. It is ZERO carbon. 1+0 still equals 1. That is the math.
  7. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    That's pure rhetorical BS. Until china (or any country) are 100% renewable, any clean energy they produce is simply there to offset their own fossil fuel consumption. They don't have "extra" to offset some other countriy's fossil fuel consumption. That is NOT negative carbon no matter how you...
  8. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    Okay, we don't have any viable FAST ways for negative carbon ... yet.
  9. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    Nope. When 100% renewables is "net zero", any burning of fossil fuels still makes it a net positive carbon footprint. They can only be considered negative when they sequester (remove from the atmosphere) more CO2 than they emit. We don't have any viable tech for negative carbon ... yet.
  10. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    Yes you are "using" 2x the amount of energy. The EIA charts are about energy content. Fossil fuels have significant amounts of energy capacity in them, but the "work" (which is usually in the form of kinetic or electrical energy) is significantly less.
  11. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    I was thinking of geothermal and nat gas, since you said "Thermal is not economically compatible with solar". That was where my original reply was coming from. Unfortunately neither battery storage nor pumped hydro are anywhere near $100/MWh for SEASONAL energy shifting, so your simple...
  12. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    How about for seasonal power shifting? Ramp up thermal for late-fall to early spring for the times when solar is lowest and the waste heat is now a useful by-product instead of something to work against. No matter how cheap solar becomes, long-term stored energy is still pretty costly.
  13. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    It took me awhile to read this chart! Initially, I thought the red line was Nat Gas, but couldn't figure out how that generated power could go negative?!?! Then I realized that's "imports", which means CA was actually exporting power to the other states during those hours.
  14. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    I think there's some merit to the article's perspective. Much like how burning oil releases stored chemical energy, nuclear fission releases stored nuclear energy. Creating crude oil with millions of years worth of organic decay and pressure is ultimately an endothermic reaction. Likewise...
  15. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    The problem with that thinking is with demand pricing, overnight prices are going to be at wholesale rates, making that X-40% a very poor source for ROI. BEV's charge when electricity is cheapest, and solar makes that time from 9am-3pm. Combine that with workplace charging and you can forget...
  16. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    I stand corrected. Having worked in server farms for over 2 decades, I was going to make a point about how minimum consumption is within 60% of peak consumption isn't very "peaky", because a server's energy consumption does NOT scale with its load...
  17. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    Data centers are the WORST candidates for renewable energy, because their power consumption (driven mostly be cooling needs) are pretty much static. AWS and other cloud computing centers are priced towards maximizing resource utilization, which means keeping them operating as close to a full...
  18. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    The data calls for an end to burning fossil fuels "yesterday", since CO2 emissions take time to ramp down. Obviously that isn't going to happen. Not today, nor tomorrow, nor this year. So when you wrote, "when it comes to the Climate Change issue let's find solutions matching with the...
  19. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    No. You can't do that. Al Gore was a proponent of addressing climate change, and his problem was that no one would listen to him. Same problem here. You have to factor in human psychology or you'll end up with a solution that works perfectly in theory (because it's facts based), but fails in...
  20. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    Ha! You too don't get it. Who on this forum is arguing that climate change is NOT a problem? Because you insist on beating that drum without any recognition on whom you're beating it against, in essence, you are demonstrating dogma - which is a sure sign of ideology. It's like telling...
  21. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    You keep repeating this, but no one ever claimed to doubt this. This reliance on "the science" is in itself a form of ideology. You are advocating for "us" to do something about climate change on a forum dedicated to the community of people who've already taken the first steps towards reducing...
  22. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    I don't disagree that we all suck. It's the above statement that I'm trying to point out to you. "The science is settled, the technology is there", but our government (and the half of the population that voted for them) lacks the political will to bring solar panel manufacturing inshore. And...
  23. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    You can NOT pick and choose which solar farm will power your furnaces (because it's all coming from the grid). And usually burning a fossil fuel is more energy efficient than running an electric furnace, so you can't make that substitution anyway! So the choice is truly, buy chinese solar...
  24. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    Yeah, where did you get your statistic 0.05%?! Silicon ingot production is the most energy intensive part of making solar cells, and the amount of silicon used in a single 1 sq meter solar panel (300w) is equivalent to 600 i9-core processors, or 10,000 microcontrollers, or 83,000 LED chips...
  25. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    Don't forget that coal is still a significant chunk of China's electricity production, so don't expect a significant increase in solar panel production without a significant consumption of coal for it. But it's a necessary price to pay for accelerating the supply of renewable energy and the...
  26. O

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Look for the Plaidessey from the Boostedboiz: You can live vicariously through their lives, as they dropped a minivan shell on top of a model S Plaid "underbody".
  27. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    Looks like someone dove into the EPA documentation and made a mountain out of a molehill: Frequent Questions about Landfill Gas | US EPA LMOP is the name of the program and its been around for years, with over a thousand participants.
  28. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    HA! The UN?!?! How exactly would they "intervene"? It's not like China is invading anyone. Edit: What would be more effective in china, is to shine a spotlight on their coal mine accidents and their death tolls. Then spotlight which manufacturers still rely on coal for their steel or...
  29. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    What's amazing is that the CO2 chart shows India in dark red, while China (the paragon of conspicuous coal consumption) is "merely" slightly red ... and this from the same guy (Peter D. Carter) who was complaining about how much coal China was consuming. He strikes me as a "complain about all...
  30. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    Don't know how to make sense of it, but it's even more intriguing that the natural gas power production exactly inverses the battery storage absorption! bug in the data maybe?
  31. O

    Cybertruck Will Feel Dated By the Time it Comes Out?

    The sky is usually clearest after a storm, so perfect for including solar panels with that relief aid to provide power and recharge the truck.
  32. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    Our choices shouldn't be between bad and worse! This is a dichotomy that's been forced upon us by the political machines. Anyway, I'm going way off-topic. I only brought up my distrust of the administration's "committment", because you firmly believe that it'll will matter. It won't. We've...
  33. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    Forgive me, but I'll have to hold off on praising their "committment". As someone who voted for them, I felt disillusioned by how their perspective got tainted by politics, to the point where they introduced policies that actively worked AGAINST Tesla and SpaceX. It makes their committment...
  34. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    "some have said" is wiggle room for lie. It might be the largest investment in US history, but spending historic amounts of money on inflated prices (think pentagon spending $10,000 on a toilet seat) doesn't make for "largest investment" against climate change. Removing fossil fuel production...
  35. O

    Mars and Off Planet Colonization - Pros and Cons Discussion

    Yes humans are adaptable, but what makes us adaptable? Our competitive nature (aka those evolutionary forces) are what makes us so. You can't have the positives without the negatives. It's wishful thinking to say that "we can". People who can think "I have enough", don't have the drive to...
  36. O

    Mars and Off Planet Colonization - Pros and Cons Discussion

    Considering the Fermi Paradox, I'm afraid your desire to pacify humanity (aka control its insatiable urge to compete and expand) would doom it to extinction. A species that is content to be a master of its limited environment is no different from the dodo birds.
  37. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    That 2023 to 2024 reduction in gas power plant production was a huge one! It probably coincides with the 2 PGE megapack sites coming online last year. So now that we have empirical data proving out JB Straubel's thesis, how long before the rest of the world deploys more batteries to pair with...
  38. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Next week is a monthly expiration. I've noticed that max-pain is less reflective of options demand for the longer term options, like monthly, quarterly, and annuals. The next weekly max-pain (5/24) shows it back at 850.
  39. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Am I understanding this correctly? It looks like this repair strategy is to help exit an underwater position with a profit? Since the profits are capped once the stock price recovers. If I wanted to keep the shares (at the original cost basis of $900, but now shifted to ~$846), do I just...
  40. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    What does negative pricing mean? There's so much supply that they're looking for storage capacity and are willing to pay for that capacity?
  41. O

    Cybertruck Will Feel Dated By the Time it Comes Out?

    Read my previous posts to see how way off you are. You're gripped by the fear that I mentioned earlier. I am an admitted gambler though, so there is that. But unlike a roulette table, I can always call a tow truck (and deal with the verbal chastising) if my gamble doesn't pay off. Not...
  42. O

    Cybertruck Will Feel Dated By the Time it Comes Out?

    And I've done the same, but arrived home with 2% remaining. The point is that some people can't get over their fears, and no amount of our own personal experience will convince them otherwise ... until they've experienced it themselves.
  43. O

    Cybertruck Will Feel Dated By the Time it Comes Out?

    I've always believed that as more people live with EV's, they'll learn that many of these "an EV won't work for this situation" fears are completely unfounded. I've been ICE-free (BEV only household) for over 6 years now, and have done plenty of road/tent-camping trips with kids in tow. BUT my...
  44. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Well, all those scenarios breaks the "I'll be the last to sell my shares" pledge. By announcing the sale before he actually sells, he gave himself a reason to break the promise. And then if you're going to publicly announce that you're selling shares, then doing it as quickly as possible was...
  45. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    For opinions, sure. But for claims of "facts", this laissez-faire attitude is how falsehoods are spread. Leaving the ignorant (not claiming anyone is ignorant, only a generality here) alone simply allows them to propagate their ignorance, because they're louder. And then claims based on...
  46. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Since today seems to be a minimal movement day, anyone doing anything with NVDA? I had opened a 5/10 -945c/1100c BCS last week, and it's at 50% profit now. I'm tempted to open a second, assuming today's rally will revert by Monday, but I'm also expecting a run-up to their earnings call on...
  47. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    The fallacy in the chart is that cruise ships aren't modes of transport (like the rest), but a destination itself. All the amenities onboard the ship are powered by the marine diesel engine. They should've included boondocking RV's for an equivalent comparison.
  48. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I have a tri-motor CT reservation (placed in 2018). Was given two opportunities to convert it to a Foundation Series order (shareholder's preference and referral credits). Didn't bite on either of those, since I'm waiting to see if they'll drop their price down to what was originally offered...
  49. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    It looks like personal electric mobility beats public diesel/gasoline busses. So "public transportation" is NOT king.
  50. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    That reuters article is full of contradictions. It reports an expected rise in coal production, but notes that miners have halted production for longer than the lunar new year due to a lack of storage capacity. There's also an expectation that hydro power will return to normal this year, which...