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  1. O

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    I could only find info stating that Mike Abbott was leaving due to health reasons. Your source stating that "his whole team from Apple to leave with him" brings into question those "health reasons". Let's see if there are any more departures?
  2. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    But unlike an orphaned well, there isn't any further ecological damage done by just leaving it there. And as stated before, there's scrap metal value in the system. So the landowner doesn't need to spend a dime for a 3rd party to come and retrieve the system, very different from an uncapped well.
  3. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    There are no inverters in solar panels, only solar systems. A failure in the solar system is NOT something that requires scrapping and recycling the whole thing. This is a huge false equivalence to abandoned methane wells.
  4. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    Not to mention that the aluminium can be recycled, so there's a financial incentive for someone else to remove them.
  5. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I have TSLY and regretted it. It's been underperforming, but I don't know if that's due to TSLA's drop or something else?
  6. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I like Yoona's suggestion of basing it off of delta's. 2 years ago, I would've said 15% OTM for a week out, but with premiums as low as they are (and how little the stock moves), it's kinda like the more mature stocks where there's very little premium for not as much risk. Like the others, I'm...
  7. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Isn't it just a function of what the bid price is? If people are willing to pay more than the intrinsic value of the option, then it still has extrinsic value. I've never seen it as anything that can be estimated, because there were times when a higher strike put (short-hand for "strike price...
  8. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    You measure it, with whatever app you've installed, but how does it get reported to your utility or CalISO? My Tesla App has a checkbox for sharing such data in order to participate in VPP, but my non-Tesla panels (and micro-inverter) don't have that same functionality.
  9. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    You mean besides the fact that data doesn't magically appear without some sort of measuring device? The burden of proof rests on the other side I'm afraid. CalISO can measure how much electricity is produced by the suppliers, or how much is drawn from the grid from the consumers, but...
  10. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    See my reply to iPlug. I firmly believe that the grid can handle EV's, but I also believe the amount of electricity needed is being hidden, because of how much "self-consumption" is being done through rooftop solar.
  11. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    So therein lies the answer doesn't it? It's not so much that efficiency has offset our need for more energy, it's that more electricity production is hidden from the statistics. Many EV owners also have solar panels, masking the actual amount of electricity being used in the electrification of...
  12. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    I'm curious how much of that data excludes rooftop solar? After all, that electricity is behind the meter, so how would anyone tally it without installing a meter off of every solar panel (without double-counting when solar energy is curtailed)?
  13. O

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Sorry if this is a repost, but just in case it hadn't: It's a petition letter to the board of directors.
  14. O

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The compensation package was voted and approved in Mar 2018. The 1st tranche wasn't awarded until May 2020 (which was primarily due to a bull market, since the stock had been suppressed for YEARS). The judge is using hindsight to rule that the objectives were "in Tesla's projections". 2 years...
  15. O

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The CalPERS owned over 200,000 shares (pre-split) at the end of 2018, which was worth about $60M at the time and $555M now (at $185/share). It was a tiny part of the fund. If they voted against the compensation package, they weren't alone, BUT they got out-voted by retail AND other...
  16. O

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You have to remember that the compensation plan was approved by the shareholders in 2018. The guy who bought at $380 doesn't get a say, because he wasn't a shareholder back then. Same with the fund managers. So keep that distinction in mind. The only opinion that matters is from the...
  17. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    My guess is permitting. Getting county/city approval to install solar+storage+net-metering takes almost forever in my area!
  18. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    So does the wording mean that we should expect 2.2m (a 23% growth rate) instead of 2.3m (a 29% growth rate) guidance?
  19. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    That's offset by the increased steel production (which also went up almost 8x), which primarily uses coal. China's electricity production is greening. There should be no doubts about that.
  20. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    The schwab mobile app is junk. I haven't used the TDA mobile app, but since I prefer the web interface, I assume that it's junk as well. For some non-standard custom orders (like 3:5 flip rolls), the web interface beats TOS.
  21. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    My TOS app works for both TDA and schwab, so I don't think there's any further issue.
  22. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    While China's electricity production has grown 8x, its coal consumption has only gone up 4x, showing how much of their electricity now comes from non-fossil fuels.
  23. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    running low on margin, so sold a few hundred shares to BTO Jan '25 +140c (at a ratio of 1.5-to-1) to increase cash level, but still retain some exposure to any upside. Sold May '24 -280c for a little extra premium. If stock rockets, will close the -280c and +140c and flip them back to shares.
  24. O

    How much $ to retire and how to fund your lifestyle in retirement

    Just wanted to point out that those two statements are the cognitive dissonance that you're going to have to get over. If the Jan 250 covered calls were exercised against you, then that would've been perfect, since the stock would've been sold and then you'd sell cash-secured puts to try to...
  25. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    The 27th was in the middle of the week. The 26th to the 29th, made that a "down week". Same with the 19th to the 22nd.
  26. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    BTO a few 2/16 +275c Gambling on sentiment changing before Q4 earnings. Especially as the idea of gross margins stabilizing sets in.
  27. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Was there even any time value left for those?
  28. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    Funny, I read that 2023 was forecasted to be peak coal, and that china's coal consumption was forecasted to drop by 2% over the next 3 years. India's coal consumption might continue to grow, since their electricity needs are still growing (and they don't have a large solar cell manufacturing...
  29. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I sell covered calls against ALL of my holdings (like AGNC, which are low volatility dividend paying stock). Those covered calls simply have to be over a few months out to be OTM enough to be considered "safe". The returns aren't that great, but it's essentially free money. "Wouldn't putting...
  30. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I know I'm not on that list, but I am shorting NVDA through a 01/19/24 -540c/+600c BCS that was opened a few weeks ago. It was part of a strangle with the put spread having been closed at a 90% profit today. I rolled this to a 02/16/24 -560c/+620c BCS and opened a new +400p/-460p BPS. But...
  31. O

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    I have a 2018 model 3 and 2021 model Y (picked up in Dec 2020). Neither have issues charging at v2 nor v3 superchargers ... yet. Edit: just a commentary to say that your post made sense.
  32. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I doubt it would affect anything. They don't seem to understand that Tesla management doesn't respond to threats, and they don't hold enough shares to significantly move the needle.
  33. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I had quit for other reasons, but now have the time to day trade. But I actually did better when I was working! I had the most losses when I tried to day trade full time. So I've quit the "full-time" trading! Now I try to avoid looking at the screen between 9am-noon to force myself to make...
  34. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    phew, what a morning! I have 10x -250p/-260c open for next week. Keeping fingers crossed for the ride!
  35. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Great job! This morning I rolled my -240p to next week's -237p for a slight credit. So I missed out on potential extra profits. Fortune favors the bold.
  36. O

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    We need oil prices to go "through the roof" for people to recognize the extrinsic costs of continuing to use fossil fuels.
  37. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Not sure why you would ever need to roll for a debit, unless you're rolling forward in time (to try to get it to close sooner)? So I had a 12/2024 -360p that I had opened in Dec '22 (to consolidate a couple of underwater CSP's to reduce my margin requirement). It should get zero'd out in the...
  38. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Well, Jim did ask for a preference for "capturing upside". 😁
  39. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    IMO, in keeping with "being the house", sell the puts (but as CSP, NOT BPS). If you think SP reaches 260 in 2 weeks, then sell a -260p instead of buying a +260c. If you're wrong about direction or speed, you can always roll it out and down. No such plan B with buying calls.
  40. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Dude! Let my strangles close out first before you taunt the beast!
  41. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Looking at the max pain for 12/8 and 12/22 (ignoring 12/15 since that's a triple witching week) being 235-237, I guess we'll just hover around this for a while. Thinking about whether to roll my 01/19 -300c forwards to 12/15 -255c just to harvest covered-call premiums and free them for more...
  42. O

    Model Y Owners - Preordering a Cybertruck

    Don't worry about this. Look no further than the model S/3 roll out. It starts off with the highest trim level on sale first. And those who put a reservation towards that trim would get a chance to configure, while those who wanted the lower trims had to wait. New orders were still being...
  43. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    Oh! I have a plan for that as well! If those puts become OTM early (way before expiration date), and you think it'll retrace, then roll them down and out to a later expiration for a slight profit. If the retracement happens and the SP looks to rise again, roll them back (earlier expiration)...
  44. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    "Early" is anytime before the option expires, so it could be tomorrow or the day before expiration. But yes, as long as there's still a significant amount of time value remaining, you "should" be fine. My contingency in the case of early exercise is to sell the shares immediately and resell...
  45. O

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I've a few ITM short puts (12/15 -240p, 01/19 -255p, and a Feb -260p) to capitalize on a bull run. They have enough theta to not worry about early exercises, yet should profit nicely on a bull run.
  46. O

    US Market Situation and Outlook (Rob Stark's American Megathread)

    Actually, I think it's more that the automakers are marketing hybrids more to stem the tide of EV conversions. These past few years have seen the greatest number of hybrid models. And then there's Toyota's "electrified" campaign that I'm sure has fooled quite a number of Toyota loyalists.
  47. O

    Model Y Owners - Preordering a Cybertruck

    Okay. Now that you two are on the same page ... I think this high price is temporary. I expect the price to drop once full production ramp is achieved (and as fewer remaining reservations are willing to shell out this post-inflation price), much like the ramp of all the other models once...
  48. O

    Model Y Owners - Preordering a Cybertruck

    I mis-read you. I thought you meant the range extender was going to be used as a powerwall. I see now that's NOT the case. As for using the CT as a powerwall - HELL NO. I have a powerwall, and it charges from the sun during the day and powers the home at night. It's a great way to defeat...