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  1. ariaga

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I don't think that data could ever be treated as anything more than a "secondary sensor" that could never be relied upon. Temporary construction zones, lane closures, street changes, and the natural lane shifts/reductions that tend to happen when roads are completely covered in snow would all...
  2. ariaga

    AWD delivery thread

    How did your delivery go today? I have a similar VIN to you.
  3. ariaga

    Touch-Up Paint

    Model S/X/3 Paint Repair Kit
  4. ariaga

    PPF or Ceramaic Coating - Choose One?

    Are these prices in USD or CAD?
  5. ariaga

    Anyone Trading a Mazda 6 for a Model 3?

    How soon? I'm waiting on AWD and currently drive a Mazda 6 that I was planning to sell. 2007 manual transmission though.
  6. ariaga

    Model 3 Delivery Checklist

    Depending on how much higher it is than 50, your state may have regulations that disqualify it as being a "new" vehicle (or at least require additional paperwork disclosing it). But I think that number is normally much higher than 50 (e.g., something in the neighborhood of 750). But really...
  7. ariaga

    Will AWD be bundled with Smart Air Suspension(SAS)?

    I would also be disappointed if everyone who wanted AWD is forced to get SAS. It's a feature I don't get much value out of that adds considerable cost. When SAS on the Model S wasn't standard, they were charging $2,500 for it. Originally Elon said that AWD for the Model 3 would cost "less"...
  8. ariaga

    Model 3 Delivery Checklist

    How would you even check/confirm the coolant though? Assuming it isn't warning you about it on the screen right there, I think the only way you'd know is if the warning message ever appeared or didn't appear after driving it for awhile. You could ask the Tesla delivery people, but they...
  9. ariaga

    Model 3 Delivery Checklist

    I created a Model 3-specific one here (borrowing content from the above video as well): Tesla Model 3 Delivery Inspection Checklist I also included a handful of other real-world issues encountered by people on TMC and reddit.
  10. ariaga

    Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

    3 months does seem excessive, but I would expect one hour (during the morning) to make a pretty significant difference for deliveries that occur before they've reached full production rates. During the first morning hours, they were getting anywhere between ~50 and ~150 U.S. reservations per...
  11. ariaga

    Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

    On the contrary, Tesla prioritizing Canada in Q2 could help them hold off on hitting 200k U.S. deliveries by one quarter, which would allow them to maximize the number of U.S. recipients of the full tax credit. Any American holding out for AWD should be praying that Tesla plays games to make...
  12. ariaga

    Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

    Another data point: Repercusión Mundial de TESLA: Análisis Palabra Clave Google did an analysis on google interest for "tesla model 3" and estimated 36k - 37k Canadian reservation holders based on their results, which is somewhere around 7% of the reservations.
  13. ariaga

    Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

    It may not be realistic. But the number came from model3tracker.info which had Canada making up 9.85% of the global reservations. So either model3tracker.info isn't giving a good sample population, or the Model 3 is simply a much more appealing vehicle to Canadians compared to the Model S/X.
  14. ariaga

    Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

    How do you explain Tesla giving earlier AWD estimates for Canadian reservation holders vs. their US counterparts? Even if the American reserved earlier? And even when the Canadian previously had a later date compared to the American? To me that suggests either an error or intention to play games.
  15. ariaga

    Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

    I previously reasoned that Canada wouldn't have enough takers (of LR+RWD+PUP) in order for it to make a difference in keeping Tesla below 200k U.S. deliveries for Q2. My current best estimate for Tesla at their current pace and predicted ramp-up is ~230k total U.S deliveries at end of Q2. Of...
  16. ariaga

    HW2.5 capabilities

    Do you also see a .proto file to go along with it? Content would look something like this: syntax = "proto2"; package tutorial; message Person { required string name = 1; required int32 id = 2; optional string email = 3; enum PhoneType { MOBILE = 0; HOME = 1; WORK = 2...
  17. ariaga

    [Rumor] Significant Engineering Issues with Model 3

    You're likely oversimplifying the situation. For one, you're missing the crucial step of root cause analysis that must be done before you can design a fix. Root cause analysis could easily take days or months depending on the nature of the problem. The only thing you could design in the...
  18. ariaga

    What would make you cancel your Model 3 Reservation?

    I would cancel my reservation if all of the following occurred: Schedule delays push expected delivery date to after Q3 2018, significantly reducing likelihood of a full $7,500 tax credit Base model excessively barebones, with just about every feature you'd expect in a $35k vehicle shifted to...
  19. ariaga

    MobilEye's approach

    To play devil's advocate: Why is having HD map data an absolute requirement for full self-driving? The obvious counterpoint is that humans are able to drive without them. I could argue that any *critical dependency* on HD map data for a self-driving system is a good indication that it will...