TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[avoigt]

I am moving to Belgium! 25% capital gains tax in Germany.

Have considered that a while ago but its not that easy. You have to live there 10 years and be careful how many days you spend in Germany.... Otherwise you still have to pay the 25%....

 

[Fact Checking]

According to FINRA/VolumeBot, short volume has been over 50% since August 13th.

But short interest has decreased since then (34.27M shares shorted at 2018-08-13 vs 33.3M shares shorted at 2018-08-20):

We clarified this; it's 67% of *sell side* trades which are *short-sell-to-open*. Says nothing about buy-side trades.

Indeed, I misunderstood that part, thanks for the clarification!

It's still true that 60%+ short volume is high by historical standards, but if there are also a lot of shorts covering the net short interest might still be dropping.

 

[Tslynk67]

How much would your transaction costs be, if you would buy for example 5 times for 2000 € each (to average down) and sell it with 2 or 3 transactions? With my current broker, which is a bit more expensive than some others, i'd have roughly 20 € in overall transaction costs over here in Germany. That would be a 0.2% stock price movement in the right direction to achieve breakeven. Personally i usually use derivatives leveraged by a factor of 2 or 3, which is a more risky, but results in an earlier breakeven and binds less capital. Not sure how much you guys have to pay in Belgium, but with such a setup swing trading on a daily or weekly basis should be possible.

I'm going from memory and I've had a few beers, but for NASDAQ, I have a €30 flat fee per trade, plus a government tax, around 1%, I think, and then an admin fee of a couple of €

So indeed, trading small amounts is prohibited by the flat fee. This is probably a good thing as I'd have been wiped-out if I tried day-trading.

Fees are lower on the Belgian exchange, but I'm all-in on $TSLA, so...

 

[lklundin]

humans have trouble figuring out where the road is and where they're supposed to drive when parts of the road are obstructed by... all kinds of things.

For the first half of the problem I believe one solution is to let each Tesla record at every moment its exact position. That information collected by a central computer, so when a given stretch of road has been traveled multiple times, the central computer then knows not just where each road is, but also exactly where on the road people drive. This information can then be distributed to each Tesla, which then always knows where to drive (on roads previously driven), regardless of visibility.

(Multiple passes on a given stretch of road is needed, since a single case would lead to problems, e.g. if that single previous Tesla had passed another vehicle and thus temporarily drive on the wrong side of the road).

Or has this approach showed itself impractical?

 

[mspohr]

For the first half of the problem I believe one solution is to let each Tesla record at every moment its exact position. That information collected by a central computer, so when a given stretch of road has been traveled multiple times, the central computer then knows not just where each road is, but also exactly where on the road people drive. This information can then be distributed to each Tesla, which then always knows where to drive (on roads previously driven), regardless of visibility.

(Multiple passes on a given stretch of road is needed, since a single case would lead to problems, e.g. if that single previous Tesla had passed another vehicle and thus temporarily drive on the wrong side of the road).

Or has this approach showed itself impractical?

That was the approach that Elon outlined in the initial AP presentation. All of the cars would collect position information and the average would be the travel path on that road. I assume they have been collecting all of this data for years.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

The Tesla investor theme song...

You're welcome

Dan

 

[UrsS]

About VW - Saudi investment: Tesla is an energy company, not a car company - read the Master Plan.
I do not know how serious the Saudis really are but if one of these 'Princes' publicly states that (paraphrasing) "if they continue on the present 'oily' path their country will be uninhabitable in a few decades" my support lies with the Saudis, not with VW who wants to continue producing profitable diesel ICEs, or the German government who agreed last August to continue with the mass production of diesel cars. German automakers confront a diesel rebellion in their own backyard
And I think the Chinese government is in the same boat (on the same planet) as the Saudis. Our government I guess lives on a different planet.

 

[ariaga]

That was the approach that Elon outlined in the initial AP presentation. All of the cars would collect position information and the average would be the travel path on that road. I assume they have been collecting all of this data for years.

I don't think that data could ever be treated as anything more than a "secondary sensor" that could never be relied upon. Temporary construction zones, lane closures, street changes, and the natural lane shifts/reductions that tend to happen when roads are completely covered in snow would all throw a wrench in that.

 

[brian45011]

... Call that matures in Jan 18th 2019. If I were to assume TSLAP occurs prior to maturity...

Very low probability of TSLAP before expiration, especially if small retail shareholders will be allowed to transfer their interests into the private entity.

 

[lklundin]

I am moving to Belgium! 25% capital gains tax in Germany.

In principle, if the TSLA stock exploded (e.g. due to a short squeeze), it would make sense for me to take 6 months + 1 day of leave and relocate to Belgium during that time. But I would surely need to do it before I sell and certainly with a sufficient amount of time left of the year.

The short squeeze needs to happen during 19H1!

 

[brian45011]

Well, "flat" cells should have superior heat management (if dimensions are right), as they expose more thermical contact surface, plus it's easier for viscous cooling liquids (such as glycol) to flow.

With cylindrical cells there's a heat flow assymetry: the cylinder is a spiral of wrapped up layers, and heat flow from the inner layers has to go through the outer layers. This limits maximum sustained discharge current.

With pouch cells the layers are flat, and there's cooling from both sides. This should, at least in principle, increase heat flow efficiency: heat can flow to both sides at double the speed.

In a cylindrical cell heat can only flow to the outside, helped a bit by the "radial expansion" of the contact surface, but certainly not twice the surface.

I agree about mechanical robustness and modularity: cylindrical is superior in that regard.

As to market action: I believe Tesla had positioned themselves well with cylindrical cells, which allows them to utilize the same form factor (but not the same chemistry) in their energy products. This increases battery production efficiencies and turns into a competitive advantage, as growth and TSLA valuation of automotive+energy is much higher than automotive alone. This helped them with Model 3 production as well, as they were able to temporarily repurpose Energy cell manufacturing lines into automotive lines at the Gigafactory.

Ethylene glycol is viscous?

 

[Starno]

I am moving to Belgium! 25% capital gains tax in Germany.

30% here in France.

 

[ggr]

Mod: there's an entire sub-forum devoted to battery developments. Please take this discussion there (and @Fact Checking, please read it first. --ggr.

 

[lklundin]

I don't think that data could ever be treated as anything more than a "secondary sensor" that could never be relied upon. Temporary construction zones, lane closures, street changes, and the natural lane shifts/reductions that tend to happen when roads are completely covered in snow would all throw a wrench in that.

I think it is a valuable, additional "sensor" and then a question of when the advantages outweigh the risks. For the example when the landscape is completely covered in snow, a human driver may very well have to refrain from driving,
since they may be more likely to drive their car off the road, than the road having a new but hidden obstacle.

Also having a precise knowledge of where the Tesla's usually go should allow the actual sensors to first concentrate on determining whether that usually traveled piece of the road is currently clear.

That's just speculation and I am looking forward to learning more about the coming performance advances of Tesla's AP.

 

[gringotuanis]

It seems like a big nothing burger to me. They extended their financing out a year. It shows that their lender still thinks that Tesla is in good enough shape to continue loaning them money, so that seems like a good thing.

It does seem like the price in AH trading dropped when it came out, but that is probably meaningless.

Yep, guess what the

30% here in France.

Welcome to socialism Euro boys. Wonder why we don't want it in US?

 

[X Fan]

Interesting interview with VW CEO Diess:

When I think of VW's recent track record/their CEO, I just substitute a L for his D and knock off one S.

 

[Ellec]

Bloomberg Tracker showing well over 6k Model 3's

Capture

• Ellec
• Aug 22, 2018

Bloomberg Model 3

 

[KarenRei]

I think it is a valuable, additional "sensor" and then a question of when the advantages outweigh the risks. For the example when the landscape is completely covered in snow, a human driver may very well have to refrain from driving,

*snicker* Stop driving when the landscape is completely covered in snow? Heh, you wish.

Take a look at the road makers we use. Notice how the left hand side has two reflectors, while the right-hand side has only one? Any guesses as to why that might be?

It's so if you're driving in whiteout conditions, and end up driving off the road without realizing it, you'll see either two dots to your right or one dot to your left, and know that you messed up.

Its the millions of little nuances like this to driving, which vary from location to location, that make true full self-driving difficult. One of my favourite examples is: how long do you think it'll be before Autopilot learns to even recognize what a sheep is, let alone how to classify them into ewes, lambs and rams, let alone to understand that if you have a lamb on one side, and a ewe on the other, that's a much more dangerous situation than any other combination of sheep, because the lamb will run to its mother when your car approaches?

It's great that AP adds in other senses that humans don't have. But we also want it to understand the sorts of things that we human drivers know.

 

[KarenRei]

Bloomberg Tracker showing well over 6k Model 3's

Capture

• Ellec
• Aug 22, 2018

Bloomberg Model 3

Awesome, but curious that they think that the rates are about to collapse. Has there been some announced downtime coming up?

 

[gringotuanis]

Any suggestions (not advice on what to do with my one TSLA Call? I'm at about 80% hard shares and then this $200 strike price Call that matures in Jan 18th 2019. If I were to assume TSLAP occurs prior to maturity, then I would exercise and have the shares, right?

I'm not even sure what I'm asking other than does anyone have a strategy on how to back out of this Option? I would be OK with cash and keep the shares currently on hand, but also wouldn't mind some run-up this year as the Call is currently underwater a bit. Maybe pick a month and a price - like target before Nov, or if > $375? And do I run into any trouble (forced into a decision regardless of price) getting close to TSLAP or Jan 18th if still public?

I'm not very experienced in options, so please don't assume I completely understand this thing. Maybe this is the one thing I should hang on to for the best leverage, and just sell a few shares (bit heavy now). I've still got cash in case the floor drops, so not a rush. Ignore tax consequences, it's my IRA.

No wrong answer here. Thanks!

Personally, I also have call options with Jan 19 exp as well as March and June. I think your analysis is good...get out early like Nov depending on the news at that time w privatization or wait for a good solid pop up to unload (meaning cash out or switch to shares). Patience with Tesla is key because one day of good news can cause a $20, $30 pop in share price. Buffett always suggested doing nothing as his piece of advice in many cases. Of course, you're trading options so you don't have as much luxury to wait and wait for it to go up...

Oh, also you'll have plenty of time to convert to shares for TeslaP as shareholder vote has to happen etc...so I wouldn't let that play a major factor in your timing of the options.