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  1. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I highly doubt InsideEVs has a good read on monthly numbers. They adjust their numbers once Tesla releases quarterly deliveries, which are global. You can basically back out US deliveries using European deliveries (which are reported by govt agencies) and making an assumption for China/RoW...
  2. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Also interesting.. a strong sign for US demand Tesla Delivered More Vehicles in January than Reports Suggest
  3. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Was thinking more about the model 3 inventory hack that was going around yesterday which suggested about 7k Model 3s were currently in inventory. If you go back through all of the quarterly Delivery & Production reports, I think you can basically calculate what inventory levels were up through...
  4. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    well it's 500k for all cars.. so 380 (guidance midpoint for model 3) + 100k (S & X) would be 480. Still I think this is a very positive sign though. Combine this the big increase in VIN registrations and I think we're seeing a very healthy picture for demand and production.
  5. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Inventories / In-transit.. Q4 Deliveries & Production Update - "1,010 Model 3 vehicles and 1,897 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q4, and will be delivered in early Q1 2019. Our inventory levels remain the smallest in the automotive industry, and we were able...
  6. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Replying to my own comment.. what I'm not sure how to reconcile is that Telsa said they had 1,010 Model 3s in inventory at the end of 2018. Any thoughts?
  7. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I ran a script to check every single VIN that was listed in these two pages Out of 10.8k total listed, 7k of the URLs work (presumably meaning that they are in inventory). About 3.3k from 2018 and 3.9k from 2019. Will be interesting to see how quickly these fall
  8. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My guess is the ships continue onto Norway and unload more cars. Elon on the last earnings call - "our whole focus is, okay, how do we get those cars made, get them on a ship as fast as possible, get the ship as fast as possible to Zeebrugge in Belgium then get them over to Drammen in Norway and...
  9. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes - they're estimating actual deliveries of vehicles not restocking of inventory etc. It's an estimate of actual levels but appears to have high historical accuracy. From the bottom of article - "The data was within 1% of Model 3 deliveries for Q4 and has an R² of greater than 0.97 with...
  10. K

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    meanwhile in norway.. just passed 200 registrations for the day! best day of the month so far by a long way. Tesla Registration Stats
  11. K

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Looks like this ramped up significantly as the day progressed. As of now it's at 103 for the day (Tesla Registration Stats). The push continues!
  12. K

    Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

    surprised to see so few european orders logged in the sheet so far.. come on european buyers.. we know you're out there!
  13. K

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Tesla Q4 Half-Time Report: Data Shows the Ship has Steadied Looks like Tesla is executing well in Q4 Deliveries: Through 11/18, deliveries are in-line with Q3 levels at ~31k vehicles delivered in the US. As in prior quarters, expect a large push in December for the company to meet its guidance...
  14. K

    Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

    Got it.. fascinating stuff. Thanks for doing this, it is a wealth of information.
  15. K

    Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

    @Troy do you anticipate that the processed % will go to 100% or is there a baseline assumption for people who just forget to fill out the form when they get their delivery? Apologies if asked before.
  16. K

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Think this is an interesting question - how many shares actually need to be recalled? If you look at the historical short interest data from S3, depending on when the vote occurred for Elon's comp and/or his chairman role, it's not like shorted shares dropped by a huge amount. Is there a reason...
  17. K

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Firstly i think you really need 2/3rds of shares because of Tesla's super majority rules (see this article). So basically they have to find a price where the majority of investors are actually comfortable in this change. I don't think it's a given that the majority of investors actually want...
  18. K

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I think new shorts are entering the market right now (actually i know this is the case but not sure of the scale).. Some investors believe that $420 is the cap so the losses will be minimal but they can win if the deal falls through. I think that's why we're not seeing more of a squeeze without...
  19. K

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    what was the t rowe price news?
  20. K

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    I think i'd agree with this.. I think most people understand that this Q is likely to be back and are probably staying out of TSLA until the quarter is reported. I think we'll have a "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect but in the opposite way - "sell the rumor, buy the news." once we are done...
  21. K

    General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Tesla Store Demographics: More Like Ferrari than Audi Some interesting data: From the article: 44% of the visitors to Tesla stores have a household income level greater than $150,000. Of the auto manufacturers that we looked at, only Ferrari had a higher percentage of visitors at this income...
  22. K

    GOT MY VIN

    Congrats! Can you update when they call you to pick up? Intrigued to know if those cars are getting moved quickly or if there's a lot of rework being done on them?