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  1. jbih

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla Model S now has an option for a tow hitch (1600 kg towing capacity) in Germany: I was called by Tesla regarding my order of a Model S Plaid and they confirmed that the tow hitch is optional for every Model S, independent of if it was orderd. It appears it's not possible to directly...
  2. jbih

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    A prestentation by Karpathy. Some new things like recognition of speed limits (!!!), stitching different camera images together etc. The title is: "[CVPR'20 Workshop on Scalability in Autonomous Driving Keynote] - Andrej Karpathy"
  3. jbih

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    This might be the right place for the Nikola Motor interview (Rob Maurer interviews Trevor Milton): Am I the only one who thinks it's unfair to outright call him a scammer? I would not invest in the company because any car company that is not Tesla has a high risk of failing, but I'd like to...
  4. jbih

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don't know if u/__TSLA__ on reddit is FactChecking, but the quality of the posts is similar
  5. jbih

    Fixing the Off Top Post Problem in Busy Forums, Like Investors-Roundtable

    You have to stay behind the most recent page by about 3-5 pages. At that point, there are enough ratings for each post so that the filter works very well. It only applies to a very high volume thread like the investors roundtable. It's turned off for other threads.
  6. jbih

    Fixing the Off Top Post Problem in Busy Forums, Like Investors-Roundtable

    No, it does work really well. I'm using it for a few months now, every day.
  7. jbih

    Does the S have more "pull" at higher speeds?

    Germany's Autobahn. Yes, I'm lucky! I limit myself to about 140mph with the winter tires (new P3D) at the moment though. Max is more ~155mph instead of 300mph of course, but it's still plenty. At 95mph (~autopilot max), I'm an obstacle.
  8. jbih

    Fixing the Off Top Post Problem in Busy Forums, Like Investors-Roundtable

    We are working on a solution that in my experience works very well (I've been using a prototype for a few months now): Show only posts with more than x likes/loves/informative/helpful ratings. Hope to be able to share it soon! This implicitly hides troll posts and most off topic posts (except...
  9. jbih

    Managing the volume of the Investor's Roundtable thread

    Now that you had some time to use the script, how does it work for you? I love my program, it works extremely well for me, but since it starts a local server it's not as user friendly. A userscript is the better solution.
  10. jbih

    The $420.69 club

    I'm cheap, bought one TSLA for $420.00.
  11. jbih

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I believe there is a single actor buying the majority of shares/dictating the price at the moment. That would explain that we had like 9 days in succession with the price alternating between going up and down, every single day. I don't think that's an accident. ARAMCO went IPO on December 11th...
  12. jbih

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla sold 280 cars in Germany in November, 9581 cars since January: Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt - Fahrzeugzulassungen - Pressemitteilung Nr. 26/2019 - Fahrzeugzulassungen im November 2019
  13. jbih

    Program to manage the volume of the Investors' Roundtable

    More examples. This time I managed to embed them in the post. Between post #107804 and 107861 only 3 posts shown, which means 95% filtered at the set threshold of 15 rates.
  14. jbih

    Program to manage the volume of the Investors' Roundtable

    Technically it already is a website. Would need permission from the forum owners to make it public.
  15. jbih

    Program to manage the volume of the Investors' Roundtable

    I've written a program that counts the ratings on each post, sums them up, and hides posts that are under the specified threshold. And it works extremely well. Not sure how the screenshot will turn out in this post but Two pages (i.e. 40 posts) of the thread have simply been skipped because...
  16. jbih

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Just ordered, RN112983xxx. Will replace our old bus. My wife will love the truck because, like in the bus, she can sit in the middle seat, next to me, and she probably won't get motion sickness because of the ride height. My wife likes our old 2004 bus better than our Mercedes because of this...
  17. jbih

    If Tesla can win 10% of the pickup market, they'll earn $20 billion per year

    I was about to type this is the iPhone moment for the truck manufacturers. But the iPhone was expensive. This thing is cheap and good. And I don't think anyone can keep up with the speed Tesla improves, this is just the beginning. Why stop at 50% market share?
  18. jbih

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I give it a 50% chance Telsa will bring the Cybertruck design language to smaller cars. Plus the cost savings! $25,000 Cybercar?
  19. jbih

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    "Mobileye today reaffirmed that it’s on track to launch a robo-taxi service in Tel Aviv by 2022 and is collaborating with RATP Group (Régie Autonome des Transports Parisiens) to deploy autonomous vehicles elsewhere." Mobileye partners with NIO to develop driverless cars
  20. jbih

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    MobilEye demonstration of their FSD solution driving in a complex environment in the city. "Vision only, no lidar, radar, just 360 degrees vision camera sensors, that's it."
  21. jbih

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I want to repeat a speciality of the German incentives: The state gives 2000€ and the manufacturer has to give 2000€ as well. That reduces the margin on every Model 3 sold by more than $2000. So Tesla should sell every low-margin Model 3 in other countries as long as they are production...
  22. jbih

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    "Twenty-six U.S. oil-and-gas producers including Sanchez Energy Corp. and Halcón Resources Corp. have filed for bankruptcy this year, according to an August report by the law firm Haynes & Boone LLP. That nearly matches the 28 producer bankruptcies in all of 2018, and the number is expected to...
  23. jbih

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    Exxon Mobil Corp. is poised to drop out of the S&P 500 Index’s 10 biggest companies for the first time since the index’s inception some 90 years ago, the consummation of a long-term trend of tech titans replacing industrial giants in the top ranks of U.S. stock market. Exxon Poised to Drop From...
  24. jbih

    Super Bulls Only

    In general yes, but currently the prices are lowered to generate demand, due to actually damaging FUD. I believe the FUD is becoming less effective, allowing for more appropriate prices. The target for gross margin was 30%.
  25. jbih

    Selling puts for noobs

    I have $23,000 now and instead of buying stock directly I want to sell puts. Here is what I consider doing: Sell puts 4-8 weeks out if we are below the midpoint of the Bollinger Band, otherwise wait If the value of the sold puts sinks to 1/3 of the sell price, buy back and go back to step 1...
  26. jbih

    Super Bulls Only

    To expand on that, the Model 3 is already significantly cheaper than the competition, so Tesla will hopefully not have to lower the prices to sell the Model 3. They only have to lower the prices because of service hell and because of shorts successfully spreading FUD and thus lowering demand...
  27. jbih

    $235 TSLA - BUY BUY BUY

    We don't sell, we accumulate.
  28. jbih

    Super Bulls Only

    TCO of the Model 3 is now much lower than incumbents' comparable offerings (3 series, C-Class, ...), . Production costs will go down a lot I think, increasing margins significantly. I expect the company to grow significantly above 60% each year, and I think growth of more than 100% is somewhat...
  29. jbih

    Support TMC

    Loading of threads has become very slow in the past days due to ads not loading. The page appears in acceptable time but then it takes forever to jump to the new posts. Blocking ads helps but I wanted to show ads to support TMC. So I upgraded to a blue account instead.
  30. jbih

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    I wondered the same, and I'm guessing it's too expensive at the moment. I believe Elon Musk will try to run his rockets on renewable methane and will thus find a way to bring prices down. Which could well mean that Musk attacks big oil from two angles - demand (Tesla) and supply (cheap CH4 via...
  31. jbih

    trading

    I remember vaguely that an release of something autonomy is planned for around August 15th. Is it V10 or something else? If it's good, might influence the stock price.
  32. jbih

    Gigafactory 3 developments

    The test track in Tilburg is inside the building, they're possibly doing the same:
  33. jbih

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Auto supplier Continental shifts gears — and its capital — to an electric future – TechCrunch
  34. jbih

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    While the M3P is better than most gas cars on the track, I believe it could be even better - if Tesla wanted to. I think the Taycan will give them the motivation to work towards that goal.
  35. jbih

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    I hope the Taycan sells! So that Tesla keeps improving the M3P and especially the Model S.
  36. jbih

    The Promise of Maxwell

    Just hearsay. It appears Tesla has secretive areas both in Fremont and Nevada. Here is an article that touches this: Tesla's Secret Weapon: Intense Focus On Batteries
  37. jbih

    Super Bulls Only

    EVs are the future Tesla has 80% market share of BEV in the US Others are not catching up fast. Who knows, maybe Tesla is innovating faster than others are catching up. I wouldn't be too surprised if Tesla produced 50 million cars per year in 2030 with a market share between 30 and 80%...
  38. jbih

    The Promise of Maxwell

    Kreisel Electric is an Austrian company making battery packs with cylindrical cells. And Rimac uses cylindrical cells as well.
  39. jbih

    The Promise of Maxwell

    There is also the secret floor in Gigafactory 1 which could house experimental battery production.
  40. jbih

    Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

    North American oil producers burned through $187 billion of cash since 2012. That's between 5-20 billion dollar negative free cash flow in most of the years... ValueAnalyst1 shows the interesting graph directly: ValueAnalyst on Twitter Here the full article on Bloomberg: I had to open a...
  41. jbih

    trading

    I'm planning to sell a small amount of my shares and buy Jan 2021 calls with strikes between $250 and $400. I sell the shares just before the earnings call when the expectations is the highest. I believe the calls will be cheaper after the earnings call because: The implied volatility goes...
  42. jbih

    TSLA Market Cap in 5 Years - Your Best Guess

    If I assume a fair current market cap of $80B and 60% growth per year: $80B*(1.6)^5 = $839B That is without considering Tesla Network. It seems to be too good to be true. But why not?
  43. jbih

    When will TSLA recover to 300 and why?

    IIRC Cathy Wood said that the $4k need to be revised... To an even higher price target.
  44. jbih

    Tesla Insurance

    If people get the feedback that driving more careful will reduce their insurance premiums they will be more careful. Which will reduce the money Tesla Insurance has to pay them, further increasing profits.
  45. jbih

    Selling puts and calls?

    When do you roll it? As soon as it goes into the money or rather on Friday before close? Would you explicitly advise against not rolling? Thanks!
  46. jbih

    Audi re-focusing on Hydrogen...

    It would also be much more expensive than just filling up at home (or for free at work).
  47. jbih

    Selling puts and calls?

    What is your opinion on both selling puts and calls? I assume selling puts alone is a good strategy to acquire stock I don't mind having, but that only works if I have a supply of money from outside this account. I sold a put for 0.99 at $245, then after acquiring the shares, sold a call at...
  48. jbih

    Managing the volume of the Investor's Roundtable thread

    An interesting side effect: My solution makes it hard to post or reply - resulting in much fewer posts from me recently. I only post or reply if I think something is really important. I'm guessing everyone is thankful for that :-) The killer feature probably is that downvoted posts simply don't...
  49. jbih

    Managing the volume of the Investor's Roundtable thread

    I have implemented a filter that only shows posts with a specified number of upvotes. Counting 'disagree's and 'funny's is optional. I have used this solution for several weeks now and it works very well. My solution is unfortunately not easy to roll out to everybody, so I'm hesitating to...
  50. jbih

    $235 TSLA - BUY BUY BUY

    It is now as clear as ever that Tesla will win big time. The oil and car industry are very afraid. No wonder the attacks are stronger than ever. I can't believe Wall Street is stupid enough to short a company that is #1 overall in Switzerland and Norway, almost #1 in cars in the US and is...