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Mobileye's quarterly earning is around $50m, most of the sales are EyeQ3, which is a solution based on 40nm technology priced around $30. It did a good job on AEB and ACC, etc.. They are hype-envy to TSLA/Waymo as there is not much design wins for their 28nm based solution, aka. EyeQ4 except 2-3...

I think that I saw it somewhere that the first two ships carrying 4400 cars, and in the first 4 days of Jan., factory was in vacation. So we have (930+140/day * 65(1/5/2019 -- 3/10/2019) - 4400)/14 ships ~= 4650 cars/ship. the 930/day production rate is from Bloomberg tracker, which is at 72028...

Chanos is just another kind of activist hedge fund manager. Kinda like a dark version of Bill Ackman. He successfully cut off the life line for TSLA: right now it is close to impossible for TSLA to raise money with reasonable cost from the open market. Wall Street is more or less a very...

Because SEC is not an issue. The market is trying to price in demand for the last a few weeks. The response to FED interest rate is a strong evidence to support that theory: low interest -> more demands for new cars. The 10 point rise to TSLA high demand claim the day before is another evidence.

In US, the biggest enemy for TSLA in 2019/2020 would be rising interest rate and used car price, imho.

Yeah, it may very likely put me in depression:). There are a lot of randomness here, but usually in 2 days -- 2 months time frame, the buying/selling balance is quite telling for investors who are trying to figure out signal/noise. If our fundamental analysis result is bullish, while the market...

I agree that there are a lot of opportunities. I also don't see anything wrong in the whole episode of closing/not closing store and delay price hike. Traditional auto OEMs do that all the time with their dealerships. In short term, the Q1 delivery/production number would be quite telling. It...

Thanks for the reply. I do have good intentions and I am trying to make sense of the recent price action. I like your first point: yes, it happened before in a small scale, we are comparing 100k-200k cars market(s,x) with 2-5 millions though' I agree with your second point that there is no...

I disagree. The price action is more or less in line with oil price and fundamental, instead of noises and I disagree. My hypothesis is that the stock price in short/median term is more or less driven by fundamentals: How much is demand and how much is the margin. The demand is bigger issue in...

I am a strong believer of EV with a 2014 model s and LR model 3, but I want to make that I can see both sides of the arguments. What you mentioned are quite strong evidence to argue that there is no demand issue for 2019. The bear's point is that lowering price by $10k would not bump the demand...

I agree that 35k ICE != 35k EV. The issue is not if, but when. We are guessing where demand in 2019 would be in the middle of S curve, it could be off by 20% or 80%.

Thanks. I believe that is the most realistic argument a bear can make. I do worry about demand for the following reason: -- The high growth rate of model 3 deliveries in 2018 are due to early adopters got pulled in instead of organic growth. Is it so that early adopters rushed in then it...

The problem is inventory. They are build-to-localized instead of build-to-order, meaning they will need to build x numbers of cars and expect them to be sold in y days. So spike in order numbers can move cars out faster and improve cash position. The bigger problem is Q2 profitability, if they...