Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SebastianR]

Possible outcomes (as I see them as a non lawyer):
[...]
Given that short denial doesn't need much time I'm leaning towards the "longer research" or "something else" outcomes. The usual response for a judge would be to grant the request, maybe with a reminder and warning to the parties that reply papers must stay in scope.

But this is not a usual case, and as I said it in prior comments: this is close to the point of max risk for both parties.

What do you think are the chances that:

• The judge encourages the two parties to reach an agreement (rather than going through the rest of the process here)?
• Any decision by the judge would be appealed (either by Tesla/Elon or the SEC?

 

[Fact Checking]

GNI doesn't work for Ireland (or Luxembourg) because of the impact of parking profits in Ireland by multinationals.

Just to explain this to those who don't know these schemes: these are shell companies with billions of dollars of "revenue" in Ireland that employ maybe 10 accountants and lawyers in Ireland and contribute very little to the real economy and are paying very few taxes.

They are bloating up GDP and the GNI quoted by @RobStark without any real economic function other than tax avoidance.

 

[electrichapp]

Still a lot of $50,$100,$150,$200,$250 put options out there expiring 4/18/2019.
Expecting a lot of FUD and scare tactics from these shorts to turn a profit/gain.

 

[SebastianR]

OT: Green!

Very green! What happened?

 

[KarenRei]

BREAKING NEWS:

... it's plant a seed day! Have you planted a seed yet?

 

[Huskyf]

What's going on with $TSLA +2.2% ?

 

[saniflash]

is this still fed spike or material nonpublic information being traded?

 

[FTMagicSquare]

Trying to understand the reasons for TSLA stock movements will drive you crazy. Just know that it goes up and down a LOT, sometimes quite rapidly. Expect that to continue for a while.

Tesla is going to go through continued growing pains as it works through the global market demand for the model 3, specifically the various trim levels. They are trying to figure that out now for the U.S. even while rolling out the higher trims globally. Production clearly now exceeds the U.S. demand for the higher trim levels. They have really just started to produce the lower trim levels (SR/SR+) for the U.S. No one actually knows the overall global demand for the model 3. Tesla has an idea but there really is no way to fully know it in advance. I don't think anyone who is being honest believes the sustainable demand ceiling globally is under 10,000 per week. However, this is a new frontier so there is uncertainty, particularly around the question of sustainable demand.

There are some signals to look toward for answers to the sustainable demand question such as: the percentage of model 3 owners who are new to Tesla, polling data that indicates the percentage of people looking to buy an electric vehicle, and the historical sales data regarding the model S. Until we find out the actual sustainable demand for the model 3, we simply can't know. This uncertainty, while real, is being fully exploited by the anti-Tesla crowd which is undoubtedly having an effect on the share price. Model S ended up having much higher demand than Tesla originally anticipated. Tesla has quite a bit of data at this point regarding global sales of the model 3. They are in the best position BY FAR of anyone to have the best idea about global demand, certainly much better than the financial analysts who are issuing all of the downgrades on the stock on the basis of concerns over sustainable demand.

Yeah, it may very likely put me in depression. There are a lot of randomness here, but usually in 2 days -- 2 months time frame, the buying/selling balance is quite telling for investors who are trying to figure out signal/noise. If our fundamental analysis result is bullish, while the market is bearish, we sure want to know what is missing in our analysis, right? IMHO, the danger of auto sector falling off cliff and other negative macro economic factors in 2019/2020 are overlooked in bull arguments for TSLA and the market is trying to price that risk in.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Very green! What happened?

What's going on with $TSLA +2.2% ?

is this still fed spike or material nonpublic information being traded?

Fed spike.

 

[KarenRei]

What's going on with $TSLA +2.2% ?

Apparently it didn't get the message that I just sold a put spread moments before it started. It's supposed to crash when I do that

 

[Fact Checking]

What's going on with $TSLA +2.2% ?

Good macro news: Fed won't raise rates this year. Tesla demand is exposed to recessions and car purchase/mortgage interest rates, so TSLA is coupled strongly to Fed rates.

Broke at 2pm ET.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Apparently it didn't get the message that I just sold a put spread moments before it started. It's supposed to crash when I do that

Wish I had thought to do that; was content with my existing spread opened Monday. So far looking very good for my iron condor this week.

 

[Huskyf]

FED News good I don't think so because they said "Chinese and Europeean" country economy are slowing"
This is not a good New for Tesla ? But $TSLA go up.

 

[Intl Professor]

I think this may be a generational thing.

It certainly is from the wrong side of 80. The word that is offensive rhymes with and coincides with colloquial for natural.

 

[Krugerrand]

If you were the judge trying to monitor Elon's behavior on Twitter just remember he agreed to pre approved tweets and now he clearly stated he wasn't having tweets reviewed ahead of time. That's a violation. The judge will have to do something. Her hands are tied. At the very least they will force Tesla to show evidence that the tweets are being pre-approved. I would if I was the judge. I would reign him in because of his belligerent attitude.

Is there a judge in the house? I’d like to nominate someone to be reigned in.

 

[Nocturnal]

BREAKING NEWS:

... it's plant a seed day! Have you planted a seed yet?

What kind of seed should we plant bud?

Yeah, it may very likely put me in depression. There are a lot of randomness here, but usually in 2 days -- 2 months time frame, the buying/selling balance is quite telling for investors who are trying to figure out signal/noise. If our fundamental analysis result is bullish, while the market is bearish, we sure want to know what is missing in our analysis, right? IMHO, the danger of auto sector falling off cliff and other negative macro economic factors in 2019/2020 are overlooked in bull arguments for TSLA and the market is trying to price that risk in.

Politics around EVs aside, I think the bears (that are honest bears not people with an axe to grind) are seeing EVs as a separate market and are undervaluing Tesla's FSD progress. I hope I'm right.

 

[KarenRei]

What kind of seed should we plant bud?

I'm going to plant a mango seed. Have some mangoes on-hand, and can always use more mango root stock

 

[FTMagicSquare]

There are so many forces working against tesla, and still tesla continues onwards. Higher valuations would accelerate production guidelines, and every competitor only benefits from slowing tesla down-- GF/plant in China in 1 year, start to finish??!!!

Analysts increase click through with negative comments, and just speculating here, would make more for their company if there is more traffic.

Big auto is not ready for EV paradigm, despite all the hype of projected tesla killers. Their installed dealers, service centers, sales models, current manufacturing and tooling, and current models will not benefit from a transition to EV.

Big oil has no benefit from EV, although there is inkling of big oil shifting to petrochemicals. Think of all the countries who would be affected with decreased/reduced oil sales.

Big defense industry defending the oil reserves and oil based countries would also suffer.

Lots of industries working directly or indirectly to thwart the tesla mission.

In US, the biggest enemy for TSLA in 2019/2020 would be rising interest rate and used car price, imho.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Agreed with this; Wall Street might be, I think, doing the right thing here. They're pricing the company based on multiples caused by a recession...which Tesla could potentially cause...

Auto companies usually work off of 2-5% profit margins and build off of high volume. If that volume drops...well, they go bankrupt. So, what are the market effects on the economy and civilization overall on the drastic change to its backbone? Tesla is scaling incredibly fast and there's definitely concerns about the economic impact on two of some of the biggest (and most important) industries on the planet: Oil and Auto...and what mostly every person on the planet does daily: go from Point A to Point B.

Thoughts, anyone?

If we are talking big economic effects here ... if the auto companies can’t make a profit at price X, then they’ll be forced to raise prices. Volumes will drop and layoffs will ensue, but the companies should be able to survive for a while.

 

[S3XY]

Lot’s of messages on the Benelux FB group about scheduled deliveries the last week of march.
Tesla sent out a batch of delivery appointment mails yesterdayevening, including mine!
Scheduled for 30/3, but unfortunately I’m not available that day. Will see if they deliver on sunday.

A while back someone in the EU mentioned that they had asked someone at their local store if they could volunteer to help with deliveries and were told there was no need. I wonder if it's time to ask that question again?