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I think it is a little early for this to happen, but I fully expect this to be the case. IMO Ford began stating financials for Ford Blue and Ford Mach-e separately as a first step to spin off the EV portion of the business in a few years. Step 1: Report financials separately Step 2: Grow EV...

They'd have this option and a whole lot more. Depending on how aggressively they'd like to promote the usability of the system and how dramatically they want to make the relative charging advantage of the Tesla network appear they have nearly limitless optionality. Again the strength of...

Love the idea of "limited access" to Super Charger stations. Expanding on that, it would not have to be a location blackout, but could easily be a limited number of dedicated cabinets or chargers at each location. For example an 8 supercharger station might have 6 Tesla dedicated stations and...

I’m seeing a lot of models dramatically drop margin to 24-26%. I’d like to add a little reasoning why I think that might be too pessimistic. — I don’t believe the bulk of the price increases ever came through. I ordered a Y for $61,000 configured Dec ‘21. Received the order in mid...

There are subsidies from every step along the way. https://cleantechnica.com/2022/09/23/the-really-big-battery-deal-in-the-ira-that-people-are-missing/ 10% of the cost of battery electrode active materials $35/kWh of battery cell capacity $10/kW of battery module capacity (or, for a battery...

I like his analysis in general and share some of the optimism surrounding the under-reported and under-appreciated Tesla Energy Story. With that said, his analysis contains a fairly significant assumption to get to the 38% margin number. In particular, he assumes something like a linear...

You are correct in a lot of cases, however, the majority of the drivers I interact with are owner-operators and as such are intimately familiar with the cost of operation. They are typically either leased on with a carrier, or work with brokers to fill their schedule. I have no doubt that the...

My day job involves interacting with a fair number of truck drivers. Many of them are long-haul and over the road, some are delivery drivers with 300-500 mile days being typical. Nearly universally, after a brief summation of the advantages of the EV platforms they have one strong belief...

The technology does not seem almost ready for prime-time based on my read. Consider, from the article: -Ford noted that Argo was unable to attract new investors. -Argo AI employees were told that some people would receive offers from the two automakers -(Ford will) shift its resources to...

UPDATE TO MODEL Y ORDER Shortly after the email exchange with my delivery consultant, I got an e-mail from another address at Tesla with the subject line: YOUR UPCOMING MODEL Y ORDER CANCELLATION RN116XXXXXXX This email stated that not only would my order be canceled with my price lock...

While the market panics due to the unwind of the quarter-end wave, I thought the board may be interested in my anecdotal report of current US Model Y LR delivery/wait times. I ordered a white/white LR Y with base wheels in the first week of December last year. Hoping that I'd lock a lower...

I like your thought process, but I’m thinking it will be a bit bigger. I’d give you ride a fair chance at being correct, but lean towards addressing the commercial market. 1. Robotaxi 2. Sprinter Van 3. Minivan/Eurobus Can’t wait to see

I couldn't agree more, and I think that is the point. Many people on this board and on Tesla Twitter have bemoaned the bill for being unnecessary in terms of the EV credit. Why would the government subsidize a product where supply already lags FAR behind demand? It is lunacy! Most headlines...

‘‘(i) the lesser of— 21 ‘‘(I) the modified adjusted gross 22 income of the taxpayer for such taxable 23 year, or ‘‘(II) the modified adjusted gross 2 income of the taxpayer for the preceding taxable year, exceeds the threshold amount.

I'm going to guess 3. Winter fuel, plus cold air density penalty, plus all the idle time to keep the fuel and cab warm, plus the huge elevation changes.

This video was part 2. In part 1 I understood him to say that it was not his Q4 prediction, but an example of a “perfect” quarter based on Q4 end of year run rate. He used 91 days of projected Dec. 31 capacity/run rate for his calculations. Don’t get too excited, but at the same time, no...

Always good to have your insight. The 10% number I threw out was admittedly a wild guess and seems absurdly conservative to me. Thinking about the value the semi platform will deliver, I expect that sales will only be limited by the ability of Tesla to scale cells as early estimates guess...

Negative net income is expected as Lake is a pre-revenue lithium extracting company. The big dump was related to an active short-seller report claiming that Lake's direct lithium extraction (DLE) techniques would A: not work with the brine they have access too B: destroyed the ceramic beads at...

A family member reserved a 500 mile range semi last week and reported to me that the reservation number is less than 16,000. Keeping in mind that a $20,000 deposit is going to keep away all but the most serious of buyers, I wouldn't expect many to drop off the list once deliveries become...

Yeah, others too have updated my knowledge base. Cunningham's law at work. Thanks all!

V3 stalls have 250kW independent to each pedestal. The electrician I talked to while they were installing locally said the electrical service he was installing could handle all 8 pedestals at max capacity simultaneously. V2 is 150kW shared between an A and B pedestal.

Much digital ink has been spilled regarding the ability of raw materials extracted from various sources worldwide to enable qualification for the tax credit. Very little discussion has been had regarding the second part of the requirement: (1) CRITICAL MINERALS REQUIREMENT.— ‘‘(A) IN...

Yeah, that part confused me too, but it looks to be a technical move to place into the record a bill which is a skeleton for the new bill. According to several of the sources on twitter, the language in this bill will be replaced by the language in the Inflation Reduction act of 2022, though...

I think the systems will be a bit more than $1k to add in, but overall I think you are spot on, that significant profit will come from these and that hybrids will be the most valuable use for the limited cell quantities that will be available for legacy OEMs. Taking the long view, the profits...

I share your optimism, but I do wonder about using volumetric to unit output comparisons is straightforward. One of the hallmarks of the Tesla approach is vertical integration. We know they are putting cell lines in the factory and even though they are highly space efficient, how many more...

I wonder if the COGS for these vehicles was capitalized as part of the factory build out, and if so if they would have to reallocate that capital expenditure from the depreciation schedule into the quarterly expenses. It's probably not material but could be more than $100 million increase in...

Since only the anode is DBE, that aligns with our prior knowledge that there was some issues with denting of the calendering rollers by harder metals that make up the cathode. Since this cell is at least 6 months old, Jordan rightly points out that once he gets the new cell from Munro's 4680 Y...

I'm sure you are correct that he'd get more views, but likely less revenue. There are dozens of shallow dive Tesla podcasts and Youtube videos out there to choose from if one wants succinct and high value information and Rob's is probably the most valuable if that is what you want. I...

Yeah, it is a real head scratcher from the outside. Lake had some really good offtake agreements signed. Speculation on Hotcopper included mismanagement and false claims by Lake that the Kachi resource could be profitable via DLE, bullish speculation that there would be a takeover bid coming...

Rephrased for clarity: "Tesla with solved FSD, an operational robotaxi network, a humanoid robot business which replaces much of human labor, and has solved for artificial general intelligence will be worth at least 100x the automotive business. This makes the EV business a rounding error in...

I hope this is not too far off topic as I do believe that contrasting current energy systems to the EV system is core to TSLA long term performance, but I believe you are mis-stating the information in the linked chart "US Corn Portion used for Fuel Ethanol." The Y axis is "Billions of Bushels"...

Is $0.74/Watt the all-in construction costs for large scale projects you see? I was able to self install a 20kW ground mount array a couple years ago and it was $1.35 and was pretty happy at that price…

I absolutely agree that this is huge. FSD is doing this as you note and if you haven't seen DALL·E 2 yet, it is shocking. Pay particular attention to the scene in the museum where placing the corgi in different areas. Dalle2 knows to mimic the style of the painting or to place the corgi...

I'm thinking about the Nuclear Portfolio or FATMAN (F)acebook (A)pple (T)esla (M)icrosoft (A)lphabet (N)vidia

Do I have a place to put the money that I like better? What was my planned holding period upon entry? Is the company executing well? Has the investing thesis changed? Just questions I as myself (among others) when I think about selling a stock. For me in regard to Lake Resources: Not...

Do we have any idea how the Defense Production Act works with regard to company revenues? I know it has been invoked in the past, but a quick google didn't help me to understand how healthy the financial consequences of having your business directed to do a specific task by the Federal...

To add to this, it is not only the monthly cost but there are many people who will take into account the volatility of the energy prices. The pain that people feel at the pump will stay with them and the predictability of electric prices vs the high volatility of gas prices has value as well...

In fairness, the 150kW is a minimum requirement, not a cap. I believe the people who install these systems will do the math on throughput and desire ability vs install and operational cost and many if not most will come to the obvious conclusion that higher power is a better investment in most...

It is all about the supply chain, the certainty of offtake partnerships from the mine to the finished electrode, and the capacity to create the cells with these materials. While Elon has stated that he wants everyone to make as many batteries as possible, there have been precious few offtake...

There are plenty of things to attack with regard to the current state of our discourse, however, getting upset over the phrase "EV adoption" seems to me like semantic hypersensitivity. Also, I think we on this board need to keep in mind that we are still in the early adopter phase of this...

While hard to predict with certainty, I believe that an instant rebate of several thousand dollars will indeed speed up the adoption of EVs. I'm of the opinion that rebates are marketed by politicians as being for consumers, but are designed to help the manufacturers instead. In this case...

Wow, no wonder Elon refers to them as fool cells.

Regarding the Nikola FCEV, I wonder, am I missing something? No one seems to be reacting to the 200kW maximum output of the truck. When asked to translate to horsepower, the Nikola spokesperson said "100 kW is roughly 135 horsepower, so we're looking into(the total output of the two fuel...

Perhaps that is what they have planned for the 300 mile, $150k version.

Oh, well I guess I agree with you then ;)

I have to disagree because the bill does a few things, some primary and others are knock on effects. There is money in the framework for establishing domestic supply chains of critical materials. Details are scarce, but I look to companies like Novonix (disclosure: I own it) to get grant...

IMHO, this encapsulates the level of brilliance of Elon Musk. He is figuring out how to solve the most difficult and intractable problems humanity faces in a way that works within the framework of the existing power structures. He has worked relentlessly to solve climate change the only way it...

Just a few points. Corporate personhood protects the political speech of corporations. If corporations then have constitutional rights, how could the 16th amendment not also equally apply? Land and buildings seem fundamentally different than a business, especially in the context of corporate...

OT? A quarter of the conversation today was regarding the Billionaire tax. It might be dead for now, or it might not. Also, guessing you didn’t read the link or the quote which directly rebutted the previous post.