Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jhm]

Here is my interpretation on Musk's recent cryptic tweets.

"Just dropping some friends off at the pool." ~ I paid my taxes.

"Splish splash" ~ I have taken a bath paying my taxes.

Angelic smile emoji ~ Now I'm a clean angel.

"I love a good whine." ~ I know people will keep complaining about my wealth and the taxes I pay.

 

[AZRI11]

This looks like electrek and has spam ads - is this legit?

Yup

https://twitter.com/x/status/1465498133639704579

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Here is my interpretation on Musk's recent cryptic tweets.

"Just dropping some friends off at the pool." ~ I paid my taxes.

"Splish splash" ~ I have taken a bath paying my taxes.

Angelic smile emoji ~ Now I'm a clean angel.

"I love a good whine." ~ I know people will keep complaining about my wealth and the taxes I pay.

He said recently that he tweets a lot in the bathroom, so I interpret the first three to be toilet related. No idea about last one.

 

[AudubonB]

MOD: Potty-mouth coprolalia is bad enough. Zero room in this thread for bathroom "humor". You are more than welcome - read "100% encouraged" - to take that to Twitter. Again, the operative term is ===>100 percent<===.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Yup

https://twitter.com/x/status/1465498133639704579

Maybe Elon is selling that extra 10% of TSLA to put into SpaceX?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Maybe Elon is selling that extra 10% of TSLA to put into SpaceX?

Dear lord if this narrative takes off I'm going to be so annoyed. It's borderline FUD. Its very clear Elon is selling to pay taxes/exercise his options.

 

[LYTRIDR]

Regarding the Nikola FCEV, I wonder, am I missing something? No one seems to be reacting to the 200kW maximum output of the truck. When asked to translate to horsepower, the Nikola spokesperson said "100 kW is roughly 135 horsepower, so we're looking into(the total output of the two fuel cells) around 270 HP."

If that is the production intent, this seems to be an extremely underpowered rig. For reference, the average class 8 semi has 400-600 HP and the original specs for the Tesla Semi had 4 Model 3 electric motors, EACH outputting 211 kW.

My RWD Model 3 has great acceleration, but I'm not sure I'd feel the same way if I was moving 80,000 lbs.

Will the Nikola have a large battery pack or ultracapacitors for better peak power and use the sustained output to charge? Even so, a long haul up a steep grade would be painfully slow...

 

[Ohmster]

There would be significant ITAR issues with a purchase of SpaceX by Tesla, due to their significant amounts of foreign ownership (ie: Chinese companies and indivduals own over 10% of TSLA).

International Traffic in Arms Regulations - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Highly unlikely that Tesla would be allowed to purchase SpaceX.

Would it matter if it was a subsidiary or division? Many PE firms have companies that are heterogeneous in ITAR requirements. In fact in some companies it is site dependent. I know fitms that have specific locations that are ITAR compliant. While others are not. As far as I recall ITAR is all about physical separation. Only ‘appropriate’ personal can see or access protected equipment or data.

 

[PeterJA]

@DaveT, why he thinks Q4 will be a blowout quarter.

More suggestions of a blowout Q4:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1464646946895773699

Jason Yang is one of the YouTubers posting drone videos of Giga Shanghai. He hasn't said where he got his production numbers, even when asked by a comment on his video. But Tesla Economist presents some corroborating evidence (which is weak IMO), and discusses the implications if Jason's rumor is true.

 

[wtlloyd]

Regarding SpaceX I strongly encourage reading at least the end conclusions of the article. Insolvency is not really at risk but the desired planned timeline is. Evidently recently departed management were hiding or sugar coating production problems in the Raptor engine line and volume production is not being achieved. There still remains high failures with the ceramic heat resistant tiles. Critical issues to be solved immediately but hardly the death of the company - but certainly a financial hit and delay of the program.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Have we ever seen analysts so universally non-negative on TSLA? I only see three red ones on my Fidelity screen!

Also, doesn't JPM have a $215 target? How does that translate to "neutral"?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

More suggestions of a blowout Q4:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1464646946895773699

Jason Yang is one of the YouTubers posting drone videos of Giga Shanghai. He hasn't said where he got his production numbers, even when asked by a comment on his video. But Tesla Economist presents some corroborating evidence (weak IMO), and discusses the implications if Jason's rumor is true.

There's an additional rumor from another stating Nov Shanghai local sales/exports is over 70k. I wasn't really going to bother posting it because there's no real way to even remotely verify it. Just about a week and we'll know for sure.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Elon talking about bankruptcy for SpaceX is about as believable as his "weeks away from running out of money" at Tesla during the Model 3 ramp. There were then, and there are now, a long parade of people happy to throw money at him, either for an equity position or as a loan. There isn't the slightest chance of any problematical outcome other than the possibility of Elon's ownership position getting a bit smaller.

As to delays, I think they are still more likely to come from slow government approvals than any other reason.

 

[MP3Mike]

Regarding the Nikola FCEV, I wonder, am I missing something? No one seems to be reacting to the 200kW maximum output of the truck. When asked to translate to horsepower, the Nikola spokesperson said "100 kW is roughly 135 horsepower, so we're looking into(the total output of the two fuel cells) around 270 HP."

If that is the production intent, this seems to be an extremely underpowered rig. For reference, the average class 8 semi has 400-600 HP and the original specs for the Tesla Semi had 4 Model 3 electric motors, EACH outputting 211 kW.

My RWD Model 3 has great acceleration, but I'm not sure I'd feel the same way if I was moving 80,000 lbs.

Will the Nikola have a large battery pack or ultracapacitors for better peak power and use the sustained output to charge? Even so, a long haul up a steep grade would be painfully slow...

Yes, there is supposed to be a battery pack to buffer the power... This Tweet thread covers some calculations. (But it looks like it will be underpowered.)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1465479324522319876

 

[MC3OZ]

Regarding SpaceX I strongly encourage reading at least the end conclusions of the article. Insolvency is not really at risk but the desired planned timeline is. Evidently recently departed management were hiding or sugar coating production problems in the Raptor engine line and volume production is not being achieved. There still remains high failures with the ceramic heat resistant tiles. Critical issues to be solved immediately but hardly the death of the company - but certainly a financial hit and delay of the program.

Elon knows how to pinpoint problems, and how to motivate people.

I agree that is he very likely to personally pump more money into SpaceX, that is part of the formula, 100% commitment.

 

[JRP3]

Will the Nikola have a large battery pack

Yes, fuel cells can't accept regen braking and can't put out instant peak power so battery banks are used for both. FCV's are really hybrids and more complex than EV's.

 

[Electroman]

Elon knows how to pinpoint problems, and how to motivate people.

I agree that is he very likely to personally pump more money into SpaceX, that is part of the formula, 100% commitment.

The question is, will pumping more money accelerate the program as per Elon's timeline, or are we talking about fundamental technical/engineering issues still to be solved.. which can only be solved by bright dedicated minds and not by money.

Is this a money problem or a technology problem?

 

[LYTRIDR]

Yes, fuel cells can't accept regen braking and can't put out instant peak power so battery banks are used for both. FCV's are really hybrids and more complex than EV's.

Wow, no wonder Elon refers to them as fool cells.

 

[PeterJA]

There's an additional rumor from another stating Nov Shanghai local sales/exports is over 70k. I wasn't really going to bother posting it because there's no real way to even remotely verify it. Just about a week and we'll know for sure.

Rob is skeptical of Jason's rumor (Shanghai November production reaching 3600 cars/day), but Rob points out that a previous total production rumor (from Jason?) turned out to be basically correct.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Dear lord if this narrative takes off I'm going to be so annoyed. It's borderline FUD. Its very clear Elon is selling to pay taxes/exercise his options.

Well, no. 10% of his shares is way more than he needed to sell for taxes. He could indeed have decided to put more money into SpaceX. And I wouldn't fault him for that one bit.