In 2012, the three largest luxury car makers - BMW, Mercedes Benz, and Lexus - sold over 799,000 cars in the US, up from about 691,000 cars the year before. In 2011, the top ten luxury car makers sold just over 1.5M cars in the US. The tenth largest brand, Volvo, sold 65,000. Porsche sold about 35,000. Where does Tesla fit in: 2013 - First Full Year Model S Production? 2015 - First Full Year Model X Production? 2016 - First Full Year Gen 3 Production? I say as follows for US only: 2013 - 25,000 Model S 2015 - 40,000 Model S, 15,000 Model X 2016 - 40,000 Model S, 15,000 Model X, 40,000 Gen 3 FYI, Porsche sold about 35,000 cars in the US and 30,000 in China last year and is now in the process of doubling the number of dealers. BMW aims to sell over 300,000 cars a year in China from this year forward. Porsche's Market cap today is $20B, BMW's is $50B. Tesla's is $4B. This company could need to be making 200,000 cars a year in four years. Can they?