I own a MR RWD Model 3 next door in PA and it really comes down to cost. EAP was most important to me so I went barebones with everything else and got a spare set of winter wheels/tires from Tesla as I plan to replace it with an X in 2-3 years. So far through two or three snowstorms the car has been fantastic. Obviously I try to stay off the roads as much as possible when it snows, but driving through a few inches of snow, slush and light coatings of ice haven't been a problem.
I would recommend, at a minimum, getting the LR RWD if that's an option. Cold weather definitely kills the range and if your battery isn't warmed up before you get to the supercharger prepare to suffer through slower charging speeds. If you're going to keep the car for 3+ years I would spring for the AWD, I'd value it at $3-$4k and with a set of snow tires I imagine it would be amazing in all sorts of weather.