Investments to take advantage of the global shift to ev's

[teddyg]

Hi guys,
I posted this on TeslaMotors.com as well to try and get as much participation as we can as I believe there are many opportunities for us all to profit from the move to EV's...here goes...


I, like many others here on this forum no doubt, believe that the eventual shift from ICE vehicles to EV's is inevitable and only a matter of time now.
Tesla and SolarCity are already a decent part of my investment portfolio but I was wondering if we might all pool together here to use our collective knowledge of EV's and EV related tech to help each other make wise investments in other companies that stand to benefit from the EV "tide rising" so to speak?


To keep posts from being too long let's just start with two or three of your favorite picks besides Tesla and SolarCity, explain why you think they are good value and allow people to do their own research based on that.


I guess I should go first.
As I am from New Zealand I have better access to the Australian stock market than US so I am thinking about:


1. GXY - Galaxy Resources Limited - an Aussie lithium miner with lithium carbonate (for battery use) refinery in China. Accident at refinery recently has brought stock to its knees along with some financial difficulties. If lithium demand rises exponentially in the next few years though I would imagine this stock could move north quite quickly. Very speculative as just a penny stock.


2. LYC - Lynas Corp - An Aussie rare earths miner and refiner with a new state of the art facility in Malaysia (largest in world outside of China). Unfortunately they have had some issues with the Malaysian government with permits so had to delay opening their new facility. This has hurt the share price. All issues seem to be cleared up now so may be a good time to buy. Rare earths are needed for many electronic devices. In addition to the increased adoption of EV's I see our world getting only more digital and more proliferated with electronic devices. Especially as Asia, India, and other developing nations advance rapidly. There is nothing really wrong with rare earths..they got a bad wrap awhile ago because China was looking to restrict supply as they are the world's biggest supplier. I like Lynas because they have an Australian resource (richest known deposit in the world) and refine in relatively friendly Malaysia. They own the product from mine to market so should have good profit margins too.


I also follow Kandi (Chinese mini-EV producer) and BYD (Warren Buffet's EV baby in China).


I also think there must be opportunities in electric motor manufactures, electric cable manufactures, utility companies, electric bike/scooter manufacturers, etc, etc.
Not too big a fan of battery companies or charging companies... as who can really pick who will come up with the magic battery (they all claim to have the secret sauce after all) and I believe (after driving an EV for over 10 years) that the majority of all charging will be done at home in your garage, especially as range increases, meaning that charging companies may lose out as EV technology advances.
I do worry a bit about the lithium play as who knows if supercaps or something else will eventually disrupt here. I think lithium is probably the play though for the next 2-5 years perhaps.


Interested to hear what other companies you guys may think have potential!
Let's all profit from this beneficial move towards sustainable transportation!


Cheers

 

[xhawk101]

Hi guys,
I posted this on TeslaMotors.com as well to try and get as much participation as we can as I believe there are many opportunities for us all to profit from the move to EV's...here goes...


I, like many others here on this forum no doubt, believe that the eventual shift from ICE vehicles to EV's is inevitable and only a matter of time now.
Tesla and SolarCity are already a decent part of my investment portfolio but I was wondering if we might all pool together here to use our collective knowledge of EV's and EV related tech to help each other make wise investments in other companies that stand to benefit from the EV "tide rising" so to speak?


To keep posts from being too long let's just start with two or three of your favorite picks besides Tesla and SolarCity, explain why you think they are good value and allow people to do their own research based on that.


I guess I should go first.
As I am from New Zealand I have better access to the Australian stock market than US so I am thinking about:


1. GXY - Galaxy Resources Limited - an Aussie lithium miner with lithium carbonate (for battery use) refinery in China. Accident at refinery recently has brought stock to its knees along with some financial difficulties. If lithium demand rises exponentially in the next few years though I would imagine this stock could move north quite quickly. Very speculative as just a penny stock.


2. LYC - Lynas Corp - An Aussie rare earths miner and refiner with a new state of the art facility in Malaysia (largest in world outside of China). Unfortunately they have had some issues with the Malaysian government with permits so had to delay opening their new facility. This has hurt the share price. All issues seem to be cleared up now so may be a good time to buy. Rare earths are needed for many electronic devices. In addition to the increased adoption of EV's I see our world getting only more digital and more proliferated with electronic devices. Especially as Asia, India, and other developing nations advance rapidly. There is nothing really wrong with rare earths..they got a bad wrap awhile ago because China was looking to restrict supply as they are the world's biggest supplier. I like Lynas because they have an Australian resource (richest known deposit in the world) and refine in relatively friendly Malaysia. They own the product from mine to market so should have good profit margins too.


I also follow Kandi (Chinese mini-EV producer) and BYD (Warren Buffet's EV baby in China).


I also think there must be opportunities in electric motor manufactures, electric cable manufactures, utility companies, electric bike/scooter manufacturers, etc, etc.
Not too big a fan of battery companies or charging companies... as who can really pick who will come up with the magic battery (they all claim to have the secret sauce after all) and I believe (after driving an EV for over 10 years) that the majority of all charging will be done at home in your garage, especially as range increases, meaning that charging companies may lose out as EV technology advances.
I do worry a bit about the lithium play as who knows if supercaps or something else will eventually disrupt here. I think lithium is probably the play though for the next 2-5 years perhaps.


Interested to hear what other companies you guys may think have potential!
Let's all profit from this beneficial move towards sustainable transportation!


Cheers

Good idea! Glad I have kandi (kndi) up 40% today! It's the Chinese tesla...appears to have much more upside still IMO


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[kevin99]

Good idea! Glad I have kandi (kndi) up 40% today! It's the Chinese tesla...appears to have much more upside still IMO


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I have KDNI too. But it is no Tesla. I sold it today. Just don't have much info in term of how to play it. I am 99% on TSLA.

 

[marvinat0rz]

At some point, I think buying out-of-the-money put options in the most backwards and change-resistant established automaker you can find will be a good bet. My prediction is that we are in for disruptive change, and I think the market's realization of this will be violent. "Established truths" like gasoline being forever are always where the "black swan" type events happen. We are not there yet, though, and this is very dependent on both the company and the timing. The macroeconomic climate could also play a part.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Re LYC: keep in mind that Tesla doesn't use rare earths in its cars (unless you call the cobalt in the battery cells a rare earth). No permanent magnets in the Model S, and I doubt that will change going forward. Still, as the OP noted, rare earth demand is only going one direction, and the Chinese have the incentive and ability to keep prices fairly high (much as the Saudis do with oil).

 

[Seattle]

Re LYC: keep in mind that Tesla doesn't use rare earths in its cars (unless you call the cobalt in the battery cells a rare earth). No permanent magnets in the Model S, and I doubt that will change going forward. Still, as the OP noted, rare earth demand is only going one direction, and the Chinese have the incentive and ability to keep prices fairly high (much as the Saudis do with oil).

I agree that rare earths should be increasingly valuable, and the attempted chinese monopoly should only spur production in other countries. I thought molycorp (mcp) would go somewhere. anyone understand their business situation?

 

[ppl]

There are advantages in building new tech but can also take advantage of decrease in old technology. Specifically once evs like tesla shows way the residual values on premium ice cars will decrease. This would cause increase in lease rates and companies loosing money on current leases since rates are based on residual rates. Both will accelerate decreased production and decreased profits.

 

[jaanton]

Problem with this is the 'too big to fail' phenomenon. As long as the gubment will prop up the old way of doing things that's a risk to betting on the demise of the old tech. How many times do the ICE makers have to be beat up to get the message? They need to see where the market is going and be prepared for it. The regulator may push them, and they push back. In the end though the market will be a lot crueler than the regulators. Seen it before, bets on it happening again? If gasoline goes to $7/gal I'll bet that congress gives the ICE makers all the capital they need to convert to EVs in record time.

At some point, I think buying out-of-the-money put options in the most backwards and change-resistant established automaker you can find will be a good bet.

 

[deonb]

I have KDNI too. But it is no Tesla. I sold it today. Just don't have much info in term of how to play it. I am 99% on TSLA.

Hahaha.

I just bought KNDI today just before the market closed, but I'm mostly just trading TSLA and TSLA calls otherwise. So for some reason when I saw the $6.50 price for KNDI I was thinking in my head TSLA options, so times 100, right. So ok, figured I'll start off with 5 contracts just to see how things go.

Yeah, needless to say - those aren't contracts... Now I'm the proud owner of 5 shares of KNDI. It will have to almost double for me to make my commission back.

Ah well. Such is life .

 

[kenliles]

Hahaha.

I just bought KNDI today just before the market closed, but I'm mostly just trading TSLA and TSLA calls otherwise. So for some reason when I saw the $6.50 price for KNDI I was thinking in my head TSLA options, so times 100, right. So ok, figured I'll start off with 5 contracts just to see how things go.

Yeah, needless to say - those aren't contracts... Now I'm the proud owner of 5 shares of KNDI. It will have to almost double for me to make my commission back.

Ah well. Such is life .

I can relate to that scenario- both forward and in reverse unfortunately

 

[xhawk101]

Hahaha.

I just bought KNDI today just before the market closed, but I'm mostly just trading TSLA and TSLA calls otherwise. So for some reason when I saw the $6.50 price for KNDI I was thinking in my head TSLA options, so times 100, right. So ok, figured I'll start off with 5 contracts just to see how things go.

Yeah, needless to say - those aren't contracts... Now I'm the proud owner of 5 shares of KNDI. It will have to almost double for me to make my commission back.

Ah well. Such is life .

Buy more candy


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[teddyg]

Has anybody done any research into electric cable manufacturers or electric motor manufacturers? I imagine the global shift to EV's could only benefit these types of companies. At least they are already in the right field and might benefit from the "EV tide rising" as I mentioned originally. May not be crazy upside but a pretty safe bet that demand for their products should increase long term I would think.