My Tesla Investment Thesis 2.0: Tesla's Monopoly Potential

[FrankSG]

My Tesla Investment Thesis 2.0: Tesla's Monopoly Potential

Dear TMC,

I've spent the last week and a half working 12+ hours per day on the follow-up to my Tesla Investment Thesis from six months ago, and I'm happy to announce it's finally done.

It's pretty much bigger and better, and I have no doubt you'll learn a bunch and enjoy reading it. Here are just a few of the topics it covers:

• A deep dive into how autonomy works
• Tesla's most crucial competitive advantages
• An in-depth look into what is needed for the Tesla Network to succeed

So go check it out!

 

[cassiopeia]

This is an amazing piece of work. Thank you for sharing. I’ve collected together a subset of this information for talks that I give about our front row seat to see the disruption of an industry (or industries), but you’ve taken this to an entirely new level. Very impressive!!

 

[Bobfitz1]

IMO your Investment Thesis 2.0 is outstanding and thought provoking. I plan to give it a second read and include a few sections I skipped.

The only bit that I would disagree with some confidence is where you write:

"It's definitely a long term thing, but I think that if Tesla succeeds in their automotive business, the chance that they announce plans to produce an electric aircraft by 2035 might be as high as 80-90%. After all, their CEO also just happens to be the lead designer at the world's number one rocket company, so he knows a thing or two about aerospace engineering."

I've been following Elon Musk since he founded SpaceX and Tesla and I'm sure he is NOT going to wait long at all after Tesla battery development efforts create and begin producing batteries with energy density 400-500 Wh/kg, to begin building the EVTOL jets he has said he has designs in mind to build.
We will know better after Investor Battery day, but my guess is Tesla will be able to make batteries with the requisite energy density in 4 - 5 years. Maybe sooner. Musk has shown several times that he never says "this has to wait, my plate is already full". If Tesla gets EVTOL capable batteries first and can mass produce them in Terawatt quantities, he is going to use the extraordinary talent pool and technology of SpaceX to build commercial EVTOLs years before any other company is able to compete.

The operating cost of EVTOLs compared to fuel burning jets is going to disrupt the airflight industry as completely as EV will ICE. Master Plan Part Cinq by 2030 or 35 may be using his personal wealth and his companies resources to establish the permanent colony on Mars, rather than wait for Earth governments to fund that. Just as with disrupting / transforming the automotive industry, he will show it can be done and let others join when and if they decide they must. I would bet that one of the items in Master Plan Cinq is to locate asteroids with mostly metal composition, knock off chunks that can be returned, refined and sold on Earth to further fund the colony's growth.

 

[FrankSG]

Thanks cassiopeia and Bob! That means a lot! I'm glad to hear both of you loved it so much!

"It's definitely a long term thing, but I think that if Tesla succeeds in their automotive business, the chance that they announce plans to produce an electric aircraft by 2035 might be as high as 80-90%. After all, their CEO also just happens to be the lead designer at the world's number one rocket company, so he knows a thing or two about aerospace engineering."

This specific section was quoted from my first blog in June of 2019 actually. I was a bit more reserved back then, and I agree it could happen in the next decade. It'll probably be dependent on available battery supply as you say, in addition to achieving the required energy density.

"this has to wait, my plate is already full"

He has said "too many fish to fry" a few times on Twitter with regards to software features, but yeah.... SpaceX + Tesla + The Boring Company + Neuralink.... he'd be a legend doing just one of those, but all 4? Just woow

 

[Amanda Lewis]

My Tesla Investment Thesis 2.0: Tesla's Monopoly Potential

Dear TMC,

I've spent the last week and a half working 12+ hours per day on the follow-up to my Tesla Investment Thesis from six months ago, and I'm happy to announce it's finally done.

It's pretty much bigger and better, and I have no doubt you'll learn a bunch and enjoy reading it. Here are just a few of the topics it covers:

• A deep dive into how autonomy works
• Tesla's most crucial competitive advantages
• An in-depth look into what is needed for the Tesla Network to succeed

So go check it out!

I am glad that you wrote your dissertation so quickly, I can’t. I've been trying to do it for a month but so far unsuccessfully

 

[FrankSG]

I am glad that you wrote your dissertation so quickly, I can’t. I've been trying to do it for a month but so far unsuccessfully

An actual dissertation for school/uni?

I wrote this of my own volition, so you can't really compare that to a uni dissertation that you have no choice but to write.

Also, Tesla is my favorite thing to write about, and I'd imagine your dissertation subject is not Tesla.

But good luck with yours!