Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[erthquake]

This is an interesting little twist: Tesla Hosts Lobbying Group Shunned by Ford Over Climate Stance

Hunt, a lawyer who previously did work for ClearPath, said the ALEC energy project is driven by the belief that free-market values and private innovation "can offer solutions to environmental challenges" more successfully than top-down regulations."

Of course they can offer solutions, but only if there's financial incentive. The past has shown, in general, that regulation is the only way to incentivize saving the environment. The will for the Clean Air and Environmental Acts weren't going to come from the free market. Musk is one of the notable exceptions.

I like this move by Tesla. A minnie pie in the Big Oil face.

 

[EinSV]

Just mainland china

They sold 15K S+X in first 9 months

Do you have a source for this? ev-sales.blogspot says 6,954 Model S registrations in China through the end of October. EV Sales: China.

I think their China data may be a little behind so if you have a better source that would be great to see.

 

[I Am Rolling]

Moderator Input:

Welcome to the forum, I Am Rolling. Although others are continually trying to thwart the forum rules, any politicizing of discussions is absolutely forbidden. The only exception is one that otherwise is laser-focused on the thread at hand (in this case, TSLA stock price).

You will always be tempted by others to join the Dark Side. Do not. Or, as native English speakers might say - Acceptance Is Futile.

Apologies, I should have been clearer with my Trump remark. I explained in my post above to "Value Ev" what I meant: Trump (maybe) means bad business for Tesla.

But I'm guessing that Trump has been discussed a lot in this forum, so I will not continue with that.

Sorry.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Yes, it is indeed a roller coaster ride. And being new to the stock market, I'm not liking it.

That's something you'll need to get past if you want to invest in Tesla. It's very easy to get scared, sell when it's low and then sit on the sidelines and watch the share price jump back up again.

I don't really try to play the short term game with Tesla. It's almost impossible to say where the share price is headed. If I have to hold for a year or two, I'm comfortable with that.

But the plan is to stay long, or go out now and come back (to stay long) when we are getting closer to M3.

That sounds like a mistake. The share price could be at 400 before Model 3 deliveries start. You have no way of knowing when it will start to climb. It could happen tomorrow, or it could happen two years from now. If you're not holding shares there's always the risk of missing out.

My strategy is basically something like:

- Buy and hold a comfortable number of shares.
- Buy additional shares at $10-20 intervals whenever the price drops below 200.
- Sell the additional shares at $10-20 intervals whenever the price goes above 250.

I haven't been doing many transactions recently, but I expect 2017 to be a very good year.

 

[Value Ev]

Q4 looks like it could be good too.

How does it look good?

I know there was discussion about the InsideEV numbers, particularly the Tesla strategy is to shift deliveries early in the quarter overseas.

Is that a new strategy?
Don't they do they every year?

For instance looking at Q4 2015 vs. this quarter

2015: QTD: 4600 (US only)
2015: Total Q4: 17,400 (Worldwide)

2016: QTD: 3950 (US only)
2016: "Plan Q4" 25000 (Worldwide)

They are down 650 just in the US vs. last year, but expect to do 7.6k more (world wide) overall?
That could work if the mix of delivery shift (focus more on Europe vs. US early in the quarter) is very dramatically different than it was in 2015.

Secondly, looking at Q3, the last month (US only) they certainly did spike up in the last month, a little bit more than the first two months combined. However, that didn't happen last year, same quarter.

The second question is the level of overlap in the S market vs. the X. How much did the X take away from S sales vs. expand the market by attracting buyers who wouldn't consider the S. If it isn't that much of an expansion, then the question is how much will the 3 take away from the S?

 

[Value Ev]

FYI, there is no chance of Bolt bettering record of Volt vis-a-vis Model S that is multiples of it's price.

The Volt sold twice as many than the S did in the last two months.
With tax breaks, the Bolt is less expensive than the Volt.

 

[kehlKroos]

The Volt sold twice as many than the S did in the last two months.
With tax breaks, the Bolt is less expensive than the Volt.

volt also sold twice than S in April and May

then what happens in total

lol

And volt msrp is 33k with 7.5K rebate

how can it be expensive than a 37.5k bolt lol

 

[AudubonB]

I Am Rolling:

Once again, welcome to the forum. AND....after reading your bio post, I know why you chose your name!


I wonder who else has figured it out.....



Latin Is your friend, people. Don't neglect your Latin.....

 

[techmaven]

The Volt sold twice as many than the S did in the last two months.
With tax breaks, the Bolt is less expensive than the Volt.

You have to data smooth. Do you believe that Tesla will sell more in December than in November? Do you believe that the Volt would be able to catch that amount?

 

[Value Ev]

volt also sold twice than S in April and May

then what happens in total

lol

And volt msrp is 33k with 7.5K rebate

how can it be expensive than a 37.5k bolt lol

Do hybrids get the full 7.5k rebate? I could be wrong, but I thought that was only for 100% EV.

 

[kehlKroos]

Do hybrids get the full 7.5k rebate? I could be wrong, but I thought that was only for 100% EV.

FOR VOLT YES LOL

 

[Value Ev]

You have to data smooth. Do you believe that Tesla will sell more in December than in November? Do you believe that the Volt would be able to catch that amount?

The question was whether the Bolt could "bettering record of Volt vis-a-vis Model S"

I believe the Bolt will do better than the Volt in competing with the S, even though the Volt is no slouch.

 

[JRP3]

I Am Rolling:

Once again, welcome to the forum. AND....after reading your bio post, I know why you chose your name!


I wonder who else has figured it out.....

Anyone who read his first post?

And btw, not that it matters so much. I work at Volvo Cars in Sweden, hence the name I Am Rolling (=Volvo in Latin)

 

[kehlKroos]

The question was whether the Bolt could "bettering record of Volt vis-a-vis Model S"

I believe the Bolt will do better than the Volt in competing with the S, even though the Volt is no slouch.

yes more ugly,much smaller, much more expensive, can not drive long distance, similar performance

Bolt definitely will do better than the Volt

So dumb

 

[Yggdrasill]

The question was whether the Bolt could "bettering record of Volt vis-a-vis Model S"

I believe the Bolt will do better than the Volt in competing with the S, even though the Volt is no slouch.

Neither the Volt nor the Bolt competes agains the Model S. Model 3 - sure, to some degree.

 

[techmaven]

How does it look good?

I know there was discussion about the InsideEV numbers, particularly the Tesla strategy is to shift deliveries early in the quarter overseas.

Is that a new strategy?
Don't they do they every year?

For instance looking at Q4 2015 vs. this quarter

2015: QTD: 4600 (US only)
2015: Total Q4: 17,400 (Worldwide)

2016: QTD: 3950 (US only)
2016: "Plan Q4" 25000 (Worldwide)

They are down 650 just in the US vs. last year, but expect to do 7.6k more (world wide) overall?
That could work if the mix of delivery shift (focus more on Europe vs. US early in the quarter) is very dramatically different than it was in 2015.

While it is tempting to look at it that way, it's not really informative.

I'll reiterate. With AP2 release, I am assuming that Tesla planned a factory shutdown and did not produce vehicles from Oct 1 to Oct 11, the day before the AP2 announcement. Assuming they then start building AP2 vehicles, after getting prepared to do so in the previous week and a half. They exited Q3 with a 5,500 vehicle overhang. I am assuming by wording, these are not demo/inventory vehicles.

Oct has ~2400 deliveries from the 5,500 overhang in US and Europe. Assume that 2,500 is delivered in Asia. ev-sales.blogspot.com reports ~1,100 Model S in China for October. They don't seem to track the Model X and I think the X is more popular at this point.

Factory builds 3 weeks worth of AP2 vehicles for Asia and Europe. We see production reports for Europe, including UK and AUS sig RHD Model X during this period. At a slower than Q3 pace, I'm assuming 2k/week which is 6,000 vehicles. These vehicles start to arrive in November, but really arrive in Dec.

Anything left over of the 5,500 overhang is also delivered in Nov.

Then the factory builds US AP2 vehicles in November. They start to arrive in mid November, but we really see about 1.5 weeks of production arrive due to slower shipping used right now. Between Nov 1 and Dec 31, there's 8.5 weeks. Assume 1.5 weeks cannot be utilized, either due to Thanksgiving or logistics at the end of quarter. Also use a 2k/week average production rate (they were at 2.1k/week in Q3). That's 14,000 vehicles for the U.S. market.

5,500 + 6,000 + 14,000 = 25,500.

Note that Tesla did not provide production guidance for Q4. But they did provide Q4 delivery guidance on Oct. 26th.

 

[Value Ev]

FOR VOLT YES LOL

Thank you for clarifying.
I knew that some didn't but didn't know specifically about the Volt.
It is in california where the volt gets a smaller state rebate ($1500 vs. 2500 for a full EV)

 

[kehlKroos]

Neither the Volt nor the Bolt competes agains the Model S. Model 3 - sure, to some degree.

cannot competes against model 3


A chevy sonic competes against bmw 3, and sonic's msrp is the same as bmw 3

how can this happen

lol

 

[AudubonB]

Anyone who read his first post?

Oh, unprintable!

 

[kehlKroos]

While it is tempting to look at it that way, it's not really informative.

I'll reiterate. With AP2 release, I am assuming that Tesla planned a factory shutdown and did not produce vehicles from Oct 1 to Oct 11, the day before the AP2 announcement. Assuming they then start building AP2 vehicles, after getting prepared to do so in the previous week and a half. They exited Q3 with a 5,500 vehicle overhang. I am assuming by wording, these are not demo/inventory vehicles.

Oct has ~2400 deliveries from the 5,500 overhang in US and Europe. Assume that 2,500 is delivered in Asia. ev-sales.blogspot.com reports ~1,100 Model S in China for October. They don't seem to track the Model X and I think the X is more popular at this point.

Factory builds 3 weeks worth of AP2 vehicles for Asia and Europe. We see production reports for Europe, including UK and AUS sig RHD Model X during this period. At a slower than Q3 pace, I'm assuming 2k/week which is 6,000 vehicles. These vehicles start to arrive in November, but really arrive in Dec.

Anything left over of the 5,500 overhang is also delivered in Nov.

Then the factory builds US AP2 vehicles in November. They start to arrive in mid November, but we really see about 1.5 weeks of production arrive due to slower shipping used right now. Between Nov 1 and Dec 31, there's 8.5 weeks. Assume 1.5 weeks cannot be utilized, either due to Thanksgiving or logistics at the end of quarter. Also use a 2k/week average production rate (they were at 2.1k/week in Q3). That's 14,000 vehicles for the U.S. market.

5,500 + 6,000 + 14,000 = 25,500.

Note that Tesla did not provide production guidance for Q4. But they did provide Q4 delivery guidance on Oct. 26th.

Tesla will deliver 26K minimum this Q