SpaceX vs. Everyone - ULA, NG, Boeing, Lockheed, etc.

[Grendal]

We’d be colonizing Jupiter’s moons!

I can't even imagine what SpaceX could have achieved with that same money. A Moonbase and the beginnings of a Mars colony from that amount comes to mind though. A good fleet of Starships and Super Heavies for sure.

 

[e-FTW]

After nearly $50 billion, NASA’s deep-space plans remain grounded

Imagine what SpaceX could have accomplished with that much money....

Am sure there were plenty of missed opportunities since Apollo, but this recent one is still pretty annoying in hindsight:

Only one time during this era did someone in power attempt to end NASA's efforts to develop a large rocket and spacecraft. In 2010, President Obama sought to cancel the Constellation Program, which entailed Orion, the smaller Ares I, and larger Ares V rocket. NASA's deputy administrator at the time, Lori Garver, and others fought hard for several months to push NASA toward development of other technologies needed for human landings on Mars or other worlds, such as in-space propulsion, but ultimately a bipartisan Congress wanted the development programs to remain.

And the end of the piece sums it up pretty well:

"As far as I'm concerned, SLS and Orion are doing their jobs of providing work for NASA centers and contractors and giving the US a sense of national pride to have a major goal to work toward," Forczyk said. "They are not meant to be quick, cost efficient, or sustainable. They are symbolic grand acts of a grand nation."

 

[TEG]

_________________________________________

________________________

"As far as I'm concerned, SLS and Orion are doing their jobs of providing work for NASA centers and contractors and giving the US a sense of national pride to have a major goal to work toward," Forczyk said. "They are not meant to be quick, cost efficient, or sustainable. They are symbolic grand acts of a grand nation."

_________________________________________

______________________

 

[e-FTW]

SLS incremental progress:
Boeing reaches milestone of firsts with forward join of NASA’s inaugural SLS Core Stage – NASASpaceFlight.com

First test fire still years away.

 

[Grendal]

The disruption of SpaceX on the Establishment has been felt in this military name change of EELV (Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle Vehicle) is now NSSL (National Security Space Launch) because expendable in the title is silly when you can recover some of the vehicle.

Eric Berger on Twitter

 

[Bobfitz1]

SLS incremental progress:
Boeing reaches milestone of firsts with forward join of NASA’s inaugural SLS Core Stage – NASASpaceFlight.com

First test fire still years away.

What a coincidence! The same year SpaceX will be testing Starship v2!

 

[e-FTW]

News about SLS from a Space Transportation Luncheon:
NASA reassessing date for first SLS launch - SpaceNews.com — SpaceNews

One aspect that is very likely to contribute to delays is the upper stage. They are trying to adapt it to co-manisted payloads like parts of the Lunar Gateway. Which can be tricky since very little is known about that project and its components:

Boeing said last October that it had slowed down work on the EUS at the request of NASA, and was looking at ways to refine the stage’s design in order to increase its performance. That would enable it to increase the amount of co-manifested payloads, such as elements of NASA’s planned lunar Gateway, it could carry on missions that also include the Orion spacecraft.

(Also, this shows how nuts this class of rockets will be: they want to co-manifest modules of a space station with the Orion capsule. Those are not exactly cubesats...)

I find it quite telling the director of NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center would mention it this way:

“A critical part of designing the upper stage is making sure we understand the mission and the components that we need to take and where we need to go,”

Like, “folks, can we know what this will be like and where we need to put it?”

 

[e-FTW]

And well, I'll just leave this here:

Funding has, in general, not been an obstacle for development of the SLS. A major factor in that has been the support of Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Shelby appeared briefly at the luncheon to introduce Singer.

“As chairman of the appropriations committee, I have more than a passing interest in what NASA does. And I have a little parochial interest, too, in what they do in Huntsville, Alabama,” where Marshall is based, he said. “Jody, you keep doing what you’re doing. We’ll keep funding you.”

 

[ecarfan]

Yep, that pretty much explains in a nutshell why SLS is still alive. Shelby isn’t shy about it: he provide the pork, ULA builds the barrel, er, I mean, rocket.

 

[bxr140]

One aspect that is very likely to contribute to delays is the upper stage. They are trying to adapt it to co-manisted payloads like parts of the Lunar Gateway. Which can be tricky since very little is known about that project and its components:

Semantics, perhaps, but the delay doesn't seem linked to the lunar gateway specifically, rather it seems as basic as "we need to sharpen our pencils on the EUS so it can lift more stuff".

On a randomly positive note, there's nothing like a big solid motor launch as a spectator. So, at least SLS has that going for it.

 

[e-FTW]

Loren Grush on Twitter

 

[e-FTW]

Eric Berger on Twitter

(Trying to post these in the proper threads, if I am not doing it right I blame Canada)

 

[ecarfan]

 

[e-FTW]

They make a good point:

Thing look very different suddenly: The Air Force will soon take bids for mid-2020s launches. It’s controversial — Ars Technica

And:

There's another wrinkle in this decision as well. As noted earlier, ULA, Blue Origin, and Northrop Grumman have received part of their Launch Service Agreement awards. However, for companies that don't make the cut for launch contracts between 2022 and 2026, the remainder of the development funding will be halted.

The Air Force says that all companies will be eligible to bid for the next phase of launch contracts after 2026. Yet to finalize development of their rockets, companies will either have to self-fund or likely drop out of future competitions. “From that standpoint, this really isn’t a five-year decision,” the source said. “It’s more like a 10- or a 15-year decision.”

 

[Cosmacelf]

Wow. How things change. SpaceX goes from upstart to incumbent in a couple of years.

 

[Grendal]

ULA and SpaceX.
Air Force firmly opposed to delaying National Security Space Launch competition - SpaceNews.com

 

[ecarfan]

ULA and SpaceX.
Air Force firmly opposed to delaying National Security Space Launch competition - SpaceNews.com

This caught my eye, quote: [Air Force Lt. Gen.]”Thompson gave another reason why the LSP can’t be delayed. ULA only has 12 RD-180 engines in inventory that can be used for national security launches awarded between now and 2022. Congress five years ago set the 2022 deadline for the Air Force to stop using the Russian-made RD-180 which is the main engine in ULA’s Atlas 5 rocket.” (Italics added by me)

Wait...ULA doesn’t re-use rocket engines? How can that be?

By making that statement, Thompson seems be saying that ULA will be one of the two providers awarded an NSSL contract, even though in theory the decision has not been made yet.

 

[bxr140]

Wait...ULA doesn’t re-use rocket engines? How can that be?

I mean, there's no need to bag on a Sig with an A-pack because it can only charge at 90kW and not 250kW....

Anyway, ~25 years ago [when the RD180 was chosen for Atlas] there was really no such thing other than the reusability of the SSME..if you want to call it that. And, ~25 years ago Russia's level of rocketry and materials knowledge was generally both superior and less expensive than American efforts, with the RD180 (presumably it was the 171 that did the selling) being an outstanding example of modern technology. Layer in global political benefits of a superior Russian motor on a superior American launcher and it really was the right marriage at the right time.

Anyway anyway, progress is just that. SpaceX has redefined rocketry, and the new crop of launch providers are solidifying SpaceX's forward looking concepts. For the sake of all involved, we can only hope the legacy companies don't Kodak themselves...

 

[Grendal]

BO really wants a piece of the action.
Air Force space launch competition caught in political crossfire - SpaceNews.com

And this has also pushed ULA to showing the first piece of Vulcan. Here is an article about this.
The first space-worthy Vulcan rocket is taking shape

 

[Grendal]

Elon met with the people running NORAD.
North American Aerospace Defense Command on Twitter