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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Excellent market review from a bullish perspective and of TSLA in particular. TSLA related discussion starts at 24:50 but the whole interview is worth watching. Buy and Hold!
Investor/speculator psychology is mirror opposite of November, 2021. anybody who talk about retiring on basis of TSLA currently will likely be laughed off and aspirations of buying islands will be considered semi-delusional.
which is exactly why i am so super bullish and bought LEAPS hand over fist last week
also: TSLA just closed over 50 day SMA and 10 day SMA crossed over 21 day
reminds me so much of Fall 2019. in fact i was wildly bullish on TSLA back in December 2019 when even Charles was bearish
 
Investor/speculator psychology is mirror opposite of November, 2021. anybody who talk about retiring on basis of TSLA currently will likely be laughed off and aspirations of buying islands will be considered semi-delusional.
which is exactly why i am so super bullish and bought LEAPS hand over fist last week
also: TSLA just closed over 50 day SMA and 10 day SMA crossed over 21 day
reminds me so much of Fall 2019. in fact i was wildly bullish on TSLA back in December 2019 when even Charles was bearish

Q - something I've always wondered - do you speak IRL like how you write posts on here?
 
I've shared this before, but energy doesn't look like it will ever be cheap in California. Even if electricity were generated for free, my public utility will still charge me $0.16/kWh to provide me with that "free" power using today's rates. I've got solar now, but life decisions have rendered my array size far too small for my current needs. I plan to leave the excessively taxed Golden state waaaaay before I could recoup a ROI to properly size my solar. I'll install proper solar on my future hill (no mountain here).

That is the short-term outlook. Consider the current technology, the current trend, and the fact that I have now used "current" three times in this sentence to lead up to this also being a pun.

Prices for batteries and solar panels will continue to be coaxed by Wright's Law lower and lower as production increases to meet the demand f a world full of people who see the benefit in divorcing their power company offers.

Eventually, every new structure (residential/commercial) will include solar and storage as part of the construction. Over time society will transition toward self-sufficiency, whether at the building level or the community level (possibly both) and central power generation and transmission will be less of a factor.

There is already legislation popping up requiring solar and battery accommodation for new construction. I expect this trend to continue.

Robotaxi use, and many people's choice to no longer own a car, will result in the retirement of many, many acres of parking lots. These can easily and profitably be converted to solar and battery sites while simultaneously providing shade for commercial and entertainment sites.

A lot of this isn't going to happen in my lifetime, but, the foundation is being laid and the trend will continue toward free energy because it increases the bottom line of any entity (personal, governmental, corporate) that evaluates the choice over a long term horizon.

The current power companies will be in the same pickle that the ICE OEMs are. They will be forced to downsize and find their place in the new system, or, simply go away. It will become economically unsound to buy their product for ever increasing prices when there is a less costly alternative.

What you are experiencing now is temporary, and real, but it may not be like this in ten years.

If instant gratification is what you are looking for, then voting with your wallet and moving to someplace that is already more accommodating is a good choice.
 
Anyone else feel Tesla still hasn't mastered the art of sandbagging WS yet? While *I* appreciate the full transparency with their impressive goals, it feels like reality often disappoints vs Elon's aggressive goals. Examples of the extremely aggressive goals include: battery day, cybertruck ramp, roadster ramp, semi ramp, gen 2 anything, FSD, Optimus, etc. Feels like WS takes this transparency and creates expectations that Tesla can't actually match. Don't confuse this comment and think I'm not impressed with Tesla's accomplishments, rather comparing their optimistic goals vs delivery and how TSLA surprises WS to the upside....
Time will tell. I have been thinking Tesla and Elon have been making good progress in this area. I have a suspicion that the timeline for delivery (of things Tesla) is shorter than we are being told. Time will tell if my hunch is correct or if I'm suffering from delusions...
 
There was some discussion about Ford splitting its EV and ICE business into two separate businesses. Perhaps there is a long game here that people aren't realizing: Let's assume Ford will lose their ass for a few years on the EV side. However, at some point they become profitable. Around the same time, the ICE side starts tanking. With two separate companies, Ford can abandon the ICE side and go out of business, which won't matter at all because they simply then fully embrace the new, profitable, unhindered EV business. The new Ford. 100% EV. Lean, mean, and profitable. Meanwhile, the rest of legacy has the old ICE ball and chain dragging their EV/ICE hybrid monstrosity company down for many more years.
 
Round number napkin math plus all in cost including benefits.
My daughter works at Starbucks, not a manager, and base W2 wages are $48,000/year. Add in health insurance costs, payroll taxes cost, etc etc etc and I'm sure she is in the 60-$70k cost range as an employee for Starbucks. Surely Tesla pays better than baristas? Point is I agree, its not hard to imagine average worker cost for Tesla could be approaching $100k.
 
We need to automate/robotize entire value chains and make the products effectively free, that should be the real goal and Elon has previously speculated about what "the economy" even means if this becomes reality.

And then we can move towards a Star Trek-like society where money doesn't exist, because money is just a unit of exchange facilitating trade in a capitalist economy. If everything is automated and done by robots, money doesn't even need to be a thing.
You're missing money’s actual usefulness … it is information. If the price of something spikes, that is an information signal to the economy to make more of it since it is in demand.

Prices are essential to a functioning economy so that the economy knows what to allocate resources to. That’s the fundamental problem with no money systems like communism and socialism. Since there are no undistorted price signals, you end up with malinvestment. Ie. Huge amount of resources are spent on things that aren’t good investments or on things that people don’t want or need.

We will always need money.
 
You're missing money’s actual usefulness … it is information. If the price of something spikes, that is an information signal to the economy to make more of it since it is in demand.

Prices are essential to a functioning economy so that the economy knows what to allocate resources to. That’s the fundamental problem with no money systems like communism and socialism. Since there are no undistorted price signals, you end up with malinvestment. Ie. Huge amount of resources are spent on things that aren’t good investments or on things that people don’t want or need.

We will always need money.
If robots and automation provide everything the world needs and are self-sustaining, they can monitor inventory and needs and produce more of that thing where necessary.

Elon was speculating about this back during Investor Day where he figured robots could eventually outnumber humans. In a world where robots outnumber humans and can do all sorts of work, that's likely a world where everything is available to everyone -- "the economy" loses meaning and currency its purpose as a unit of exchange facilitating trade in the economic system that exists to provide the goods/services the world needs. I think UBI would be a stepping stone to that if anything, a bridge between the reality of today and a world where everything is "free" because it's endlessly produced by robots and automation.

It's not quite as clean as the replicators from Star Trek, but it would effectively be the same thing
 
I dare you to live in Scandinavia for 20 years and not assimilate.

1.5 years for me and I was afraid of strangers talking to me.
Iceland is not part Scandinavia, and Karen can be easily found on the web as she’s never made any effort to hide:


 
Too bad they didn’t think to do that YEARS ago when I posted right here on this forum that was the only way to go.

😂 Good luck with that. Should have ripped the bandaid off instead of trying to be delicate.

Really? How’s that working for them right now?

That’s a problem, don’t you think? Why is it they can’t sell the Lightning to their current truck owners? I mean, Tesla doesn’t have any truck owners so they’ll be growing a new ‘customer base’. 🙄 And they’ll grow it fast, so you better hope your beloved Ford gets the lead out of their derrière because CT will outsell the Lightning all day long, every day right from the get go. It’ll be like Ford doesn’t know a thing about growing a ‘customer base’.

Tick, tock.
It was a surprise to Ford but the Lightning appealed to non truck buyers. I ask this all the time when out meeting farmers and landowners. I'm in countryside so pretty much every client owns at least 1 truck. None have bought, many are curious. The key feature they ask about is using the truck as a backup power source. I think a couple might buy one for just that feature. Also to note...they both drive audi.

We'll see if CT outsells Lightning. I mean it should. I had 3 reservations for them but I could not buy one..still can't. So I bought the lightning but still have those reservations. Anyway, mine works and I'm glad to not be burning diesel for daily work trips.

I'm sure CT buyers will also not be normal truck buyers.
Ditto to @Krugerrand .
Saying and doing are completely different.
Prototypes are easy, production is hard.
Production is hard, scaling is hell.
Scaling is hell, making a profit is nearly impossible.
EM agreed that they are doing the best of the others, agreed.
However since then it is very apparent all of the OEM'S are backtracking.
Watch that 6 minute clip of Farley.
If you can't see what he is Now saying vs. Their "Plans" have done a 180 degree shift, then we will have to agree to disagree.
Kudos to Farley for being upfront about their Ev disclosures in profits or lack thereof.
Agree to disagree. Neat thing is you'll know in 2-3 how it plays out. Personally I hope to see at least 1 of the USA OEMs survive.
 
Musk has said on multiple occasions that Universal Basic Income (UBI) is probably necessary at some point.

Funding that is going to have to come from the profits of successful enterprise.

Maybe that’s not a per-bot tax, but effect is eventually the same.
Except it won't work. There has to be challenge and a purpose for humans to exist.
 
Definitely upheaval is coming.
What kind of "upheaval?"

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There was some discussion about Ford splitting its EV and ICE business into two separate businesses. Perhaps there is a long game here that people aren't realizing: Let's assume Ford will lose their ass for a few years on the EV side. However, at some point they become profitable. Around the same time, the ICE side starts tanking. With two separate companies, Ford can abandon the ICE side and go out of business, which won't matter at all because they simply then fully embrace the new, profitable, unhindered EV business. The new Ford. 100% EV. Lean, mean, and profitable. Meanwhile, the rest of legacy has the old ICE ball and chain dragging their EV/ICE hybrid monstrosity company down for many more years.
Neighbor's wife works for Ford. He told me several months ago, way before they split the finances out, that they would split and folks would choose their preference based on how much they want to transfer into the new. But my gut says they won't attempt this until the EV side looks like it has a chance. Maybe that's why they just started publishing the data vs actually splitting shares quite yet.